526 E 139th St · New York, NY 10454

$639,999

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,480 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 39 Days on market

Built 1998 2,050 sqft lot Est $675k · 5% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.5/30.0
• ARV discount +9.8/15.0
• Appreciation +7.3/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Here is it, your chance to grab a slice of one of the faster growing neighborhoods in the Bronx, Mott Haven! Built in 1998, this relatively New Property is waiting for it's next occupants to put their own cosmetic touches to the property. Well maintained for over 25 years; nothing to do but move right in. Minutes away from shops, highways, schools & public transportation (6 train), enjoy the tranquility of your own Home/space while reaping the benefits of the city's convenience.

Key facts

• 2,050 sq ft lot
• Built 1998
• Listed 39 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $640k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $144 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $534k (16.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $534k (16.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Zoned schools: Elm Tree Elementary School (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,444 of 2,108 statewide, top 71%, 806 students, 94% FRL); Jhs 383 Philippa Schuyler (math 32% / reading 67%, grade C, #280 of 729 statewide, top 40%, 822 students, 85% FRL); Midwood High School (math 94% / reading 96%, grade A+, #83 of 1,100 statewide, top 8%, 4,062 students, 73% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 19 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 6,929 units permitted in Bronx County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,343/mo this rent would consume 266% of the median local household income ($24k/yr) (locally 5002% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $34k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (4.7% local appreciation)).
• Bronx County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (4.7% appreciation + 0.6% rent growth), your $179k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$55k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($621k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $106k; list at $640k implies a 507% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $534,270 (16.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.97%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $674,880
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
522 E 139th St	0.01mi	3/1.5	1,480 (0%)	4mo	$675,000	$456	97
685 E 132nd St	0.43mi	3/2.5	1,400 (-5%)	23mo	$299,000	$214	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.67% appreciation · 0.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.74×
• Total profit: $131,872
• Equity at exit: $349,743

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.09×
• Total profit: $374,460
• Equity at exit: $593,176

Cash invested: $179,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City New York: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+34

Rent Stabilization Code; HSTPA; 6+ months in housing court.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10454

• Home prices YoY: 2.0%
• Rents YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 19
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,343 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,356
• Tax from tax record: −$453 /mo · $5,440/yr
• Insurance: −$267
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,122
• Net cashflow: $144

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,160

Max offer price $639,999

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $507	-5% $326	+0% $144	+5% $-37	+10% $-218
Rent	-10% $-278	-5% $-67	+0% $144	+5% $356	+10% $567
Rate	-1.0pp $467	-0.5pp $307	base $144	+0.5pp $-21	+1.0pp $-190

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $160,000
• Closing costs: $19,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5 Lincoln Ave Bronx, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1011	$7,419	$7.33	0d	181	0.66mi
2413 3rd Ave Bronx, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	857	$5,091	$5.94	1d	21	0.71mi
120 E 116th St Unit 3R New York, NY	4.0	2.0	1100	$4,995	$4.54	9d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-07
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-12
   price $639,999
3. 2026-02-28
   listed $659,999 Active
4. 2026-02-27
   historical $659,999
5. 1999-09-15
   soldstatus $105,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,440 · $453/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,128 · $677/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,688/yr (+$224/mo · 49.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 56% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $64,112
• − Mortgage interest: −$35,850
• − Property taxes: −$5,440
• − Insurance: −$3,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,129
• − Management: −$5,129
• − Depreciation: −$18,618
• Taxable loss: −$9,254
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,221
• After-tax cash flow: $3,955/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — New York

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #4188

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A- Housing C+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New York, NY
• County: Bronx County · 1,197,324 people
• City population: 7,731,280
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 39,570
• Household income: $24,086
• Rent vs Own: 93.2% rent · 6.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 5002.0

Population outlook (Bronx County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,353 people
• By 2030: 1,681,852 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,824,421 · +13.5%
• By 2050: 1,945,470 · +21.0%
• By 2075: 2,187,887 · +36.1%
• By 2100: 2,244,136 · +39.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 70% Black 23% Two or more races 14% White 3% Native American 3% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13% Puerto Rican 29% Dominican 17%
• Foreign-born: 29% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 36% English-only · Spanish 58% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Bronx

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+45.4) · D 72.7% · R 27.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.3pp toward R · 2008: 77.8pp · 2024: 45.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+45.4 2020: D+67.6 2016: D+79.1 2012: D+82.9 2008: D+77.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.67%
• Current HPI: 238.974
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.61%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+506.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $639,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-28 Listed $659,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-27 Coming Soon $659,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1999-09-15 Sold (Public Records) $105,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+22.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,440 · +5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.