4040 Sun Burst Ln · Katy, TX 77493

$334,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,168 sqft · SingleFamily · 358 Days on market

Built 2025 Good condition $155/sqft · 20% below area Est $416k · 20% under ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• Schools +6.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome you to the Kendall floorplan located in Sunterra Lakes This two- story house features four bedrooms, two and a half bathrooms, a game room and a two-car garage. This house spans 2,168 square feet. Upon entering the house, you will notice the stairway and powder room next to the foyer. At the end of the foyer sits the family room, dining room, and L-shaped kitchen. This is an open-concept living and dining space, making this house perfect for hosting events or celebrations with family and neighbors. The kitchen is equipped with vinyl flooring, a kitchen island, and a walk-in pantry. Opposite the dining room is the utility room, which has vinyl flooring and space for a washer, dryer and some storage. The primary bedroom can be accessed via the family room and is complete with carpet flooring and two bright windows opening to the backyard. The primary bedroom opens to the primary bathroom, which has vinyl flooring, a standing shower, a tile tub, a frosted window, a double sink, and a separate toilet room. The bathroom leads to the walk-in closet, which has carpet flooring and provides enough space for clothing and storage. The upstairs game room has carpet flooring and two bright windows opening to the side of the home. A hallway branches off from the game room, leading to the secondary bathroom and three secondary bedrooms.

Key facts

• Kendall floorplan
• Utility room
• Primary bathroom

Tags

• KENDALL FLOORPLAN
• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• UTILITY ROOM
• PRIMARY BATHROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $335k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-388 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $279k (16.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $244k (27.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $244k (27.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.5% in Katy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#111 in TX, #3,613 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities D, commute F.
• Royal ISD (rural): math 23% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #744 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Royal El (math 27% / reading 20%, grade F, #3,247 of 4,322 statewide, top 76%, 762 students, 78% FRL); Royal J H (math 22% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,341 of 1,662 statewide, top 82%, 593 students, 73% FRL); Royal H S (math 17% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 842 students, 71% FRL) — zoned schools at 74% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 4013 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 483 units permitted in Waller County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Waller County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 358 days — a 12% lower offer ($295k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $28k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $243,951 (27.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 358 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.96%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $416,177
• List price: $334,990
• Delta: -15.90%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2000 Solstice Landing Dr	0.12mi	4/2.5	2,263 (+4%)	1mo	$255,991	$113	86
3053 Helios Haven Dr	0.02mi	4/2.0	2,035 (-6%)	2mo	$322,670	$159	85
3037 Duskshine Dr	0.12mi	4/2.5	2,015 (-7%)	0mo	$255,990	$127	82
3092 Duskshine Dr	0.47mi	4/2.5	2,263 (+4%)	2mo	$275,990	$122	69
2084 Blue Mar Dr	0.21mi	4/3.0	2,428 (+12%)	2mo	$469,997	$194	66
1016 Star Skye Dr	0.24mi	4/3.0	1,912 (-12%)	1mo	$330,800	$173	66
3100 Duskshine Dr	0.46mi	4/2.5	2,015 (-7%)	1mo	$248,991	$124	66
3032 Helios Haven Dr	0.19mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,942 (-10%)	3mo	$279,990	$144	64
1040 Star Skye Dr	0.28mi	4/3.0	1,912 (-12%)	2mo	$341,040	$178	64
1001 Sunlit Cir	0.43mi	4/2.5	2,406 (+11%)	3mo	$363,540	$151	59
3101 Duskshine Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,880 (-13%)	2mo	$296,990	$158	46
3093 Duskshine Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,876 (-14%)	2mo	$325,990	$174	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-86,096
• Equity at exit: $49,948

10-year hold

• IRR: -43.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.43×
• Total profit: $-134,257
• Equity at exit: $28,964

Cash invested: $93,797 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 131 active · 57 under contract
• Months of supply: 17.1 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $330,000 ($155/sqft)
• Median days on market: 86 d
• This list price: 56% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +23.5% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77493

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 4013
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,440 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,757
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$419 /mo · $5,025/yr
• Insurance: −$140
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$512
• Net cashflow: $-388

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,930

Max offer price $278,871

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-156	-5% $-272	+0% $-388	+5% $-504	+10% $-619
Rent	-10% $-581	-5% $-484	+0% $-388	+5% $-291	+10% $-195
Rate	-1.0pp $-219	-0.5pp $-303	base $-388	+0.5pp $-475	+1.0pp $-563

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $83,748
• Closing costs: $10,050
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $334,990 Active 358 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $334,990 Active 357 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $334,990 Active 356 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $334,990 Active 355 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $334,990 Active 354 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $334,990 Active 353 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $334,990 Active 352 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $334,990 Active 351 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $334,990 Active 350 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $334,990 Active 349 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    pricedays on market $334,990 Active 348 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $351,990 Active 347 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $351,990 Active 346 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    pricedays on market $351,990 Active 345 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $349,990 Active 339 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $349,990 Active 338 DOM
17. 2026-09-02
    days on market $349,990 Active 336 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $349,990 Active 334 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $349,990 Active 332 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $349,990 Active 331 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $349,990 Active 330 DOM
22. 2026-08-26
    days on market $349,990 Active 329 DOM
23. 2026-08-25
    days on market $349,990 Active 328 DOM
24. 2026-08-24
    days on market $349,990 Active 327 DOM
25. 2026-08-23
    days on market $349,990 Active 326 DOM
26. 2026-08-22
    days on market $349,990 Active 325 DOM
27. 2026-08-21
    days on market $349,990 Active 324 DOM
28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $349,990 Active 323 DOM
29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $349,990 Active 322 DOM
30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $349,990 Active 321 DOM
31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $349,990 Active 320 DOM
32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $349,990 Active 319 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $349,990 Active 318 DOM
34. 2026-08-14
    days on market $349,990 Active 317 DOM
35. 2026-08-13
    days on market $349,990 Active 316 DOM
36. 2026-08-12
    days on market $349,990 Active 315 DOM
37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $349,990 Active 314 DOM
38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $349,990 Active 313 DOM
39. 2026-08-09
    days on market $349,990 Active 312 DOM
40. 2026-08-08
    days on market $349,990 Active 311 DOM
41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $349,990 Active 309 DOM
42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $349,990 Active 308 DOM
43. 2026-08-04
    days on market $349,990 Active 307 DOM
44. 2026-08-03
    days on market $349,990 Active 306 DOM
45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $349,990 Active 303 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $349,990 Active 301 DOM
47. 2026-07-28
    days on market $349,990 Active 300 DOM
48. 2026-07-26
    days on market $349,990 Active 298 DOM
49. 2026-07-24
    days on market $349,990 Active 296 DOM
50. 2026-07-23
    days on market $349,990 Active 295 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,274
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,765
• − Property taxes: −$5,025
• − Insurance: −$1,675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,342
• − Management: −$2,342
• − Depreciation: −$9,745
• Taxable loss: −$10,619
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,549
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,105/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $10,840–$32,520 screening

This Kendall floorplan home is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It has a cosmetic rehab level and requires minor maintenance. The highest-ROI updates include painting the exterior, replacing the vinyl flooring with hardwood, and installing smart home features.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Resale Replace vinyl flooring with hardwood — Improves aesthetics and adds value ↑
• Both Install smart home features — Enhances convenience and marketability ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

C Composite school gradezoned avg 63/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Huggins El B TX #321/4,322 Nat'l #6,217/41,679 Middle Dean Leaman J H School B TX #206/1,662 Nat'l #2,146/14,009 High Foster H S B TX #141/1,632 Nat'l #2,354/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Royal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4838190
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $41,059
• Composite: 19.55/100
• National rank: #8760
• State rank: #744 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 76/100

Livability — Katy

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #111
• US rank: #3613

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 60,772 people
• City population: 413,575
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 71,484
• Household income: $118,464
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 21% of renters

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Population outlook (Waller County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 60,772 people
• By 2030: 67,616 · +11.3%
• By 2040: 82,283 · +35.4%
• By 2050: 98,276 · +61.7%
• By 2075: 142,860 · +135.1%
• By 2100: 175,596 · +188.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 36% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 16% Black 15% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 22% Vietnamese 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 4%

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Political lean MEDSL · Waller

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.0) · D 37.0% · R 62.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -25.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.0 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+28.6 2012: R+17.6 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -140.65%
• Current HPI: 233.1683
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.80%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-05 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-12-04 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-10-30 Price Changed $349,990 Zillow
• 2025-10-23 Price Changed $354,000 Zillow
• 2025-09-30 Listed $362,990 Zillow