504 Barbary Coast Ln Ln · Sonterra, TX 76537

$239,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,390 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 23 Days on market

Built 2021 Good condition 4,613 sqft lot $173/sqft · 14% below area Est $280k · 14% under $20/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.1/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

M O T I V A T E D S E L L E R – R e c e n t l y R e d u c e d ! Welcome to 504 Barbary Coast Ln — a beautifully updated 3-bedroom, 2-bath home with a versatile bonus room that can easily serve as a 4th bedroom, office, or playroom. Located in the quiet and desirable Coolwater community, this home offers comfort, flexibility, and exceptional value. Step inside to a bright, open living space featuring updated lighting throughout and a layout perfect for both relaxing and entertaining. The kitchen opens seamlessly to the living area and includes a convenient 4-seat bar, ideal for casual dining or hosting guests. The spacious primary suite features an oversized walk-in shower,

Key facts

• Community pool
• Bonus room
• Updated lighting

Tags

• UPDATED LIGHTING
• OPEN KITCHEN
• COMMUNITY POOL
• PICNIC AREAS
• BONUS ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $240k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-340 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $180k (25.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $192k (19.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $180k (25.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Jarrell ISD (rural): math 19% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #713 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 773 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 7,543 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (1,425 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Williamson County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($236k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $179,844 (25.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.59%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.07%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $280,433
• List price: $239,900
• Delta: -14.45%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
129 Starpacker Ln	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,418 (+2%)	1mo	$218,999	$154	82
125 Starpacker Ln	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,409 (+1%)	3mo	$227,990	$162	82
109 Starpacker Ln	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,409 (+1%)	4mo	$239,990	$170	82
149 Starpacker Ln	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,418 (+2%)	0mo	$204,999	$145	81
141 Starpacker Ln	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,418 (+2%)	1mo	$204,999	$145	81
113 Starpacker Ln	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,418 (+2%)	3mo	$226,990	$160	81
360 Brannigan Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,409 (+1%)	1mo	$216,999	$154	80
117 Morrison Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,305 (-6%)	4mo	$232,900	$178	80
364 Brannigan Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,418 (+2%)	3mo	$218,990	$154	78
117 Starpacker Ln	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,273 (-8%)	1mo	$201,999	$159	72
505 Yellow Ribbon Trl	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,252 (-10%)	2mo	$279,900	$224	70
129 Morrison Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,580 (+14%)	2mo	$252,900	$160	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.02×
• Total profit: $-66,008
• Equity at exit: $35,770

10-year hold

• IRR: -56.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.59×
• Total profit: $-106,511
• Equity at exit: $20,742

Cash invested: $67,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76537

• Home prices YoY: -14.4%
• Rents YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 773
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,922 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,258
• Tax from tax record: −$480 /mo · $5,766/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$20
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$404
• Net cashflow: $-340

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,353

Max offer price $179,844

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-204	-5% $-272	+0% $-340	+5% $-408	+10% $-476
Rent	-10% $-492	-5% $-416	+0% $-340	+5% $-264	+10% $-188
Rate	-1.0pp $-219	-0.5pp $-279	base $-340	+0.5pp $-402	+1.0pp $-465

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,975
• Closing costs: $7,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 33 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
105 McLintock Rd Jarrell, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1773	$2,055	$1.16	2d	1	0.01mi
313 McLintock Rd Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1855	$2,000	$1.08	3d	1	0.07mi
121 Old Stagecoach Rd Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1531	$1,800	$1.18	44d	1	0.10mi
221 Barbary Coast Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,750	$1.21	2d	1	0.11mi
104 Fighting Seabees Run Unit NA Jarrell, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$1,500	$1.67	3d	1	0.12mi
201 Fighting Seabees Run Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,900	$1.14	8d	1	0.12mi
120 Morrison Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1580	$2,210	$1.40	17d	1	0.19mi
360 Brannigan Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1409	$1,700	$1.21	2d	1	0.35mi
252 Wild Wind Trl Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1243	$1,650	$1.33	18d	1	0.60mi
107 Wild Wind Cv Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1214	$1,700	$1.40	44d	1	0.62mi
154 Hammond Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,900	$1.27	4d	1	0.71mi
112 Ragnar Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1251	$1,495	$1.20	17d	1	0.76mi
112 Ragnar Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1251	$1,495	$1.20	20d	1	0.76mi
104 Hellfighters Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1619	$2,000	$1.24	44d	1	0.82mi
449 Stone Water Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1674	$1,900	$1.14	44d	1	0.87mi
621 Xanadu Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1586	$1,750	$1.10	5d	1	1.08mi
241 Alcatraz Loop Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,895	$1.47	18d	1	1.17mi
504 Wyatt Way Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1612	$1,895	$1.18	18d	1	1.19mi
508 Wyatt Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,800	$1.20	44d	1	1.19mi
600 Shimek St Unit 19A Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1357	$1,650	$1.22	18d	1	1.22mi
149 Vulcan Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,799	$1.24	24d	1	1.23mi
117 Galaxy Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1276	$1,650	$1.29	21d	1	1.25mi
873 Circle Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,650	$1.14	15d	1	1.29mi
137 Kellys Heroes Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1214	$1,695	$1.40	44d	1	1.29mi
1100 Jackson Ln Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.5	1839	$1,745	$0.95	5d	1	1.30mi
125 Kellys Heroes Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1641	$1,650	$1.01	44d	1	1.30mi
324 Circle Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1661	$1,650	$0.99	11d	1	1.31mi
244 Circle Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1242	$1,545	$1.24	21d	1	1.36mi
637 The Ugly Way Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1688	$1,795	$1.06	44d	1	1.44mi
104 Perfect World Loop Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1751	$1,885	$1.08	3d	1	1.47mi
104 Perfect World Loop Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1751	$1,885	$1.08	5d	1	1.47mi
340 The Bad Way Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1616	$1,695	$1.05	44d	1	1.48mi
340 The Bad Way Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1616	$1,695	$1.05	24d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $20 · $240/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $239,900 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $239,900 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $239,900 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $239,900 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $239,900 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $239,900 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $239,900 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $239,900 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $239,900 Active 9 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $239,900 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    pricedays on market $239,900 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $250,000 Active 4 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,766 · $480/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,766 · $480/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,067
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,438
• − Property taxes: −$5,766
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,845
• − Management: −$1,845
• − HOA: −$240
• − Depreciation: −$6,979
• Taxable loss: −$8,247
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,979
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,100/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This recently updated single-family home in Sonterra, TX, offers a good condition with a modern kitchen and fresh paint. It has potential for further value increases through exterior improvements and smart home upgrades.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Upgrading the flooring in the bathrooms — Improves aesthetics and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Adding smart home features — Enhances convenience and can increase both resale and rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Upgrading the flooring in the bathrooms — Improves aesthetics and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Enhances convenience and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jarrell ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824600
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $57,132
• Composite: 21.47/100
• National rank: #8335
• State rank: #713 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sonterra

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Williamson County · 680,029 people
• City population: 12,526
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,272
• Household income: $98,199
• Rent vs Own: 20.5% rent · 79.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 225.0

Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 699,027 people
• By 2030: 795,537 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 990,683 · +41.7%
• By 2050: 1,184,292 · +69.4%
• By 2075: 1,623,825 · +132.3%
• By 2100: 1,924,153 · +175.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 14% Black 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 26% Chinese 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 50.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.6pp toward D · 2008: -13.0pp · 2024: -2.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.5 2020: D+1.4 2016: R+9.9 2012: R+21.5 2008: R+13.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.03%
• Current HPI: 184.8935
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.73%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property tax history

+8.1%/yr

Latest (2026): $5,766 · -18.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.