1200 S Carpenter Rd #38 · Modesto, CA 95351

$45,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,376 sqft · Manufactured · 18 Days on market

Built 1981 Est $87k · 48% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Carpenter #38. This established community is for seniors 55 and over. Property offers two bedrooms and two full baths with the living space of over 1300 ft. Enjoy your senior years in a gated community. Enjoy Park activities, pool, facilities, and the community recreation hall. The SR. Park is located near stores and restaurants. Come and fall in love with 1200 S. Carpenter Road unit 38.

Key facts

• Gated community
• Pool facilities
• Parking

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• COMMUNITY RECREATION HALL
• POOL FACILITIES
• NEAR STORES AND RESTAURANTS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Land lease: no (listing also shows a land lease amount field)
• Financial info: Not provided
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Parking details not provided
• Security: No specific security features listed
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; 220V in kitchen; Other electric utilities
• Home design: Manufactured home in a park; Double wide; Located in a senior community; Facing information not provided
• Construction: Built in 1981; Aluminum skirting; Shake roof; Champion manufactured home
• Exterior features: Backyard; Exterior storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Breakfast area; Ceramic countertops
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum; Other flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Tub with shower over
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central cooling
• Interior features: Pets allowed; Living room with flexible/other features; Dining area with flexible/other features
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $44k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 35.0% vs local median 3.2% in Modesto — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#451 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, schools D+, health & safety D+.
• Modesto City Elementary (urban): math 15% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #462 of 517 in CA (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 109 active listings in the ZIP; 923 units permitted in Stanislaus County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $311 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Stanislaus County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $44,325 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.90% ✓
• Cap rate: 34.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 102.35%
• DSCR: 5.55
• GRM: 2.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $86,688
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1200 S Carpenter Rd #144	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-2%)	1mo	$83,000	$62	89
1200 S Carpenter Rd #72	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-2%)	16mo	$89,800	$67	83
1200 S Carpenter Rd #133	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (-2%)	11mo	$90,000	$67	82
1200 S Carpenter Rd #40	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-2%)	18mo	$50,000	$37	76
1200 S Carpenter Rd #127	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (+5%)	14mo	$90,000	$63	76
1200 S Carpenter Rd #66	0.20mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-9%)	15mo	$85,000	$68	63
1200 S Carpenter Rd #118	0.20mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (+5%)	20mo	$87,000	$60	62
1200 S Carpenter Rd #74	0.13mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (-9%)	15mo	$55,000	$44	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 5.86×
• Total profit: $61,179
• Equity at exit: $6,710

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 12.23×
• Total profit: $141,515
• Equity at exit: $3,891

Cash invested: $12,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95351

• Active inventory: 109
• Price-to-rent: 2.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,754 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$56 /mo · $675/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$368
• Net cashflow: $1,075

Break-even live

Break-even rent $394

Max offer price $45,000

Occupancy floor 34%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,250
• Closing costs: $1,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-05-30
   status $45,000 Pending 18 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 33 unhealthy d/yr today · 38 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,048
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,521
• − Property taxes: −$675
• − Insurance: −$225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,684
• − Management: −$1,684
• − Depreciation: −$1,309
• Taxable income: $12,950
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,108
• After-tax cash flow: $9,788/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Modesto City Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0625130
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $39,725
• Composite: 17.31/100
• National rank: #9083
• State rank: #462 of 517 in CA

Livability — Modesto

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #451
• US rank: #15229

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute D Cost of living F Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Modesto, CA
• County: Stanislaus County · 445,786 people
• City population: 225,261
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• Population (ZIP): 48,498
• Household income: $58,275
• Rent vs Own: 51.7% rent · 48.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1964.0

Population outlook (Stanislaus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 579,493 people
• By 2030: 598,000 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 630,930 · +8.9%
• By 2050: 658,300 · +13.6%
• By 2075: 712,363 · +22.9%
• By 2100: 719,805 · +24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 76% Two or more races 40% White 13% Asian 5% Black 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 72%
• Common ancestry: Russian 1% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Canada
• Languages at home: 34% English-only · Spanish 62% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Stanislaus

• 2024 margin: R (+11.0) · D 43.2% · R 54.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 1.7pp · 2024: -11.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.0 2020: D+0.8 2016: D+0.6 2012: D+0.7 2008: D+1.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -405.77%
• Current HPI: 360.246
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B