15536 Firetower Rd · Grangerland, TX 77306

$113,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,824 sqft · SingleFamily · 6 Days on market

Built 1990 1.12 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.1/30.0
• DSCR +9.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Find your dream home in the woods? Say no more! This property offers 2 full bedrooms, 1 full bathroom. The kitchen has an open concept to the living room for easy entertainment. This property seems like a perfect place to escape after the hustle and bustle of work life. 15536 Firetower Rd is a house located in Montgomery County and the 77306 zip code. This area is served by the Conroe Independent School District attendance zone.

Key facts

• 1.12 acre lot
• Built 1990
• Listed 5 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot access via dirt and gravel roads; Approximately 1.12 acres
• Financial info: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Parking: No designated parking
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1990; Block foundation; Metal roof
• Construction: Unknown construction materials
• Exterior features: Fence; Private yard; Storage shed(s); Partial backyard fencing; Cleared and wooded lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Convection oven; Electric cooktop; Electric range
• Bedrooms: 2 total rooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas); Central air conditioning (electric and gas)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Tub with shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $113k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-106 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $98k (13.5% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $113k).
• Recommended offer: $98k (13.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 5.1% in Grangerland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Caney Creek H S (math 33% / reading 42%, grade F, #888 of 1,632 statewide, top 55%, 2,504 students, 79% FRL) — zoned schools average 79% FRL vs 34% district-wide (45 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 38% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-20 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 416 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $781 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $97,722 (13.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.17%
• DSCR: 1.54
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $295,488
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15540 Firetower Rd	0.03mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,824 (0%)	1mo	$199,500	$109	91
15720 Deer Ridge Dr	0.13mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,659 (-9%)	21mo	$269,000	$162	56
15558 Towerwood Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,750 (-4%)	12mo	$380,000	$217	54
15673 Firetower Rd	0.54mi	3/2.0 (+1)	2,033 (+12%)	4mo	$319,000	$157	43
15627 Towerwood Dr	0.49mi	3/2.5 (+1)	2,082 (+14%)	7mo	$385,000	$185	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-24,752
• Equity at exit: $16,849

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-29,063
• Equity at exit: $9,770

Cash invested: $31,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77306

• Home prices YoY: -4.1%
• Active inventory: 416
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,395 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$593
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$141 /mo · $1,695/yr
• Insurance: −$47
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$293
• Net cashflow: $-106

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,528

Max offer price $97,722

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-27	-5% $-67	+0% $-106	+5% $-145	+10% $-184
Rent	-10% $-216	-5% $-161	+0% $-106	+5% $-50	+10% $5
Rate	-1.0pp $-49	-0.5pp $-77	base $-106	+0.5pp $-135	+1.0pp $-165

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,250
• Closing costs: $3,390
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14373 Twin Lakes Cir Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1900	$1,400	$0.74	45d	1	1.23mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $113,000 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $113,000 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $113,000 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   remarks 432-char remark
5. 2026-06-16
   listed $113,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AE · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,737
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,330
• − Property taxes: −$1,695
• − Insurance: −$5,684
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,339
• − Management: −$1,339
• − Depreciation: −$3,287
• Taxable loss: −$2,936
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$705
• After-tax cash flow: $-562/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Grangerland

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,086
• Household income: $76,257
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 231.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 41% Two or more races 11% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 51%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada
• Languages at home: 53% English-only · Spanish 45% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -13.02%
• Current HPI: 306.3801
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+11200.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listed $113,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-18 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-01-11 Listed $113,000 HARMLS
• 2024-05-26 Rental Removed $1,000 HARMLS
• 2024-05-15 Listed for Rent $1,000 HARMLS