153 W Warren Ave · Youngstown, OH 44507

$45,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 81 Days on market

Built 1920 0.41 ac lot Est $67k · 33% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.6/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity is knocking—loudly! Priced for a quick sale, this three-bedroom, 1.5-bath home is ready for a complete transformation. Bring your vision—this one needs a roof and full interior rehab. No interior photos available. Bonus: three parcels included in the sale!

Key facts

• Full interior rehab
• 0.41 acre lot
• Parking

Tags

• COMPLETE TRANSFORMATION
• FULL INTERIOR REHAB
• THREE PARCELS INCLUDED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $610 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $42k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 22.6% vs local median 7.0% in Youngstown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#99 in OH, #1,506 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F, employment F.
• Youngstown City (urban): math 8% / reading 17% proficiency, ranked #649 of 656 in OH (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 88% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 28 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 147 units permitted in Mahoning County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,109/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($26k/yr) (locally 17% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.8%/yr); year-one equity from $311 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $372 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mahoning County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-0.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($42k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $6k; list at $45k implies a 650% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $42,300 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 58.14%
• DSCR: 3.59
• GRM: 3.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $66,976
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
196 W Delason Ave	0.14mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,440 (-1%)	4mo	$89,000	$62	81
138 Regent St	0.08mi	3/1.5	1,404 (-4%)	9mo	$70,000	$50	80
52 W Warren Ave	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,444 (-1%)	9mo	$85,000	$59	80
555 W Evergreen Ave	0.54mi	3/1.0	1,418 (-3%)	3mo	$45,500	$32	68
611 Cohasset Dr	0.61mi	3/1.0	1,430 (-2%)	1mo	$16,001	$11	68
401 Chicago Ave	0.34mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,400 (-4%)	8mo	$80,000	$57	66
330 Garfield St	0.56mi	3/1.5	1,436 (-1%)	4mo	$86,000	$60	66
597 W Warren Ave	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,452 (-0%)	7mo	$55,000	$38	64
520 Kenmore Ave	0.59mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,440 (-1%)	3mo	$66,000	$46	61
137 Chicago Ave	0.23mi	3/2.5	1,668 (+15%)	4mo	$50,000	$30	56
605 W Warren Ave	0.55mi	3/1.5	1,312 (-10%)	5mo	$52,500	$40	52
515 Carroll St	0.74mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,524 (+5%)	10mo	$20,000	$13	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.83% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 59.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.84×
• Total profit: $35,835
• Equity at exit: $11,236

10-year hold

• IRR: 61.9%
• Equity multiple: 7.77×
• Total profit: $85,257
• Equity at exit: $12,120

Cash invested: $12,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 44507

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 28
• Price-to-rent: 3.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,109 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax from tax record: −$11 /mo · $130/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$233
• Net cashflow: $610

Break-even live

Break-even rent $336

Max offer price $45,000

Occupancy floor 40%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,250
• Closing costs: $1,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
546 Breaden St Youngstown, OH	3.0	1.0	1430	$1,080	$0.76	21d	1	0.74mi
540 Cameron Ave Youngstown, OH	4.0	2.0	1780	$1,300	$0.73	21d	1	0.92mi
911 Hawthorne St Youngstown, OH	3.0	1.0	1198	$1,080	$0.90	21d	1	1.02mi
913 Hawthorne St Youngstown, OH	3.0	1.0	1198	$1,080	$0.90	21d	1	1.02mi
512 E Philadelphia Ave Unit 1 Youngstown, OH	2.0	1.0	1200	$899	$0.75	21d	1	1.17mi
236 Hilton Ave Youngstown, OH	4.0	1.5	1488	$1,195	$0.80	21d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $45,000 Active 81 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $45,000 Active 80 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $45,000 Active 79 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $45,000 Active 78 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $45,000 Active 77 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $45,000 Active 75 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $45,000 Active 74 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $45,000 Active 72 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $45,000 Active 71 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $45,000 Active 70 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $45,000 Active 69 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $45,000 Active 65 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $45,000 Active 64 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $45,000 Active 63 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $45,000 Active 62 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $45,000 Active 61 DOM
17. 2026-05-19
    price $45,000
18. 2026-04-20
    price $55,000
19. 2026-04-13
    price $58,000
20. 2026-03-28
    listed $59,900 Active
21. 2025-11-21
    historical
22. 2025-11-07
    status Active
23. 2025-10-23
    status Pending
24. 2025-06-20
    price $55,000
25. 2025-06-09
    listed $65,000 Active
26. 2022-07-18
    price $41,000
27. 2022-07-06
    listed $46,900 Active
28. 2015-02-26
    soldstatus $6,000
29. 2015-02-20
    historical
30. 2015-02-05
    listed $6,500
31. 2012-11-29
    soldstatus $8,000
32. 2012-10-03
    listed $10,000
33. 2007-12-31
    soldstatus $6,500
34. 2006-04-20
    listed $12,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $130 · $11/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $416 · $35/mo
• Expected delta: +$286/yr (+$24/mo · 219.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,307
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,521
• − Property taxes: −$130
• − Insurance: −$225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,065
• − Management: −$1,065
• − Depreciation: −$1,309
• Taxable income: $6,993
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,678
• After-tax cash flow: $5,648/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Youngstown City
• NCES district ID: 3904516
• Math proficiency: 8% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 17% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $25,257
• Composite: 9.29/100
• National rank: #9858
• State rank: #649 of 656 in OH

Livability — Youngstown

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #99
• US rank: #1506

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Youngstown, OH
• County: Mahoning · 224,175 people
• City population: 28,503
• Metro: Youngstown-Warren, OH
• Population (ZIP): 4,402
• Household income: $25,767
• Rent vs Own: 53.9% rent · 46.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 17.1

Population outlook (Mahoning County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 223,932 people
• By 2030: 218,387 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 205,367 · -8.3%
• By 2050: 193,606 · -13.5%
• By 2075: 173,694 · -22.4%
• By 2100: 151,147 · -32.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 60% White 20% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 10%
• Common ancestry: Subsaharan African 2% Hispanic 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Mahoning

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.4) · D 44.9% · R 54.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.1pp toward R · 2008: 26.6pp · 2024: -9.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.4 2020: R+1.9 2016: D+3.0 2012: D+27.7 2008: D+26.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.83%
• Current HPI: 282.496
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+275.0% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $45,000 MLSNOW
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $55,000 MLSNOW
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $58,000 MLSNOW
• 2026-03-28 Listed $59,900 MLSNOW
• 2025-11-21 Listing Removed — MLSNOW
• 2025-11-07 Relisted — MLSNOW
• 2025-10-23 Pending — MLSNOW
• 2025-06-20 Price Changed $55,000 MLSNOW
• 2025-06-09 Listed $65,000 MLSNOW
• 2022-07-18 Price Changed $41,000 MLSNOW
• 2022-07-06 Listed $46,900 MLSNOW
• 2015-02-26 Sold (MLS) $6,000 MLSNOW
• 2015-02-20 Listing Removed — MLSNOW
• 2015-02-05 Listed $6,500 MLSNOW
• 2012-11-29 Sold (MLS) $8,000 MLSNOW
• 2012-10-03 Listed $10,000 MLSNOW
• 2007-12-31 Sold (MLS) $6,500 MLSNOW
• 2006-04-20 Listed $12,000 MLSNOW

Property tax history

-1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $130 · -11.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.