715 E Joshua Tree Dr · Meridian, ID 83646

$692,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,826 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 29 Days on market

Built 2006 7,840 sqft lot Est $763k · 9% under $67/mo HOA · 1% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.3/30.0
• ARV discount +11.6/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Highly Sought after Saguaro Canyon Subdivision in the heart of Meridian! Close proximity to schools, shopping, and more! This single level floor plan with three bedrooms plus an office on the main with a upstairs bonus, bed, and bath. Home has been updated in the last 4 years with new HVAC system. Appliances and interior paint brand new. Home is located in biking distance to schools and parks. Buyer and Buyers agent to verify all. Low HOA dues with community pool and park irrigation included in dues!!

Key facts

• Community pool
• Upstairs bonus
• Community park

Tags

• SAGUARO CANYON SUBDIVISION
• UPSTAIRS BONUS
• NEW HVAC SYSTEMS
• BIKING DISTANCE TO SCHOOLS
• COMMUNITY POOL
• COMMUNITY PARK

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in Meridian NE / Boise NW area
• HOA & community: Community association with annual fee of $800; Subdivision: Saguaro Canyon; Community pool and park nearby

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 3-car garage; 3 covered parking spaces
• Utilities: Sewer connected
• Home design: Single family residence; Built in 2006; Built by Alder Creek Home Co
• Construction: Stucco and wood siding; Composition roof; Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Wood fencing; Community in-ground pool; Auto sprinkler / full irrigation system

Interior

• Kitchen: Granite counters; Breakfast bar
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms — three on the main level, one upstairs
• Flooring: Hardwood; Tile; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 3 bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning; Heating and cooling present
• Interior features: Primary bedroom has an ensuite bath; Main-level primary bedroom; Rec/bonus room; Breakfast bar; Granite counters
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater; Tank water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $693k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-126 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $671k (3.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $514k (25.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $514k (25.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.1% in Meridian — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#10 in ID, #1,176 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living D+.
• Joint School District No. 2 (suburban): math 53% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #11 of 92 in ID (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Prospect Elementary School (math 63% / reading 60%, grade B, #68 of 357 statewide, top 19%, 532 students, 15% FRL); Heritage Middle School (math 63% / reading 79%, grade A, #1 of 109 statewide, top 0%, 1,062 students, 11% FRL); Rocky Mountain High School (math 47% / reading 76%, grade B-, #18 of 169 statewide, top 10%, 1,917 students, 8% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 905 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 5,129 units permitted in Ada County in 2024 (414 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,136/mo this rent would consume 60% of the median local household income ($103k/yr) (locally 1017% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $21k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ada County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($683k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $513,607 (25.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.78%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $763,020
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5363 N Red Hills Pl	0.09mi	4/3.0	2,686 (-5%)	2mo	$724,900	$270	86
891 E Silver Torch St	0.20mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,895 (+2%)	2mo	$699,000	$241	78
5423 N Isla Ave	0.31mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,767 (-2%)	1mo	$585,000	$211	74
5804 N Saguaro Hills Pl	0.29mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,718 (-4%)	0mo	$799,990	$294	73
4481 N Diamond Crk	0.57mi	4/2.5	2,826 (0%)	1mo	$635,000	$225	70
1082 E Azan St	0.38mi	4/3.0	3,041 (+8%)	2mo	$729,900	$240	68
869 E Territory St	0.48mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,680 (-5%)	1mo	$835,000	$312	63
1145 E Territory St	0.52mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,979 (+5%)	2mo	$1,015,000	$341	58
5832 N Claret Cup Way	0.33mi	4/2.0	2,439 (-14%)	1mo	$725,000	$297	57
5455 Peppard Ave	0.53mi	4/2.5	2,524 (-11%)	1mo	$649,900	$257	54
2515 W Cadbury Dr	0.74mi	4/2.5	3,002 (+6%)	1mo	$1,400,000	$466	52
6102 N Senita Hills Ave	0.46mi	5/4.0 (+1)	3,178 (+12%)	2mo	$719,990	$227	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-114,289
• Equity at exit: $103,327

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-84,440
• Equity at exit: $59,917

Cash invested: $194,037 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 91 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Idaho: 91 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+18
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempted; minimal tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 83646

• Home prices YoY: -33.6%
• Rents YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 905
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,136 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,634
• Tax from tax record: −$194 /mo · $2,324/yr
• Insurance: −$289
• HOA: −$67
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,079
• Net cashflow: $-126

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,296

Max offer price $670,722

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $266	-5% $70	+0% $-126	+5% $-322	+10% $-518
Rent	-10% $-532	-5% $-329	+0% $-126	+5% $77	+10% $280
Rate	-1.0pp $223	-0.5pp $50	base $-126	+0.5pp $-306	+1.0pp $-488

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $173,248
• Closing costs: $20,790
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5327 N Red Hills Pl Unit 1460932P Meridian, ID	5.0	2.5	3390	$7,384	$2.18	15d	1	0.09mi
236 W Wausau St Meridian, ID	4.0	2.5	2692	$2,795	$1.04	13d	1	0.91mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $67 · $804/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-04
   price $692,990
3. 2026-05-01
   price $709,990
4. 2026-04-23
   listed $724,990 Active
5. 2007-07-05
   soldstatus
6. 2007-07-03
   soldstatus
7. 2006-10-20
   listed $359,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast ID · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,324 · $194/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,782 · $398/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,457/yr (+$205/mo · 105.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 17% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 19 unhealthy d/yr today · 20 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $61,633
• − Mortgage interest: −$38,818
• − Property taxes: −$2,324
• − Insurance: −$3,465
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,931
• − Management: −$4,931
• − HOA: −$804
• − Depreciation: −$20,160
• Taxable loss: −$13,800
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,312
• After-tax cash flow: $1,799/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Joint School District No. 2
• NCES district ID: 1602100
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 67% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $64,573
• Composite: 52.42/100
• National rank: #1576
• State rank: #11 of 92 in ID

Livability — Meridian

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #10
• US rank: #1176

Category grades

Amenities B Commute A+ Cost of living D+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Meridian, ID
• County: Ada County · 522,161 people
• City population: 138,302
• Metro: Boise City, ID
• Population (ZIP): 76,023
• Household income: $102,861
• Rent vs Own: 19.8% rent · 80.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1017.0

Population outlook (Ada County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 535,818 people
• By 2030: 585,751 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 682,435 · +27.4%
• By 2050: 775,818 · +44.8%
• By 2075: 994,458 · +85.6%
• By 2100: 1,148,884 · +114.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 9% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Portuguese 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ada

• 2024 margin: R (+10.3) · D 43.4% · R 53.8% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: -6.2pp · 2024: -10.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.3 2020: R+3.9 2016: R+9.2 2012: R+11.3 2008: R+6.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -161.13%
• Current HPI: 318.2697
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.21%
• Metro: Boise City, ID
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.51%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in ID)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$79B
▸Technology	1	$25B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$6B

Price history

+92.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Pending — IMLS
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $692,990 IMLS
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $709,990 IMLS
• 2026-04-23 Listed $724,990 IMLS
• 2007-07-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-07-03 Sold (MLS) — IMLS
• 2006-10-20 Listed $359,900 IMLS

Property tax history

-2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,324 · -3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.