202 N 40th Ave Ave E · Duluth, MN 55804

$299,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,352 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 34 Days on market

Built 1924 4,792 sqft lot $222/sqft · 20% above area Est $305k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.7/30.0
• ARV discount +8.3/15.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Check out this beautifully updated home in Lakeside across from East High School. Hardwoods throughout, new fixtures, newer appliances, completely updated and painted. There is a tar driveway easement that is eight feet behind the house at far end of lot. The previous owner parked in the carport under deck , other vehicles fit behind the deck without blocking driveway. There is also licensed parking only permitted for residents on the street. Don't miss out on this Charmer!

Key facts

• Anderson windows
• Space for storage
• Oversized deck

Tags

• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• ANDERSON WINDOWS
• OVERSIZED DECK
• NATURAL GAS FIREPLACE
• RECREATION ROOM
• SPACE FOR STORAGE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No designated parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family detached residence; 2 stories
• Construction: Concrete and block construction; Asphalt shingle roof; Full basement
• Exterior features: Deck; Lot approximately 47 x 100 (0.11 acre)

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Radiant heating (natural gas)
• Interior features: Gas fireplace (1)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $517 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $300k).
• Recommended offer: $291k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 4.9% in Duluth — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#36 in MN, #1,060 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F.
• Duluth Public School District (urban): math 44% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #132 of 301 in MN (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 99 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 639 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (338 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1924 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $290,903 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1924 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.38%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $305,465
• List price: $299,900
• Delta: -1.82%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4128 Gladstone St	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,386 (+2%)	10mo	$295,000	$213	64
4303 Mcculloch St	0.44mi	3/1.5	1,325 (-2%)	13mo	$351,000	$265	63
4420 Cambridge St	0.40mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,217 (-10%)	1mo	$295,000	$242	59
4225 Gladstone St	0.48mi	3/1.5	1,480 (+10%)	6mo	$350,000	$236	55
4532 Mcculloch St	0.60mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,395 (+3%)	5mo	$294,900	$211	54
4605 Cooke St	0.73mi	3/1.0	1,259 (-7%)	2mo	$321,000	$255	53
4521 Mcculloch St	0.59mi	3/1.0	1,248 (-8%)	9mo	$283,000	$227	52
113 N 42nd Ave Ave E	0.16mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,155 (-15%)	15mo	$195,000	$169	51
4106 Gladstone St	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,521 (+12%)	10mo	$306,250	$201	48
4608 Regent St	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-8%)	13mo	$327,500	$262	46
4025 Gladstone St	0.43mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,155 (-15%)	1mo	$301,000	$261	46
4427 Pitt St	0.69mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,403 (+4%)	11mo	$302,000	$215	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-15,706
• Equity at exit: $44,716

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.34×
• Total profit: $28,642
• Equity at exit: $25,930

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55804

• Active inventory: 99
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,155 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$278 /mo · $3,340/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$663
• Net cashflow: $517

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,501

Max offer price $299,900

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,975
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3780 London Rd Duluth, MN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1312	$3,485	$2.66	13d	1	0.30mi
5090 London Rd Unit 1 Duluth, MN	2.0	2.0	959	$2,100	$2.19	13d	1	1.16mi
2044 Woodland Ave Duluth, MN	4.0	2.0	1812	$2,350	$1.30	21d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,900 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,900 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $299,900 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-05
   days on market $299,900 Active 29 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $299,900 Active 28 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $299,900 Active 27 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $299,900 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $299,900 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-05-30
   days on market $299,900 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-05-06
    listed $299,900 Active 612-char remark
11. 2019-05-24
    soldstatus $159,900
12. 2019-05-19
    soldstatus $157,500 478-char remark

    Show marketing remark (478 chars)

    Check out this beautifully updated home in Lakeside across from East High School. Hardwoods throughout, new fixtures, newer appliances, completely updated and painted. There is a tar driveway easement that is eight feet behind the house at far end of lot. The previous owner parked in the carport under deck , other vehicles fit behind the deck without blocking driveway. There is also licensed parking only permitted for residents on the street. Don't miss out on this Charmer!

13. 2019-02-26
    listed $159,900 478-char remark

    Show marketing remark (478 chars)

    Check out this beautifully updated home in Lakeside across from East High School. Hardwoods throughout, new fixtures, newer appliances, completely updated and painted. There is a tar driveway easement that is eight feet behind the house at far end of lot. The previous owner parked in the carport under deck , other vehicles fit behind the deck without blocking driveway. There is also licensed parking only permitted for residents on the street. Don't miss out on this Charmer!

14. 2018-10-11
    soldstatus $97,500
15. 2018-10-09
    soldstatus $97,500

    Show marketing remark (799 chars)

    Warm and Inviting Colonial in Popular Lakeside Location! The Main Level has an Adorable Breakfast Nook in the Kitchen Overlooking Back Yard and Deck. Be prepared for Family Gatherings in the Formal Dining room. A Lovely Piano Window graces the exterior wall. Large Foyer at the Front Entry between the Dining Room and Living Room. Living Room has Sunlight at all times of the Day. It showcases a Stately Wood Burning Fireplace. Upstairs there are 3, All good sized, Bedrooms and a Full Bath. Many large and deep closets. Maple flooring throughout the second floor. Outside is a large 16 X 24 Deck as well as a Carport. This home Oozes with the Charm of 1924! This well-loved home close to East High School has had the same owner for 40 years. It needs work, but well worth the effort at the price!

16. 2018-08-22
    listed $129,900

    Show marketing remark (799 chars)

    Warm and Inviting Colonial in Popular Lakeside Location! The Main Level has an Adorable Breakfast Nook in the Kitchen Overlooking Back Yard and Deck. Be prepared for Family Gatherings in the Formal Dining room. A Lovely Piano Window graces the exterior wall. Large Foyer at the Front Entry between the Dining Room and Living Room. Living Room has Sunlight at all times of the Day. It showcases a Stately Wood Burning Fireplace. Upstairs there are 3, All good sized, Bedrooms and a Full Bath. Many large and deep closets. Maple flooring throughout the second floor. Outside is a large 16 X 24 Deck as well as a Carport. This home Oozes with the Charm of 1924! This well-loved home close to East High School has had the same owner for 40 years. It needs work, but well worth the effort at the price!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,340 · $278/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,349 · $279/mo
• Expected delta: +$9/yr (+$1/mo · 0.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,862
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,799
• − Property taxes: −$3,340
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,029
• − Management: −$3,029
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable income: $1,441
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$346
• After-tax cash flow: $5,853/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Duluth Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2711040
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $45,692
• Composite: 41.92/100
• National rank: #3360
• State rank: #132 of 301 in MN

Livability — Duluth

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #36
• US rank: #1060

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Duluth, MN
• City population: 71,097
• Population (ZIP): 16,018

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 202,411 people
• By 2030: 203,234 · +0.4%
• By 2040: 202,520 · +0.1%
• By 2050: 200,853 · -0.8%
• By 2075: 200,943 · -0.7%
• By 2100: 192,058 · -5.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 1% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 14% Scottish 4% Romanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: D (+13.7) · D 55.9% · R 42.2% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 13.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.7 2020: D+15.6 2016: D+11.8 2012: D+29.6 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -253.94%
• Current HPI: 199.4064
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+142.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Sold (MLS) $315,000 LSAR
• 2026-05-06 Listed $299,900 LSAR
• 2019-05-24 Sold (Public Records) $159,900 Public Records
• 2019-05-19 Sold (MLS) $157,500 LSAR
• 2019-02-26 Listed $159,900 LSAR
• 2018-10-11 Sold (Public Records) $97,500 Public Records
• 2018-10-09 Sold (MLS) $97,500 LSAR
• 2018-08-22 Listed $129,900 LSAR

Property tax history

+8.2%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,340 · +7.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.