246 Margarita Dr · Mustang Ridge, TX 78616

$272,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,046 sqft · Manufactured · 295 Days on market

Built 2023 0.33 ac lot Est $226k · 20% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

GREAT PROPERTY FOR FIRST TIME HOMEBUYERS OR INVESTORS! Move into this beautiful 4 bedroom, 2 bath mobile home with an open concept floor plan or build your dream home! This lovely home offers a covered porch & carport, a kitchen with new appliances, a spacious master bedroom with an ensuite bathroom and three additional bedrooms perfect for guest bedrooms or office space use. Sitting on a little over 1/3 of an acre, this property backs up to a vacant lot. Conveniently located 15 mins to Circuit of The Americas, 20 mins to airport and within a 30 min drive of Austin or Bastrop. This home is a quiet retreat with the ability to escape the hustle and bustle of the city but still be close

Key facts

• 0.33 acre lot
• 4 parking spots
• Built 2023

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $272k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-285 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $222k (18.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (33.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $180k (33.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#854 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Bastrop ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #670 of 826 in TX (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Cedar Creek El (math 12% / reading 13%, grade F, #4,167 of 4,322 statewide, top 97%, 1,077 students, 92% FRL); Cedar Creek Middle (math 21% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,279 of 1,662 statewide, top 78%, 1,040 students, 90% FRL); Cedar Creek H S (math 44% / reading 39%, grade F, #767 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 2,002 students, 75% FRL) — zoned schools average 86% FRL vs 62% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 202 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,841 units permitted in Bastrop County in 2024 (150 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $27k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Bastrop County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$47k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 295 days — a 12% lower offer ($239k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $180,000 (33.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 295 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.49%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 12.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $225,936
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
121 Sunflower Rd	0.28mi	3/2.0 (-1)	924 (-12%)	2mo	$199,900	$216	61
138 La Fortuna Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,144 (+9%)	10mo	$252,000	$220	43
120 Violeta Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,152 (+10%)	20mo	$238,900	$207	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.71×
• Total profit: $129,891
• Equity at exit: $245,039

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.21×
• Total profit: $396,638
• Equity at exit: $528,436

Cash invested: $76,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78616

• Home prices YoY: 4.8%
• Active inventory: 202
• Price-to-rent: 12.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,800 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,426
• Tax from tax record: −$168 /mo · $2,010/yr
• Insurance: −$113
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $-285

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,161

Max offer price $221,607

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-131	-5% $-208	+0% $-285	+5% $-362	+10% $-439
Rent	-10% $-427	-5% $-356	+0% $-285	+5% $-214	+10% $-143
Rate	-1.0pp $-148	-0.5pp $-216	base $-285	+0.5pp $-356	+1.0pp $-427

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,000
• Closing costs: $8,160
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
116 Mazatlan Dr Del Valle, TX	4.0	2.0	1200	$1,800	$1.50	6d	1	1.24mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2024-06-21
   status Pending
2. 2023-08-31
   listed $272,000 Active
3. 2023-05-05
   price
4. 2023-01-27
   listed Active
5. 2022-05-12
   listed Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,010 · $168/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,978 · $415/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,967/yr (+$247/mo · 147.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,236
• − Property taxes: −$2,010
• − Insurance: −$1,360
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,728
• − Management: −$1,728
• − Depreciation: −$7,913
• Taxable loss: −$8,375
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,010
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,413/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bastrop ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809570
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $56,010
• Composite: 23.87/100
• National rank: #7799
• State rank: #670 of 826 in TX

Livability — Mustang Ridge

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #854
• US rank: #15380

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,008

Population outlook (Bastrop County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 94,260 people
• By 2030: 101,355 · +7.5%
• By 2040: 115,578 · +22.6%
• By 2050: 129,464 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 168,068 · +78.3%
• By 2100: 194,857 · +106.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 77% Two or more races 48% White 17% Native American 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 72%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1% Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada
• Languages at home: 48% English-only · Spanish 51% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bastrop

• 2024 margin: R (+18.4) · D 40.2% · R 58.6% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: -8.2pp · 2024: -18.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.4 2020: R+13.8 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+17.0 2008: R+8.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 14.00%
• Current HPI: 308.45
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

5 events — show timeline

• 2024-06-21 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2023-08-31 Listed $272,000 Unlock MLS
• 2023-05-05 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2023-01-27 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 2022-05-12 Listed — Unlock MLS

Property tax history

+132.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,010 · +8.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.