333 Honeyville Ave · Stanley, VA 22851

$327,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,596 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 52 Days on market

Built 1923 0.84 ac lot $205/sqft · 31% above area Est $250k · 31% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.5/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

This beautifully renovated 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom farm house boasts 1505 square feet of modern living space, perfectly situated on a generous 0.84-acre lot. Enjoy breathtaking mountain views from your open backyard, ideal for outdoor gatherings and relaxation. Step inside to discover a brand new HVAC system, water heater, and brand new appliances, including a refrigerator, range, dishwasher, and microwave. The home features new electrical and plumbing systems, along with fresh drywall and luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout. The stylish new kitchen showcases new white cabinets and stunning quartz countertops, perfect for culinary enthusiasts. Both bathrooms have been fully renovated with contemporary finishes, ensuring comfort and style. The new light fixtures and fresh paint create a welcoming atmosphere throughout the home. Outside, you’ll find a detached building offering ample space for multiple vehicles, alongside a convenient carport and storage shed. This versatile building could easily serve as a workshop or additional storage space. This property combines modern amenities with the tranquility of mountain living. Conveniently located about 10 minutes to shopping, and Town of Luray!

Key facts

• 0.84 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1923

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $328k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $313 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $284k (13.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $284k (13.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 4.8% in Stanley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#257 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Page County Public School District (rural): math 42% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #96 of 131 in VA (top 73%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Stanley Elementary (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #866 of 1,108 statewide, top 80%, 361 students, 87% FRL); Page County Middle (math 36% / reading 60%, grade C-, #247 of 342 statewide, top 74%, 352 students, 70% FRL); Page County High (math 67% / reading 67%, grade B, #185 of 319 statewide, top 61%, 495 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 45% district-wide (31 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 46 active listings in the ZIP; 164 units permitted in Page County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $35k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $33k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Page County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $92k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$56k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($318k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1923 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $283,780 (13.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1923 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.10%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $250,499
• List price: $327,900
• Delta: 30.90%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
333 Honeyville Ave	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,505 (-6%)	19mo	$310,000	$206	70
140 Wayland Dr	0.41mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,590 (-0%)	11mo	$233,450	$147	64
553 Park Rd	0.25mi	4/2.5	1,677 (+5%)	18mo	$331,000	$197	62
218 Honeyville Rd	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,425 (-11%)	6mo	$340,000	$239	58
1087 Judy Ln	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,500 (-6%)	8mo	$320,000	$213	56
357 Park Rd	0.39mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,503 (-6%)	15mo	$313,500	$209	55
355 Park Rd	0.35mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,380 (-14%)	2mo	$250,000	$181	54
885 Main St W	0.74mi	4/2.0	1,682 (+5%)	6mo	$251,000	$149	51
841 Judy Lane Ext	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,476 (-8%)	4mo	$319,000	$216	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.16×
• Total profit: $198,377
• Equity at exit: $295,398

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.8%
• Equity multiple: 7.19×
• Total profit: $568,164
• Equity at exit: $637,038

Cash invested: $91,812 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22851

• Home prices YoY: 9.0%
• Active inventory: 46
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,838 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,720
• Tax from tax record: −$72 /mo · $868/yr
• Insurance: −$137
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$596
• Net cashflow: $313

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,441

Max offer price $327,900

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $499	-5% $406	+0% $313	+5% $221	+10% $128
Rent	-10% $89	-5% $201	+0% $313	+5% $425	+10% $538
Rate	-1.0pp $478	-0.5pp $397	base $313	+0.5pp $228	+1.0pp $142

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,975
• Closing costs: $9,837
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-13
   historical Active Under Contract
2. 2026-05-04
   price $327,900
3. 2026-03-27
   listed $329,900 Active
4. 2024-11-22
   soldstatus $310,000 Sold 1216-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1216 chars)

   This beautifully renovated 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom farm house boasts 1505 square feet of modern living space, perfectly situated on a generous 0.84-acre lot. Enjoy breathtaking mountain views from your open backyard, ideal for outdoor gatherings and relaxation. Step inside to discover a brand new HVAC system, water heater, and brand new appliances, including a refrigerator, range, dishwasher, and microwave. The home features new electrical and plumbing systems, along with fresh drywall and luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout. The stylish new kitchen showcases new white cabinets and stunning quartz countertops, perfect for culinary enthusiasts. Both bathrooms have been fully renovated with contemporary finishes, ensuring comfort and style. The new light fixtures and fresh paint create a welcoming atmosphere throughout the home. Outside, you’ll find a detached building offering ample space for multiple vehicles, alongside a convenient carport and storage shed. This versatile building could easily serve as a workshop or additional storage space. This property combines modern amenities with the tranquility of mountain living. Conveniently located about 10 minutes to shopping, and Town of Luray!

5. 2024-10-24
   status Pending 1216-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1216 chars)

   This beautifully renovated 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom farm house boasts 1505 square feet of modern living space, perfectly situated on a generous 0.84-acre lot. Enjoy breathtaking mountain views from your open backyard, ideal for outdoor gatherings and relaxation. Step inside to discover a brand new HVAC system, water heater, and brand new appliances, including a refrigerator, range, dishwasher, and microwave. The home features new electrical and plumbing systems, along with fresh drywall and luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout. The stylish new kitchen showcases new white cabinets and stunning quartz countertops, perfect for culinary enthusiasts. Both bathrooms have been fully renovated with contemporary finishes, ensuring comfort and style. The new light fixtures and fresh paint create a welcoming atmosphere throughout the home. Outside, you’ll find a detached building offering ample space for multiple vehicles, alongside a convenient carport and storage shed. This versatile building could easily serve as a workshop or additional storage space. This property combines modern amenities with the tranquility of mountain living. Conveniently located about 10 minutes to shopping, and Town of Luray!

6. 2024-10-21
   listed $299,900 Active 1216-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1216 chars)

   This beautifully renovated 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom farm house boasts 1505 square feet of modern living space, perfectly situated on a generous 0.84-acre lot. Enjoy breathtaking mountain views from your open backyard, ideal for outdoor gatherings and relaxation. Step inside to discover a brand new HVAC system, water heater, and brand new appliances, including a refrigerator, range, dishwasher, and microwave. The home features new electrical and plumbing systems, along with fresh drywall and luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout. The stylish new kitchen showcases new white cabinets and stunning quartz countertops, perfect for culinary enthusiasts. Both bathrooms have been fully renovated with contemporary finishes, ensuring comfort and style. The new light fixtures and fresh paint create a welcoming atmosphere throughout the home. Outside, you’ll find a detached building offering ample space for multiple vehicles, alongside a convenient carport and storage shed. This versatile building could easily serve as a workshop or additional storage space. This property combines modern amenities with the tranquility of mountain living. Conveniently located about 10 minutes to shopping, and Town of Luray!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $868 · $72/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,689 · $224/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,821/yr (+$152/mo · 209.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,054
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,367
• − Property taxes: −$868
• − Insurance: −$1,640
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,724
• − Management: −$2,724
• − Depreciation: −$9,539
• Taxable loss: −$1,809
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$434
• After-tax cash flow: $4,194/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Page County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102850
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -35.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $43,808
• Composite: 43.77/100
• National rank: #2943
• State rank: #96 of 131 in VA

Livability — Stanley

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #257
• US rank: #8832

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Stanley, VA
• Population (ZIP): 5,894

Population outlook (Page County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 22,843 people
• By 2030: 22,147 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 20,427 · -10.6%
• By 2050: 18,461 · -19.2%
• By 2075: 14,363 · -37.1%
• By 2100: 10,678 · -53.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Page

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+54.1) · D 22.5% · R 76.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.7pp toward R · 2008: -17.4pp · 2024: -54.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+54.1 2020: R+50.6 2016: R+49.8 2012: R+25.7 2008: R+17.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.09%
• Current HPI: 350.7392
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+9.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $327,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-27 Listed $329,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-11-22 Sold (MLS) $310,000 HRAR
• 2024-10-24 Pending — HRAR
• 2024-10-21 Listed $299,900 HRAR

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $868 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.