1050 Highway 44 Lot 215 · Shepherdsville, KY 40165

$69,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 980 sqft · Manufactured · 12 Days on market

Built 2020 Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home this newer home featuring a huge covered front porch perfect for relaxing or entertaining! Boasting 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms this home features an open layout and an impressive primary suite with a spa like bathroom you won't believe - complete with double vanity and oversized shower. Located in the highly sought after Autumn Leaf Community. This home offers comfort, style and convenience in a fantastic location. Buyers must apply for residency through Autumn Leaf Office.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Double vanity
• Primary suite

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• OPEN LAYOUT
• PRIMARY SUITE
• SPA LIKE BATHROOM
• DOUBLE VANITY
• OVERSIZED SHOWER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential
• HOA & community: No association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking
• Utilities: Electricity connected; One HVAC unit
• Home design: Residential single-story home; Entry includes a foyer
• Construction: Built in 2020; Vinyl siding with wood frame construction; Shingle roof; Above-grade finished living space
• Exterior features: Cleared, level lot; No fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: First-floor kitchen; Dining area adjacent to the kitchen
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms, all on the first floor; Primary bedroom on the first floor
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning; One HVAC unit
• Interior features: Foyer; Dining area; Living room; No basement; Seven total rooms; Three closets
• Laundry & utility: First-floor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $70k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $596 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $70k).
• Cap rate 23.9% vs local median 3.5% in Shepherdsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#119 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Bullitt County (suburban): math 29% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #55 of 165 in KY (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Shepherdsville Elementary (math 21% / reading 31%, grade F, #473 of 676 statewide, top 70%, 516 students, 72% FRL); Bullitt Lick Middle School (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #189 of 217 statewide, top 89%, 461 students, 67% FRL); Bullitt Central High School (math 28% / reading 25%, grade F, #174 of 254 statewide, top 69%, 1,363 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 64% FRL vs 41% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 270 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 380 units permitted in Bullitt County in 2024 (8 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $483 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bullitt County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $69,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.63% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 62.71%
• DSCR: 3.79
• GRM: 3.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.37×
• Total profit: $26,908
• Equity at exit: $10,422

10-year hold

• IRR: 39.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.75×
• Total profit: $73,374
• Equity at exit: $6,044

Cash invested: $19,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40165

• Home prices YoY: -26.9%
• Active inventory: 270
• Price-to-rent: 3.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,835 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$31 /mo · $376/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$385
• Net cashflow: $596

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,080

Max offer price $69,900

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $636	-5% $616	+0% $596	+5% $577	+10% $557
Rent	-10% $451	-5% $524	+0% $596	+5% $669	+10% $741
Rate	-1.0pp $632	-0.5pp $614	base $596	+0.5pp $578	+1.0pp $560

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,475
• Closing costs: $2,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
222 Mud Hen Dr Shepherdsville, KY	3.0	2.0	1042	$1,695	$1.63	19d	1	0.56mi
1701 Saltwell Springs Cir Shepherdsville, KY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1075	$2,275	$2.12	25d	1	0.57mi
309 Shannon Ln Unit SL8 Shepherdsville, KY	2.0	1.0	900	$1,100	$1.22	25d	1	0.84mi
309 Shannon Ln Unit SL1 Shepherdsville, KY	2.0	1.0	900	$1,100	$1.22	18d	1	0.84mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-10
   days on market $69,900 Active 12 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $69,900 Active 11 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $69,900 Active 10 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $69,900 Active 9 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $75,000 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $75,000 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $75,000 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $75,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $376 · $31/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $601 · $50/mo
• Expected delta: +$225/yr (+$19/mo · 59.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AE · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,024
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,915
• − Property taxes: −$376
• − Insurance: −$5,468
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,762
• − Management: −$1,762
• − Depreciation: −$2,033
• Taxable income: $6,707
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,610
• After-tax cash flow: $5,546/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in good condition with a good exterior and interior. It has a good curb appeal and is move-in ready. It would benefit from a fresh coat of paint and cleaning of gutters to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and make it more attractive to potential buyers.
• Rental Clean gutters — Clean gutters can prevent water damage and improve the home's overall appearance, attracting more renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and make it more attractive to potential buyers. ↑
• Rental Clean gutters — Clean gutters can prevent water damage and improve the home's overall appearance, attracting more renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bullitt County
• NCES district ID: 2100750
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $55,009
• Composite: 30.78/100
• National rank: #6151
• State rank: #55 of 165 in KY

Livability — Shepherdsville

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #119
• US rank: #5674

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shepherdsville, KY
• County: Bullitt County · 62,065 people
• City population: 38,403
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 38,403
• Household income: $79,540
• Rent vs Own: 17.3% rent · 82.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 800.0

Population outlook (Bullitt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 89,555 people
• By 2030: 94,389 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 102,759 · +14.7%
• By 2050: 108,955 · +21.7%
• By 2075: 121,898 · +36.1%
• By 2100: 126,383 · +41.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 3% Black 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Iranian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bullitt

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.0) · D 23.8% · R 74.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.7pp toward R · 2008: -32.3pp · 2024: -51.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.0 2020: R+48.0 2016: R+49.8 2012: R+35.7 2008: R+32.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -90.91%
• Current HPI: 247.1595
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $75,000 Metro Search MLS

Property tax history

-0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $376 · -1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.