963 W Granite Dr · Rolling Hills, CA 93636

$470,000

5 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,534 sqft · SingleFamily · 105 Days on market

Built 2026 $185/sqft · 17% below area Est $569k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This new two-story home is ready for modern lifestyles. An open-concept layout combines the kitchen, living and dining areas for enhanced multitasking and transitions with a secluded office on the first floor. A bedroom at the back boasts convenient access to a spacious and flexible family room. On the second level are four additional bedrooms, including the lavish owner's suite toward the back of the home, offering direct access to a spa-inspired bathroom and generous walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Secluded office
• Flexible family room
• Open-concept layout

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• SECLUDED OFFICE
• FLEXIBLE FAMILY ROOM
• SPA-INSPIRED BATHROOM
• GENEROUS WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $470k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-580 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $386k (17.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $338k (28.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $338k (28.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.4% in Rolling Hills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#809 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: schools D+, housing D, amenities F.
• Golden Valley Unified (town): math 38% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #151 of 517 in CA (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 420 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,346 units permitted in Madera County in 2024 (8 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($133k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Madera County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 105 days — a 9% lower offer ($428k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 4→10/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $337,692 (28.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 105 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.29%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $569,065
• List price: $470,000
• Delta: -17.41%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1235 Traverse S	0.35mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,436 (-4%)	6mo	$552,550	$227	65
1264 Cathedral Ct S	0.44mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,436 (-4%)	3mo	$560,548	$230	64
846 Traverse Dr S	0.58mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,508 (-1%)	3mo	$592,690	$236	62
1276 Catherdral Ct S	0.48mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,436 (-4%)	3mo	$541,950	$222	61
856 Traverse Dr S	0.57mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,430 (-4%)	1mo	$567,900	$234	59
1158 Magnolia Ct W	0.38mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,436 (-4%)	13mo	$525,950	$216	58
1234 Talus Way S	0.59mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,436 (-4%)	2mo	$551,216	$226	57
1268 Traverse Dr S	0.41mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,436 (-4%)	13mo	$541,560	$222	57
1186 Magnolia Ct W	0.43mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,436 (-4%)	13mo	$553,066	$227	55
1124 Sophie Dr W	0.71mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,652 (+5%)	1mo	$792,400	$299	52
1039 Compass Dr W	0.60mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,240 (-12%)	2mo	$479,999	$214	42
946 Talus Way S	0.75mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,782 (+10%)	10mo	$770,100	$277	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-113,069
• Equity at exit: $70,079

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.11×
• Total profit: $-145,842
• Equity at exit: $40,637

Cash invested: $131,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93636

• Active inventory: 420
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,377 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,465
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$588 /mo · $7,050/yr
• Insurance: −$196
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$709
• Net cashflow: $-580

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,111

Max offer price $386,030

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $117,500
• Closing costs: $14,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1027 Deerhorn Dr W Madera, CA	4.0	2.0	1755	$2,695	$1.54	44d	1	0.64mi
997 Pioneer Dr W Madera, CA	4.0	3.0	2103	$2,950	$1.40	44d	1	0.66mi
391 Maclure Ave W Madera, CA	4.0	2.0	2000	$2,895	$1.45	10d	1	1.25mi
493 S Crescent Ln Madera, CA	4.0	2.0	2000	$2,895	$1.45	2d	1	1.30mi
463 S Crescent Ln Madera, CA	5.0	3.0	2480	$3,200	$1.29	24d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $470,000 Active 105 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $470,000 Active 104 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $470,000 Active 103 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $470,000 Active 102 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $470,000 Active 100 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $470,000 Active 99 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $470,000 Active 97 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $470,000 Active 96 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $470,000 Active 95 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $470,000 Active 94 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $470,000 Active 91 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $470,000 Active 90 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $470,000 Active 89 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $470,000 Active 88 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $470,000 Active 87 DOM
16. 2026-03-05
    listed $470,000 Active 489-char remark

    Show marketing remark (489 chars)

    This new two-story home is ready for modern lifestyles. An open-concept layout combines the kitchen, living and dining areas for enhanced multitasking and transitions with a secluded office on the first floor. A bedroom at the back boasts convenient access to a spacious and flexible family room. On the second level are four additional bedrooms, including the lavish owner's suite toward the back of the home, offering direct access to a spa-inspired bathroom and generous walk-in closet.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 4 d/yr ≥106°F today · 10 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 44 unhealthy d/yr today · 51 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,523
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,327
• − Property taxes: −$7,050
• − Insurance: −$2,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,242
• − Management: −$3,242
• − Depreciation: −$13,673
• Taxable loss: −$15,361
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,687
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,277/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Golden Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600068
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $74,067
• Composite: 42.12/100
• National rank: #3313
• State rank: #151 of 517 in CA

Livability — Rolling Hills

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #809
• US rank: #22874

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing D Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Madera County · 133,170 people
• Metro: Madera, CA
• Population (ZIP): 15,294
• Household income: $133,274
• Rent vs Own: 8.2% rent · 91.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 66.0

Population outlook (Madera County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 157,915 people
• By 2030: 159,604 · +1.1%
• By 2040: 163,454 · +3.5%
• By 2050: 167,071 · +5.8%
• By 2075: 171,182 · +8.4%
• By 2100: 162,781 · +3.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 20% Native American 5% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Russian 3% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 23% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Madera

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 38.4% · R 59.2% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.5pp toward R · 2008: -13.3pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+11.6 2016: R+17.3 2012: R+19.4 2008: R+13.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -345.88%
• Current HPI: 303.0675
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Madera, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-05 Listed $470,000 Zillow