240 Mangrove Bay Pl · Indian River Estates, FL 34982

$99,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,174 sqft · Manufactured public records · 51 Days on market

Built 1990 5,662 sqft lot Est $79k · 26% over $260/mo HOA · 12% of rent ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Motivated Seller. .. .priced to sell. .. .. and own the land, no lot fee on this lovely 2 bedroom 2 bathroom unit with wood floors and open kitchen. Brand New AC. .. Large master suite features double sinks and walk-in shower. Split floorplan with guest bedroom and bathroom located in front of house and master bedroom located in rear of home. Large screened porch with windows and AC unit. Covered carport for one car and room for second car in driveway.

Key facts

• Double sinks
• Wood floors
• Split floorplan

Tags

• WOOD FLOORS
• OPEN KITCHEN
• LARGE SCREENED PORCH
• DOUBLE SINKS
• WALK-IN SHOWER
• SPLIT FLOORPLAN

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Senior community
• Financial info: Not on land lease; Pets allowed (pet restrictions possible)
• HOA & community: Part of Tropical Isles association; Monthly HOA fee of $260; HOA includes sewer, trash, common areas, recreation facility, and pool service; Association amenities include pool (heated), shuffleboard, tennis courts, pickleball, management/manager on site, business center, community room, kitchen facilities, maintained community

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; Attached carport (1 covered/carport space, 1 open space); Concrete and covered parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); One story; Resale property; Faces south; East of US-1 road frontage
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Shingle roof; Block foundation; Aluminum skirting; Mobile home remains on site; Built as double wide manufactured home
• Exterior features: Screened porch; Porch; Many trees; Asphalt road frontage (public maintained road); Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Electric cooktop; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Laminate; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: High ceilings; Kitchen island; Split bedroom layout; Furnished
• Laundry & utility: Laundry closet inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $808 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $96k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.1% vs local median 5.3% in Indian River Estates — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#653 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• St. Lucie (urban): math 40% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #51 of 73 in FL (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.4%/yr); 336 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,868 units permitted in St. Lucie County in 2024 (268 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,097/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($54k/yr) (locally 1086% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Lucie County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.4% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($96k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $96,030 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.00%
• DSCR: 2.56
• GRM: 3.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $78,658
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5683 Hemingway Ct	0.29mi	2/2.0	1,144 (-3%)	1mo	$76,800	$67	82

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 36.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.64×
• Total profit: $45,322
• Equity at exit: $14,761

10-year hold

• IRR: 45.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.42×
• Total profit: $150,106
• Equity at exit: $8,560

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34982

• Home prices YoY: -33.4%
• Rents YoY: 7.4%
• Active inventory: 336
• Price-to-rent: 3.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,097 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$28 /mo · $335/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$260
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$440
• Net cashflow: $808

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,074

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 56%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $864	-5% $836	+0% $808	+5% $780	+10% $752
Rent	-10% $643	-5% $726	+0% $808	+5% $891	+10% $974
Rate	-1.0pp $858	-0.5pp $834	base $808	+0.5pp $783	+1.0pp $757

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
203 Melton Dr Unit B Fort Pierce, FL	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,800	$1.50	24d	1	0.23mi
341 Ashley St Fort Pierce, FL	3.0	2.0	1128	$2,460	$2.18	24d	1	0.43mi
355 Johnston St Fort Pierce, FL	3.0	1.5	1118	$2,500	$2.24	24d	1	0.46mi
352 Johnston St Fort Pierce, FL	3.0	2.0	936	$2,100	$2.24	24d	1	0.49mi
330 Borraclough St Fort Pierce, FL	3.0	2.0	1404	$2,175	$1.55	14d	1	0.57mi
492 Salisbury Cir Fort Pierce, FL	3.0	2.5	1486	$2,395	$1.61	24d	1	0.80mi
5300 Seagrape Dr Fort Pierce, FL	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,450	$1.88	24d	1	0.83mi
526 Salisbury Cir Fort Pierce, FL	3.0	2.5	1486	$2,399	$1.61	14d	1	0.83mi
5315 Hickory Dr Fort Pierce, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,045	$1.46	24d	1	1.02mi
699 W Weatherbee Rd Fort Pierce, FL	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,875	$1.70	24d	1	1.14mi
4591 Whispering Pines Ln Fort Pierce, FL	2.0	1.0–2.0	576	$1,850	$3.21	24d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $260 · $3,120/yr

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,000 Active 51 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   remarks 456-char remark
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,000 Active 50 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,000 Active 49 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,000 Active 48 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $99,000 Active 46 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,000 Active 45 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $99,000 Active 43 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,000 Active 42 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    price $99,000 Active 41 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $114,000 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $114,000 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $114,000 Active 37 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $114,000 Active 36 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $114,000 Active 35 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $114,000 Active 34 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $114,000 Active 33 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $114,000 Active 32 DOM
19. 2026-05-12
    price $114,000
20. 2026-04-28
    listed $129,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $335 · $28/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $822 · $68/mo
• Expected delta: +$487/yr (+$41/mo · 145.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,166
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$335
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,013
• − Management: −$2,013
• − HOA: −$3,120
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $8,764
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,103
• After-tax cash flow: $7,598/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Lucie
• NCES district ID: 1201770
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,737
• Composite: 37.28/100
• National rank: #4449
• State rank: #51 of 73 in FL

Livability — Indian River Estates

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #653
• US rank: #12946

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Indian River Estates, FL
• County: Saint Lucie County · 337,150 people
• City population: 27,447
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,143
• Household income: $54,082
• Rent vs Own: 27.5% rent · 72.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1086.0

Population outlook (St. Lucie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 338,016 people
• By 2030: 355,687 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 385,521 · +14.1%
• By 2050: 406,106 · +20.1%
• By 2075: 441,054 · +30.5%
• By 2100: 436,885 · +29.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 12% Black 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 7% Hispanic 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 16% French/Haitian/Cajun 3%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Lucie

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.1) · D 45.1% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.1pp · 2024: -9.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.1 2020: R+1.6 2016: R+2.5 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+12.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -199.47%
• Current HPI: 397.2649
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.42%
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-11.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $114,000 Beaches MLS
• 2026-04-28 Listed $129,000 Beaches MLS

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $335 · +3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.