14992 Ivy Blossom Ln · Magnolia, TX 77354

$232,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · SingleFamily · 21 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 7,156 sqft lot $63/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.9/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0

Listing remarks

WONDERFUL BRAND NEW D. R. Horton Home in Mill Creek! Single-story floor plan offers the perfect blend of space and comfort. Designed for modern living. The heart of the home is the open breakfast/family area seamlessly connected to the kitchen, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere for family gatherings and entertaining friends. Gorgeous modern designer features included! 3 spacious bedrooms! Step outside and relax on the back patio, overlooking the fully sodded yard. But that's not all – this home is equipped with a Smart Home package, adding convenience and style to your daily life. Experience the ease of controlling your home's features at your fingertips. Don't miss the oppor

Key facts

• Smart home package
• Fully sodded yard
• Back patio

Tags

• OPEN BREAKFAST FAMILY AREA
• BACK PATIO
• FULLY SODDED YARD
• SMART HOME PACKAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Builder: D.R. Horton
• HOA & community: Association: Inframark; Association fee $760 annually; Community pool

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2-car garage
• Security: Prewired; Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; New construction (under construction); South-facing; One story; Entry level: Slab
• Construction: Built in 2026; Brick and cement siding construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Private yard; Porch; Fence (back yard); Sprinkler/irrigation

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Quartz counters
• Bedrooms: 4 total rooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Plank; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Kitchen island; Kitchen and family room combo; Walk-in pantry; Pantry; Kitchen/dining combo; Living/dining room; Programmable thermostat; Low emissivity windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Tankless water heater

🏗️ New construction. The $232,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $243,200.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $233k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-16 ($-194/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $219k (6.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $219k (6.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.4% in Magnolia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Magnolia H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,248 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1621 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 0.3% rent growth), your $68k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($229k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $218,669 (6.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.29%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $243,200
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
40751 Barley Straw Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,328 (+4%)	2mo	$240,990	$181	88
40846 Hawthorne Glades St	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,280 (0%)	8mo	$242,990	$190	87
40859 Hawthorne Glades St	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,280 (0%)	9mo	$245,990	$192	87
40803 Hawthorne Glades St	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,280 (0%)	6mo	$246,990	$193	85
40850 Hawthorne Glades St	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,156 (-10%)	3mo	$236,990	$205	76
40958 Seasoned Oak Ln	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,156 (-10%)	8mo	$199,990	$173	69
15053 Cherry Creek Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,415 (+10%)	8mo	$275,490	$195	66
40842 Hawthorne Glades St	0.12mi	3/2.5	1,470 (+15%)	6mo	$252,990	$172	62
15146 Rose Willow Ln	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,156 (-10%)	8mo	$229,990	$199	62
40835 Hawthorne Glades St	0.15mi	3/2.5	1,470 (+15%)	6mo	$253,990	$173	61
40826 Hawthorne Glades St	0.15mi	3/2.5	1,470 (+15%)	6mo	$252,990	$172	61
40974 Seasoned Oak Ln	0.17mi	3/2.5	1,470 (+15%)	6mo	$251,490	$171	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.85×
• Total profit: $125,750
• Equity at exit: $219,094

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.30×
• Total profit: $360,843
• Equity at exit: $472,484

Cash invested: $68,096 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1621
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,187 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,275
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$304 /mo · $3,648/yr
• Insurance: −$101
• HOA: −$63
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$459
• Net cashflow: $-16

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,207

Max offer price $240,855

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $152	-5% $68	+0% $-16	+5% $-100	+10% $-184
Rent	-10% $-189	-5% $-103	+0% $-16	+5% $70	+10% $157
Rate	-1.0pp $106	-0.5pp $46	base $-16	+0.5pp $-79	+1.0pp $-143

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,800
• Closing costs: $7,296
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
40839 Hawthorne Glades St Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1156	$2,100	$1.82	44d	1	0.16mi
39899 Mill Creek Rd Magnolia, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1104	$2,726	$2.47	0d	40	1.15mi
40547 Berylline Ln Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	1753	$2,300	$1.31	44d	1	1.33mi
40558 Berylline Ln Unit NA Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1499	$2,150	$1.43	25d	1	1.34mi
21619 Bluebonnet Bay Dr Magnolia, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–2.5	1911	$2,235	$1.17	2d	1	1.35mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $63 · $756/yr

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $232,990 Active 21 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $232,990 Active 18 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $232,990 Active 17 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $232,990 Active 16 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $232,990 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $232,990 Active 13 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $232,990 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $232,990 Active 8 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $232,990 Active 7 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $232,990 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $232,990 Active 3 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $232,990 Active 2 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    remarks 693-char remark
14. 2026-06-01
    listed $232,990 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,240
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,623
• − Property taxes: −$3,648
• − Insurance: −$1,216
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,099
• − Management: −$2,099
• − HOA: −$756
• − Depreciation: −$7,075
• Taxable loss: −$4,276
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,026
• After-tax cash flow: $832/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-story home is in excellent condition with modern features and a smart home package. It offers a spacious and inviting interior with a well-maintained exterior and landscaping. The Smart Home package and updates to the flooring and paint can further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Smart Home package — Enhances convenience and adds modern appeal.
• Both Landscaping and patio — Improves curb appeal and outdoor living space.
• Both Painting — Fresh paint can make the home more appealing and increase its value.
• Both Flooring — Replacing worn-out flooring can improve the home's appearance and functionality.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Smart Home package — Enhances convenience and adds modern appeal. ↑
• Both Landscaping and patio — Improves curb appeal and outdoor living space. ↑
• Both Painting — Fresh paint can make the home more appealing and increase its value. ↑
• Both Flooring — Replacing worn-out flooring can improve the home's appearance and functionality. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 106,505
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-31 Listed $232,990 HARMLS