543 Jefferson Ln NW · Elk River, MN 55330

$330,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,768 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1987 5,227 sqft lot $187/sqft · 18% below area Est $401k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.8/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming and updated rambler in great location close to schools and services. Beautifully, painted deck overlooks newly landscaped backyard with firepit. Well cared for and loved home. Neighborhood takes pride in their homes. Four season porch allows for a relaxing setting with lots of sunlight.

Key facts

• 5,227 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1987

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1-car)
• Utilities: City water (connected); City sewer (connected); Natural gas
• Home design: Residential property; One level with lower (basement) finished area; Entry faces city street
• Construction: Foundation: Other; Foundation area approximately 816
• Exterior features: Wood exterior; Wood fencing; Deck; Sun room / four-season porch; City street frontage; Lot dimensions approximately 64 x 89 x 40 x 93 (0.12 acres)

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Microwave; Disposal
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms — two on the main level (12x13 and 10x10), one on the lower level (12x11)
• Bathrooms: Main floor full bathroom; Basement 3/4 bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Finished full basement; Finished lower-level family room (14x27); Deck; Sun room / four-season porch (16x16); Informal dining area / kitchen-dining combo; Electronic air filter
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer; Laundry located in basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $330k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-271 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $282k (14.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $233k (29.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $233k (29.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.3% in Elk River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#265 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Independent School District 728 (suburban): math 56% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #37 of 301 in MN (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Lincoln Elementary (math 33% / reading 51%, grade F, #579 of 857 statewide, top 69%, 557 students, 46% FRL); Vandenberge Middle School (math 36% / reading 47%, grade F, #138 of 258 statewide, top 55%, 512 students, 27% FRL); Elk River Senior High (math 60% / reading 57%, grade C, #56 of 471 statewide, top 12%, 1,637 students, 22% FRL) — zoned schools average 32% FRL vs 14% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 457 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 334 units permitted in Sherburne County in 2024 (58 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 31y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $232,610 (29.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.31%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.51%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $400,928
• List price: $330,000
• Delta: -17.69%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-70,780
• Equity at exit: $49,204

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-84,114
• Equity at exit: $28,532

Cash invested: $92,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55330

• Active inventory: 457
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,326 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,731
• Tax from tax record: −$240 /mo · $2,882/yr
• Insurance: −$138
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$488
• Net cashflow: $-271

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,669

Max offer price $282,197

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-84	-5% $-177	+0% $-271	+5% $-364	+10% $-457
Rent	-10% $-454	-5% $-362	+0% $-271	+5% $-179	+10% $-87
Rate	-1.0pp $-104	-0.5pp $-187	base $-271	+0.5pp $-356	+1.0pp $-443

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,500
• Closing costs: $9,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending 736-char remark
2. 2026-05-06
   historical Contingent - Inspection 736-char remark
3. 2026-05-01
   listed $330,000 Active 736-char remark
4. 2026-04-27
   historical $330,000 736-char remark
5. 2024-05-02
   soldstatus $320,000
6. 2024-04-29
   soldstatus $320,000 Sold 296-char remark

   Show marketing remark (296 chars)

   Charming and updated rambler in great location close to schools and services. Beautifully, painted deck overlooks newly landscaped backyard with firepit. Well cared for and loved home. Neighborhood takes pride in their homes. Four season porch allows for a relaxing setting with lots of sunlight.

7. 2024-02-26
   status Pending 296-char remark

   Show marketing remark (296 chars)

   Charming and updated rambler in great location close to schools and services. Beautifully, painted deck overlooks newly landscaped backyard with firepit. Well cared for and loved home. Neighborhood takes pride in their homes. Four season porch allows for a relaxing setting with lots of sunlight.

8. 2024-02-15
   historical Contingent - Inspection 296-char remark

   Show marketing remark (296 chars)

   Charming and updated rambler in great location close to schools and services. Beautifully, painted deck overlooks newly landscaped backyard with firepit. Well cared for and loved home. Neighborhood takes pride in their homes. Four season porch allows for a relaxing setting with lots of sunlight.

9. 2024-02-10
   listed $320,000 Active 296-char remark

   Show marketing remark (296 chars)

   Charming and updated rambler in great location close to schools and services. Beautifully, painted deck overlooks newly landscaped backyard with firepit. Well cared for and loved home. Neighborhood takes pride in their homes. Four season porch allows for a relaxing setting with lots of sunlight.

10. 2024-01-31
    historical $320,000 296-char remark

    Show marketing remark (296 chars)

    Charming and updated rambler in great location close to schools and services. Beautifully, painted deck overlooks newly landscaped backyard with firepit. Well cared for and loved home. Neighborhood takes pride in their homes. Four season porch allows for a relaxing setting with lots of sunlight.

11. 2022-12-09
    soldstatus $273,000
12. 2019-10-25
    soldstatus $215,000
13. 2019-10-21
    soldstatus $215,000 Sold

    Show marketing remark (345 chars)

    Like new construction!!! Completely updated rambler in great location close to schools & services! Beautiful deck overlooks the lovely fenced in backyard. These sellers have made this home perfect for your immediate move in. Remodeled kitchen, bath, new carpet and paint. Great safe neighborhood with neighbors who have pride in their homes!

14. 2019-09-16
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (345 chars)

    Like new construction!!! Completely updated rambler in great location close to schools & services! Beautiful deck overlooks the lovely fenced in backyard. These sellers have made this home perfect for your immediate move in. Remodeled kitchen, bath, new carpet and paint. Great safe neighborhood with neighbors who have pride in their homes!

15. 2019-09-12
    listed $210,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (345 chars)

    Like new construction!!! Completely updated rambler in great location close to schools & services! Beautiful deck overlooks the lovely fenced in backyard. These sellers have made this home perfect for your immediate move in. Remodeled kitchen, bath, new carpet and paint. Great safe neighborhood with neighbors who have pride in their homes!

16. 2011-09-09
    historical
17. 2011-09-06
    soldstatus $92,900
18. 2011-07-06
    listed $89,900
19. 2004-12-28
    soldstatus $165,000
20. 2004-09-30
    soldstatus $158,900
21. 2004-07-06
    historical
22. 2004-06-30
    listed $158,900
23. 1996-02-13
    soldstatus $73,700
24. 1996-01-31
    soldstatus $73,700
25. 1995-11-01
    historical
26. 1995-10-16
    listed $73,700

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,882 · $240/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,289 · $274/mo
• Expected delta: +$407/yr (+$34/mo · 14.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,913
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,485
• − Property taxes: −$2,882
• − Insurance: −$1,650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,233
• − Management: −$2,233
• − Depreciation: −$9,600
• Taxable loss: −$9,170
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,201
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,046/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Independent School District 728
• NCES district ID: 2711370
• Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $82,336
• Composite: 52.5/100
• National rank: #1567
• State rank: #37 of 301 in MN

Livability — Elk River

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #265
• US rank: #5795

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elk River, MN
• County: Sherburne County · 120,363 people
• City population: 45,721
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 45,721
• Household income: $115,761
• Rent vs Own: 15.8% rent · 84.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 285.0

Population outlook (Sherburne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 97,402 people
• By 2030: 99,341 · +2.0%
• By 2040: 101,188 · +3.9%
• By 2050: 99,214 · +1.9%
• By 2075: 88,700 · -8.9%
• By 2100: 72,241 · -25.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 6% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 13% Romanian 6% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sherburne

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+34.9) · D 31.7% · R 66.6% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.7pp toward R · 2008: -18.2pp · 2024: -34.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+34.9 2020: R+32.6 2016: R+37.0 2012: R+22.1 2008: R+18.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -173.46%
• Current HPI: 241.3028
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+347.8% since first listed

26 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-06 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-01 Listed $330,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-27 Coming Soon $330,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-02 Sold (Public Records) $320,000 Public Records
• 2024-04-29 Sold (MLS) $320,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-02-26 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-02-15 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-02-10 Listed $320,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-31 Coming Soon $320,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-12-09 Sold (Public Records) $273,000 Public Records
• 2019-10-25 Sold (Public Records) $215,000 Public Records
• 2019-10-21 Sold (MLS) $215,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-09-16 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-09-12 Listed $210,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-09-09 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-09-06 Sold (MLS) $92,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-07-06 Listed $89,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-12-28 Sold (Public Records) $165,000 Public Records
• 2004-09-30 Sold (MLS) $158,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-07-06 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-06-30 Listed $158,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1996-02-13 Sold (Public Records) $73,700 Public Records
• 1996-01-31 Sold (MLS) $73,700 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1995-11-01 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1995-10-16 Listed $73,700 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,882 · -0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.