208 Alfredo St · San Juan, TX 78589

$165,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,205 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 70 Days on market

Built 1979 10,497 sqft lot $75/sqft · 32% below area Est $243k · 32% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

RENT-TO-OWN now available!! Located in the heart of San Juan, Texas this home sits on a large 0.24 acre lot. At only 3 minutes from expressway Interstae 2, this home offers lots of convinience. There is plenty of shopping, restaurants and schools only minutes away from the area. This 4 bedroom home boasts a total of 2,205 living square feet and a spacious patio that offers a lot of freedom.

Key facts

• Large lot
• Spacious patio
• 0.24 acre lot

Tags

• LARGE LOT
• SPACIOUS PATIO
• MINUTES FROM EXPRESSWAY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $262 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $155k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 3.4% in San Juan — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#294 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Pharr-San Juan-Alamo ISD (suburban): math 18% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #740 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 362 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $155,100 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.82%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $242,617
• List price: $165,000
• Delta: -31.99%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
208 Alfredo St	0.00mi	3/2.0	2,205 (0%)	9mo	$89,000	$40	93
115 Calle Del Jardin	0.32mi	3/3.0	2,376 (+8%)	5mo	$239,000	$101	64
2015 Buffalo St	0.25mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,322 (+5%)	9mo	$274,999	$118	63
408 Zebra Ct	0.27mi	3/2.5	1,886 (-14%)	11mo	$279,999	$148	52
1913 Buffalo Ave	0.29mi	3/2.5	1,952 (-12%)	24mo	$270,000	$138	45
1800 Windsor Dr	0.50mi	3/2.5	1,924 (-13%)	19mo	$305,000	$159	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-9,976
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $13,017
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78589

• Home prices YoY: -12.1%
• Active inventory: 362
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,810 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$233 /mo · $2,800/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$380
• Net cashflow: $262

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,478

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
207 E Garfield St San Juan, TX	4.0	3.0	1818	$1,900	$1.05	14d	1	0.32mi
1709 Calle Tulipan San Juan, TX	3.0	2.0	1841	$1,750	$0.95	43d	1	0.52mi
204 E Gomez Dr San Juan, TX	3.0	1.5	1464	$1,650	$1.13	14d	1	0.79mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-10
   days on market $165,000 Active 70 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Active 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $165,000 Active 68 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $165,000 Active 67 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $165,000 Active 63 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $165,000 Active 62 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $165,000 Active 61 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $165,000 Active 60 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $165,000 Active 59 DOM
10. 2026-04-01
    listed $165,000 Active 396-char remark

    Show marketing remark (396 chars)

    RENT-TO-OWN now available!! Located in the heart of San Juan, Texas this home sits on a large 0.24 acre lot. At only 3 minutes from expressway Interstae 2, this home offers lots of convinience. There is plenty of shopping, restaurants and schools only minutes away from the area. This 4 bedroom home boasts a total of 2,205 living square feet and a spacious patio that offers a lot of freedom.

11. 2026-02-16
    listed $165,000 Active
12. 2026-01-15
    listed $165,000 Active
13. 2025-09-23
    soldstatus Sold
14. 2025-09-23
    soldstatus
15. 2025-05-10
    status Pending
16. 2025-04-10
    price $89,000
17. 2024-10-25
    listed $105,000 Active
18. 2023-06-08
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,800 · $233/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,020 · $252/mo
• Expected delta: +$219/yr (+$18/mo · 7.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,719
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$2,800
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,738
• − Management: −$1,738
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $576
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$138
• After-tax cash flow: $3,011/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pharr-San Juan-Alamo ISD
• NCES district ID: 4834860
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -34.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $33,757
• Composite: 19.63/100
• National rank: #8744
• State rank: #740 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Juan

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #294
• US rank: #6725

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Juan, TX
• Population (ZIP): 39,958

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 97% Two or more races 43% White 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 94%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada
• Languages at home: 18% English-only · Spanish 82%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -32.82%
• Current HPI: 239.3829
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+57.1% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Listed $165,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2026-02-16 Listed $165,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2026-01-15 Listed $165,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-09-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-09-23 Sold (MLS) — MCALLENMLS
• 2025-05-10 Pending — MCALLENMLS
• 2025-04-10 Price Changed $89,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2024-10-25 Listed $105,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2023-06-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,800 · +9.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.