Copperleaf Plan · Dayton, MN 55327

$495,990

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,460 sqft · SingleFamily · 79 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.0/30.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This new two-story home is designed for improved space and flexibility. The first floor is host to an open layout that seamlessly flows from the Great Room to the dining area and kitchen, while a dedicated flex is ready to be used as a home office, playroom or formal sitting area. The second floor delivers abundant living space with a tranquil owner's suite featuring luxurious bath and walk-in closet, three additional bedrooms and a spacious bonus room perfect for media nights, game play and much more.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 79 days

🏗️ New construction. The $495,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $595,976.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $496k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $432k (12.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $378k (23.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $378k (23.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 2.5% in Dayton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#337 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Anoka-Hennepin Public School District (suburban): math 49% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #71 of 301 in MN (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 106 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 4,651 units permitted in Hennepin County in 2024 (2,443 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hennepin County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($466k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $378,000 (23.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.14%
• DSCR: 0.64
• GRM: 13.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $595,976
• List price: $495,990
• Delta: -16.78%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-168,643
• Equity at exit: $88,862

10-year hold

• IRR: -32.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.44×
• Total profit: $-239,494
• Equity at exit: $51,529

Cash invested: $166,873 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55327

• Home prices YoY: -33.6%
• Active inventory: 106
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,780 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,125
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$745 /mo · $8,940/yr
• Insurance: −$248
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$794
• Net cashflow: $-1,132

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,213

Max offer price $432,108

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $148,994
• Closing costs: $17,879
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10339 Orchid Ln N Maple Grove, MN	2.0–4.0	2.5	1591	$3,780	$2.38	1d	17	0.79mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $495,990 Active 79 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $495,990 Active 78 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $495,990 Active 77 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $495,990 Active 76 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $495,990 Active 74 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $495,990 Active 73 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $495,990 Active 70 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   pricedays on market $495,990 Active 69 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $493,990 Active 68 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    pricedays on market $493,990 Active 65 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $488,990 Active 64 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $488,990 Active 63 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $488,990 Active 62 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $488,990 Active 61 DOM
15. 2026-05-06
    price $488,990 507-char remark

    Show marketing remark (507 chars)

    This new two-story home is designed for improved space and flexibility. The first floor is host to an open layout that seamlessly flows from the Great Room to the dining area and kitchen, while a dedicated flex is ready to be used as a home office, playroom or formal sitting area. The second floor delivers abundant living space with a tranquil owner's suite featuring luxurious bath and walk-in closet, three additional bedrooms and a spacious bonus room perfect for media nights, game play and much more.

16. 2026-05-06
    price $486,990 507-char remark

    Show marketing remark (507 chars)

    This new two-story home is designed for improved space and flexibility. The first floor is host to an open layout that seamlessly flows from the Great Room to the dining area and kitchen, while a dedicated flex is ready to be used as a home office, playroom or formal sitting area. The second floor delivers abundant living space with a tranquil owner's suite featuring luxurious bath and walk-in closet, three additional bedrooms and a spacious bonus room perfect for media nights, game play and much more.

17. 2026-05-05
    price $488,990 507-char remark

    Show marketing remark (507 chars)

    This new two-story home is designed for improved space and flexibility. The first floor is host to an open layout that seamlessly flows from the Great Room to the dining area and kitchen, while a dedicated flex is ready to be used as a home office, playroom or formal sitting area. The second floor delivers abundant living space with a tranquil owner's suite featuring luxurious bath and walk-in closet, three additional bedrooms and a spacious bonus room perfect for media nights, game play and much more.

18. 2026-03-31
    listed $486,990 Active 507-char remark

    Show marketing remark (507 chars)

    This new two-story home is designed for improved space and flexibility. The first floor is host to an open layout that seamlessly flows from the Great Room to the dining area and kitchen, while a dedicated flex is ready to be used as a home office, playroom or formal sitting area. The second floor delivers abundant living space with a tranquil owner's suite featuring luxurious bath and walk-in closet, three additional bedrooms and a spacious bonus room perfect for media nights, game play and much more.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $45,360
• − Mortgage interest: −$33,384
• − Property taxes: −$8,940
• − Insurance: −$2,980
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,629
• − Management: −$3,629
• − Depreciation: −$17,337
• Taxable loss: −$24,538
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,889
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,700/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Anoka-Hennepin Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2703180
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $73,837
• Composite: 46.7/100
• National rank: #2400
• State rank: #71 of 301 in MN

Livability — Dayton

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #337
• US rank: #7753

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dayton, MN
• City population: 5,542
• Population (ZIP): 5,542

Population outlook (Hennepin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,405,227 people
• By 2030: 1,492,650 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 1,660,157 · +18.1%
• By 2050: 1,823,498 · +29.8%
• By 2075: 2,221,283 · +58.1%
• By 2100: 2,509,976 · +78.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 5% Black 4% Asian 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 12% Romanian 8% Scottish 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Vietnam
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Vietnamese 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Hennepin

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+42.6) · D 70.2% · R 27.5% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.0pp toward D · 2008: 28.6pp · 2024: 42.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+42.6 2020: D+43.2 2016: D+35.3 2012: D+27.1 2008: D+28.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -125.93%
• Current HPI: 248.4283
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+0.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $488,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $486,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $488,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-31 Listed $486,990 Zillow