18230 Caprice Ln · Nassau Bay, TX 77058

$289,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,167 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 115 Days on market

Built 1965 9,199 sqft lot $133/sqft · 11% below area Est $324k · 11% under $8/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.4/15.0
• Cash flow +10.9/30.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Appreciation +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Opportunity awaits in Nassau Bay! This single-story 4-bedroom, 2-bath home features a functional layout and solid bones, offering a buyer the perfect opportunity to add personal updates throughout. This home presents excellent potential in a desirable location close to shopping, dining, and easy commuting.

Key facts

• 9,199 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1965

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $289k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-552 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $191k (33.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $261k (9.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $191k (33.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 1.2% in Nassau Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#470 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living B+, health & safety B; Watch: crime D+, amenities D, commute F.
• Clear Creek ISD (suburban): math 48% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #114 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 133 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,611/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($69k/yr) (locally 1147% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.2%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 115 days — a 9% lower offer ($263k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $191,425 (33.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 115 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.87%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $324,484
• List price: $289,000
• Delta: -10.94%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18306 Barbuda Ln	0.10mi	4/2.0	2,080 (-4%)	1mo	$364,900	$175	88
1319 Saxony Ln	0.10mi	4/2.0	2,013 (-7%)	4mo	$285,000	$142	80
18210 Caprice Ln	0.07mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,065 (-5%)	12mo	$398,900	$193	74
18335 Hereford Ln	0.31mi	4/2.5	2,283 (+5%)	2mo	$289,000	$127	72
18230 Hereford Ln	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,083 (-4%)	10mo	$265,000	$127	69
1510 Saxony Ln	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,991 (-8%)	4mo	$319,000	$160	68
18203 Carriage Ln	0.15mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,407 (+11%)	6mo	$220,000	$91	65
18655 Martinique Dr	0.65mi	4/2.5	2,201 (+2%)	5mo	$359,900	$164	61
18731 Egret Oaks Ln	0.38mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,088 (-4%)	10mo	$350,000	$168	56
713 Eagle Ford Ln	0.37mi	4/3.0	2,442 (+13%)	4mo	$485,568	$199	54
1522 Saxony Ln	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,872 (-14%)	9mo	$314,900	$168	53
640 Pertonila Ln	0.67mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,327 (+7%)	1mo	$430,000	$185	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.22% appreciation · 1.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-62,161
• Equity at exit: $66,747

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.09×
• Total profit: $-88,348
• Equity at exit: $67,553

Cash invested: $80,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77058

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 133
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,611 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,516
• Tax from tax record: −$544 /mo · $6,533/yr
• Insurance: −$120
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$8
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$548
• Net cashflow: $-552

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,310

Max offer price $191,425

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-389	-5% $-471	+0% $-552	+5% $-634	+10% $-716
Rent	-10% $-759	-5% $-655	+0% $-552	+5% $-449	+10% $-346
Rate	-1.0pp $-407	-0.5pp $-479	base $-552	+0.5pp $-627	+1.0pp $-703

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,250
• Closing costs: $8,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18107 Point Lookout Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1422	$2,370	$1.67	44d	1	0.43mi
1235 E Nasa Pkwy Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1252	$3,059	$2.44	2d	31	0.47mi
1315 E NASA Pkwy Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1214	$1,924	$1.58	2d	37	0.49mi
18101 Point Lookout Dr Unit 3174 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1422	$2,487	$1.75	3d	1	0.49mi
18101 Point Lookout Dr Unit 18134 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1422	$2,480	$1.74	44d	1	0.49mi
1810 San Sebastian Ln Unit 1521758P Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	2325	$4,669	$2.01	2d	1	0.52mi
1110 El Camino Village Dr Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1143	$1,809	$1.58	2d	76	0.61mi
200 Water St Webster, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1094	$2,264	$2.07	2d	38	0.71mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $8 · $96/yr

Listing history 36 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $289,000 Active 115 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $289,000 Active 114 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $289,000 Active 113 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $289,000 Active 112 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $289,000 Active 110 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $289,000 Active 109 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $289,000 Active 106 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $289,000 Active 105 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $289,000 Active 104 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $289,000 Active 101 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $289,000 Active 100 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $289,000 Active 99 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $289,000 Active 98 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $289,000 Active 97 DOM
15. 2026-02-23
    listed $289,000 Active 307-char remark

    Show marketing remark (307 chars)

    Opportunity awaits in Nassau Bay! This single-story 4-bedroom, 2-bath home features a functional layout and solid bones, offering a buyer the perfect opportunity to add personal updates throughout. This home presents excellent potential in a desirable location close to shopping, dining, and easy commuting.

16. 2026-02-22
    historical
17. 2025-10-27
    listed $295,000 Active
18. 2025-10-27
    historical
19. 2025-08-19
    listed $295,000 Active
20. 2025-08-19
    historical
21. 2025-06-03
    listed $295,000 Active
22. 2025-06-03
    historical
23. 2025-02-22
    listed $315,000 Active
24. 2025-02-22
    historical
25. 2025-02-17
    listed $310,000 Active
26. 2023-11-03
    historical $2,295
27. 2023-10-25
    price $2,295
28. 2023-10-20
    price $2,325
29. 2023-09-30
    price $2,395
30. 2023-09-23
    price $2,425
31. 2023-08-30
    price $2,495
32. 2023-08-04
    listed $2,575
33. 2003-07-08
    soldstatus
34. 2003-04-30
    historical
35. 2003-01-21
    listed $159,900
36. 1988-01-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,533 · $544/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,533 · $544/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,330
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,188
• − Property taxes: −$6,533
• − Insurance: −$6,564
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,506
• − Management: −$2,506
• − HOA: −$96
• − Depreciation: −$8,407
• Taxable loss: −$11,471
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,753
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,875/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clear Creek ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814280
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $80,240
• Composite: 46.49/100
• National rank: #2431
• State rank: #114 of 826 in TX

Livability — Nassau Bay

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #470
• US rank: #9466

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime D+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Nassau Bay, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 17,850
• Household income: $68,722
• Rent vs Own: 68.8% rent · 31.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1147.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 15% Asian 10% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Lithuanian 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 5% Vietnamese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.22%
• Current HPI: 225.0251
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.92%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+80.7% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-23 Listed $289,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-22 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-10-27 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-10-27 Listed $295,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-19 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-08-19 Listed $295,000 HARMLS
• 2025-06-03 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-06-03 Listed $295,000 HARMLS
• 2025-02-22 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-02-22 Listed $315,000 HARMLS
• 2025-02-17 Listed $310,000 HARMLS
• 2023-11-03 Rental Removed $2,295 HARMLS
• 2023-10-25 Price Changed $2,295 HARMLS
• 2023-10-20 Price Changed $2,325 HARMLS
• 2023-09-30 Price Changed $2,395 HARMLS
• 2023-09-23 Price Changed $2,425 HARMLS
• 2023-08-30 Price Changed $2,495 HARMLS
• 2023-08-04 Listed for Rent $2,575 HARMLS
• 2003-07-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-04-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2003-01-21 Listed $159,900 HARMLS
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,533 · +0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.