4019 Chandler Ln · Bismarck, ND 58503

$175,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured · 48 Days on market

Built 2006 $549/mo HOA · 29% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Are you looking for an affordable home with 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and fenced backyard. .. .. this is it. This nice home has a very open floor plan with the master bedroom being separated from the other bedrooms with the main living area. The master bedroom has direct access to the main full bathroom that has a garden tub and shower with easy access to the laundry area. The kitchen has ample cabinets with a breakfast bar and the natural gas range has a griddle on it. The detached heated garage has plenty of room for your vehicles along with a workbench, shelving, and storage bins. You will enjoy the deck over looking the backyard that has a vinyl fence and storage shed. Along the garage is a parking pad for your extra vehicles and toys. To see this and more. .. .. .come look.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Natural gas range
• Fenced backyard

Tags

• FENCED BACKYARD
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• DIRECT ACCESS TO BATHROOM
• GARDEN TUB
• NATURAL GAS RANGE
• DETACHED HEATED GARAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with a $549 monthly fee; HOA fee includes sewer and trash

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage; Heated garage; Garage door opener; Garage faces front; Parking pad; Off-street and additional concrete parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential mobile home (double wide); One level; Shingle roof; Vinyl siding
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Private yard; Private entrance; Deck; Fenced backyard with vinyl fencing; Asphalt road frontage on a public maintained city street

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas cooktop; Gas range; Microwave
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring; Carpet flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 three-quarter bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Gas cooktop; Gas range; Microwave; Vinyl and carpet flooring; No basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-119 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $154k (12.0% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $154k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.1% in Bismarck — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#5 in ND, #2,213 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime C-, amenities D+, commute F.
• Bismarck 1 (urban): math 41% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #25 of 53 in ND (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Robert Place Miller Elementary School (math 42% / reading 37%, grade F, #137 of 236 statewide, top 63%, 479 students, 36% FRL); Simle Middle School (math 34% / reading 39%, grade F, #22 of 35 statewide, top 62%, 1,040 students, 20% FRL); South Central Alternative High School (94 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 52% FRL vs 19% district-wide (33 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+11.8%/yr); 486 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 259 units permitted in Burleigh County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Burleigh County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($170k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 29% of rent.

Recommended offer $154,029 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.48%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.91%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $94,080
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1718 Chandler Ln	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,232 (-8%)	2mo	$84,900	$69	77
4012 North Valley Loop	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,232 (-8%)	13mo	$99,900	$81	73
4005 19th St N #514	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-10%)	18mo	$85,000	$70	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-25,781
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $13,823
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Dakota: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 58503

• Home prices YoY: -25.6%
• Rents YoY: 11.8%
• Active inventory: 486
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,868 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$55 /mo · $658/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$549
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$392
• Net cashflow: $-119

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,018

Max offer price $154,029

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-20	-5% $-69	+0% $-119	+5% $-168	+10% $-218
Rent	-10% $-266	-5% $-192	+0% $-119	+5% $-45	+10% $29
Rate	-1.0pp $-31	-0.5pp $-74	base $-119	+0.5pp $-164	+1.0pp $-210

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4309 N 19th St Bismarck, ND	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,955	$1.78	23d	1	0.26mi
1600 Mapleton Ave Unit 104 Bismarck, ND	3.0	2.0	1456	$1,600	$1.10	23d	1	0.68mi
3009 43rd Ave NE Bismarck, ND	3.0	1.0–2.0	1051	$2,024	$1.93	23d	22	0.98mi
4126A Normandy St Bismarck, ND	2.0	1.5	1468	$1,750	$1.19	23d	1	0.98mi
3103 E Calgary Ave Bismarck, ND	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1079	$1,860	$1.72	23d	6	1.05mi
444 E Brandon Dr Bismarck, ND	2.0–3.0	2.0	900	$1,655	$1.84	23d	1	1.14mi
4201 Montreal St Bismarck, ND	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1092	$1,886	$1.73	23d	15	1.23mi
1834 E Capitol Ave Bismarck, ND	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1116	$1,770	$1.59	23d	13	1.35mi
1820 E Capitol Ave Bismarck, ND	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1048	$1,545	$1.47	23d	12	1.37mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $549 · $6,588/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $175,000 Active 48 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $175,000 Active 46 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,000 Active 45 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Active 44 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,000 Active 43 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   price $175,000 Active 42 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $180,000 Active 42 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $180,000 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-13
   days on market $180,000 Active 39 DOM
10. 2026-06-10
    days on market $180,000 Active 37 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    days on market $180,000 Active 36 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $180,000 Active 35 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $180,000 Active 34 DOM
14. 2026-06-05
    days on market $180,000 Active 31 DOM
15. 2026-06-03
    days on market $180,000 Active 30 DOM
16. 2026-06-02
    days on market $180,000 Active 29 DOM
17. 2026-06-01
    days on market $180,000 Active 28 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $180,000 Active 27 DOM
19. 2026-05-30
    days on market $180,000 Active 26 DOM
20. 2026-05-04
    listed $180,000 Active
21. 2018-06-29
    soldstatus 788-char remark

    Show marketing remark (788 chars)

    Are you looking for an affordable home with 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and fenced backyard. .. .. this is it. This nice home has a very open floor plan with the master bedroom being separated from the other bedrooms with the main living area. The master bedroom has direct access to the main full bathroom that has a garden tub and shower with easy access to the laundry area. The kitchen has ample cabinets with a breakfast bar and the natural gas range has a griddle on it. The detached heated garage has plenty of room for your vehicles along with a workbench, shelving, and storage bins. You will enjoy the deck over looking the backyard that has a vinyl fence and storage shed. Along the garage is a parking pad for your extra vehicles and toys. To see this and more. .. .. .come look.

22. 2017-09-28
    listed $94,900 788-char remark

    Show marketing remark (788 chars)

    Are you looking for an affordable home with 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and fenced backyard. .. .. this is it. This nice home has a very open floor plan with the master bedroom being separated from the other bedrooms with the main living area. The master bedroom has direct access to the main full bathroom that has a garden tub and shower with easy access to the laundry area. The kitchen has ample cabinets with a breakfast bar and the natural gas range has a griddle on it. The detached heated garage has plenty of room for your vehicles along with a workbench, shelving, and storage bins. You will enjoy the deck over looking the backyard that has a vinyl fence and storage shed. Along the garage is a parking pad for your extra vehicles and toys. To see this and more. .. .. .come look.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast ND · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $658 · $55/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,715 · $143/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,057/yr (+$88/mo · 160.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,417
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$658
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,793
• − Management: −$1,793
• − HOA: −$6,588
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$4,185
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,004
• After-tax cash flow: $-420/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bismarck 1
• NCES district ID: 3800014
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $60,649
• Composite: 36.76/100
• National rank: #4577
• State rank: #25 of 53 in ND

Livability — Bismarck

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #5
• US rank: #2213

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A Crime C- Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bismarck, ND
• County: Burleigh County · 97,300 people
• City population: 97,300
• Metro: Bismarck, ND
• Population (ZIP): 37,683
• Household income: $102,333
• Rent vs Own: 25.7% rent · 74.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 814.0

Population outlook (Burleigh County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 119,359 people
• By 2030: 133,047 · +11.5%
• By 2040: 161,545 · +35.3%
• By 2050: 191,960 · +60.8%
• By 2075: 274,569 · +130.0%
• By 2100: 350,910 · +194.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 17% Scotch-Irish 4% Scottish 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2% Spanish 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Burleigh

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.2) · D 27.5% · R 70.7% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.7pp toward R · 2008: -23.6pp · 2024: -43.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.2 2020: R+40.2 2016: R+46.1 2012: R+32.1 2008: R+23.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -76.96%
• Current HPI: 223.9683
• Rent YoY: ▲ 11.79%
• Metro: Bismarck, ND
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.09%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in ND)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Utilities / Construction	1	$6B

Price history

+89.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Listed $180,000 GNMLS
• 2018-06-29 Sold (MLS) — GNMLS
• 2017-09-28 Listed $94,900 GNMLS