821 S Ripple Creek Dr #1 · Houston, TX 77057

$190,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,645 sqft · SingleFamily · 33 Days on market

Built 1969 Good condition 1.19 ac lot Est $266k · 29% under $505/mo HOA · 24% of rent ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.1/30.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Appreciation +4.4/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0

Listing remarks

Conveniently located Tanglewood area 2 BR condo. Spacious living room downstairs. New carpet (Sept 2025). Private courtyard in front, plus a private patio in back. Covered parking. Great location - Walk across the street to Second Baptist. . For Lease $1500

Key facts

• Covered parking
• Private patio
• Private courtyard

Tags

• PRIVATE COURTYARD
• PRIVATE PATIO
• COVERED PARKING

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease considered
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $505 covering common areas, insurance, structure maintenance, recreation facilities, sewer, trash and water

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking; 1-car carport
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; 2 stories; Built in 1969; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Brick and wood siding construction
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 5 total rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Wood-burning fireplace; Tub with shower; Ceiling fans

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $190,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$266,490) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $190k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-147 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $169k (11.2% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• Recommended offer: $169k (11.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Briargrove El (math 33% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,744 of 4,322 statewide, top 41%, 836 students, 56% FRL); Tanglewood Middle (math 29% / reading 42%, grade F, #827 of 1,662 statewide, top 51%, 808 students, 62% FRL); Wisdom H S (math 17% / reading 16%, grade F, #1,497 of 1,632 statewide, top 92%, 2,260 students, 97% FRL) — zoned schools at 71% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.8%/yr); 392 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.2%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($184k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask is 12567% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 24% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $168,780 (11.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.37%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.31%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $266,490
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6315 Crab Orchard Rd	0.07mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,700 (+3%)	4mo	$275,000	$162	80
1414 Wood Hollow Dr Unit 638	0.47mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (-5%)	21mo	$215,000	$138	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.23% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-31,483
• Equity at exit: $43,758

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-48,556
• Equity at exit: $44,179

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77057

• Home prices YoY: -0.7%
• Rents YoY: -1.8%
• Active inventory: 392
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,116 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$238 /mo · $2,850/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$505
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$444
• Net cashflow: $-147

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,301

Max offer price $168,780

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-15	-5% $-81	+0% $-147	+5% $-212	+10% $-278
Rent	-10% $-314	-5% $-230	+0% $-147	+5% $-63	+10% $20
Rate	-1.0pp $-51	-0.5pp $-98	base $-147	+0.5pp $-196	+1.0pp $-246

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
903 S Ripple Creek Dr Houston, TX	2.0	2.5	1350	$1,399	$1.04	45d	1	0.06mi
1236 Winrock Blvd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1320	$1,810	$1.37	45d	1	0.29mi
1200 Winrock Blvd Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1063	$2,034	$1.91	1d	36	0.32mi
1414 Wood Hollow Dr Unit 1-552 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1398	$2,960	$2.12	3d	1	0.45mi
1414 Wood Hollow Dr Unit 1-414 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1453	$3,320	$2.28	5d	1	0.45mi
1414 Wood Hollow Dr Unit 1-737 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1408	$2,940	$2.09	45d	1	0.45mi
1414 Wood Hollow Dr Unit 1-827 Houston, TX	2.0	2.5	1562	$3,048	$1.95	45d	1	0.45mi
1414 Wood Hollow Dr Unit 1447 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1912	$3,727	$1.95	12d	1	0.45mi
1414 Wood Hollow Dr Unit 1-527 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1562	$3,550	$2.27	1d	1	0.45mi
1414 Wood Hollow Dr Unit 3187 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1912	$3,687	$1.93	0d	1	0.45mi
1414 Wood Hollow Dr Unit 2187 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1398	$2,907	$2.08	0d	1	0.45mi
1414 Wood Hollow Dr Unit 1437 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1398	$2,947	$2.11	12d	1	0.45mi
6464 San Felipe St Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1067	$1,924	$1.80	1d	21	0.54mi
6524 San Felipe St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1223	$1,823	$1.49	45d	1	0.63mi
6363 San Felipe St Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	985	$2,082	$2.11	0d	40	0.71mi
1950 Winrock Blvd Houston, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	1050	$2,736	$2.61	1d	110	0.79mi
2021 Winrock Blvd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1120	$1,500	$1.34	45d	1	0.79mi
2010 Winrock Blvd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1097	$1,185	$1.08	45d	1	0.79mi
2010 Winrock Blvd Houston, TX	2.0	2.5	1400	$1,820	$1.30	18d	1	0.79mi
2001 S Voss Rd Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	892	$2,335	$2.62	0d	15	0.84mi
1300 Augusta Dr Unit 2958 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1285	$1,785	$1.39	45d	1	0.89mi
1300 Augusta Dr Unit 7258 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1358	$1,702	$1.25	45d	1	0.89mi
824 Bering Dr Unit 861 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1724	$2,399	$1.39	0d	1	1.00mi
824 Bering Dr Unit 2187 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1724	$2,440	$1.42	0d	1	1.00mi
824 Bering Dr Unit 2162 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1724	$2,415	$1.40	9d	1	1.00mi
700 Kuhlman Rd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1500	$2,325	$1.55	13d	1	1.04mi
2235 Winrock Blvd Unit 2268 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1218	$1,387	$1.14	0d	1	1.04mi
5800 Woodway Dr Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1153	$1,772	$1.54	1d	13	1.04mi
1112 Bering Dr #67 Houston, TX	2.0	2.5	1610	$2,200	$1.37	26d	1	1.08mi
5880 Inwood Dr Unit 2174 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1085	$1,530	$1.41	0d	1	1.09mi
5880 Inwood Dr Unit 3174 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1257	$1,953	$1.55	12d	1	1.09mi
5880 Inwood Dr Unit 5913 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1462	$2,262	$1.55	18d	1	1.09mi
5880 Inwood Dr Unit 5917 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1085	$1,650	$1.52	45d	1	1.09mi
5880 Inwood Dr Unit 5903 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1071	$1,712	$1.60	14d	1	1.09mi
5880 Inwood Dr Unit 422 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1085	$1,505	$1.39	9d	1	1.09mi
661 Bering Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1698	$3,500	$2.06	45d	1	1.09mi
5880 Inwood Dr Unit 2162 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1085	$1,505	$1.39	7d	1	1.12mi
5880 Inwood Dr Unit 5937 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1085	$1,529	$1.41	12d	1	1.12mi
5880 Inwood Dr Unit 2148 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1085	$1,489	$1.37	0d	1	1.12mi
5886 Inwood Dr Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1077	$1,847	$1.71	45d	1	1.12mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $505 · $6,060/yr

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $190,000 Active 33 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $190,000 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $190,000 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $190,000 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $190,000 Active 27 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $190,000 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $190,000 Active 21 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $190,000 Active 20 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $190,000 Active 19 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $195,000 Active 16 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $195,000 Active 13 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $195,000 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-05-20
    listed $1,500
14. 2026-05-19
    listed $195,000 Active
15. 2026-04-08
    historical
16. 2026-03-06
    price $215,000
17. 2026-02-11
    price $225,000
18. 2025-12-22
    price $229,000
19. 2025-10-15
    price $239,000
20. 2025-09-24
    listed $242,500 Active
21. 2025-09-21
    historical
22. 2025-08-01
    historical $1,595
23. 2025-07-08
    listed $1,595
24. 2025-06-30
    historical $1,595
25. 2025-05-13
    listed $257,000 Active
26. 2025-03-04
    price $1,595
27. 2025-01-21
    price $1,625
28. 2025-01-04
    price $1,725
29. 2024-11-27
    listed $1,800

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,388
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$2,850
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,031
• − Management: −$2,031
• − HOA: −$6,060
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable loss: −$4,704
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,129
• After-tax cash flow: $-631/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home in the Tanglewood area is in good condition with minimal repairs needed. Fresh paint and landscaping improvements would significantly enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the exterior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and resale value.
• Both Replace the ceiling fan — A modern ceiling fan can improve air circulation and aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping enhances curb appeal and rental value.
• Both Replace the fireplace — A new fireplace can add value and functionality to the living space.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint the exterior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and resale value. ↑
• Both Replace the ceiling fan — A modern ceiling fan can improve air circulation and aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping enhances curb appeal and rental value. ↑
• Both Replace the fireplace — A new fireplace can add value and functionality to the living space. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 46,569
• Household income: $66,971
• Rent vs Own: 68.2% rent · 31.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 3533.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 38% White 37% Two or more races 22% Black 12% Asian 10% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 38% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 50% English-only · Spanish 33% Other Indo-European 6% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.23%
• Current HPI: 167.8863
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.83%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-16.7% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed for Rent $1,500 HARMLS
• 2026-05-19 Listed $195,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-08 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $215,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-11 Price Changed $225,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-22 Price Changed $229,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-15 Price Changed $239,000 HARMLS
• 2025-09-24 Listed $242,500 HARMLS
• 2025-09-21 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-08-01 Rental Removed $1,595 HARMLS
• 2025-07-08 Listed for Rent $1,595 HARMLS
• 2025-06-30 Rental Removed $1,595 HARMLS
• 2025-05-13 Listed $257,000 HARMLS
• 2025-03-04 Price Changed $1,595 HARMLS
• 2025-01-21 Price Changed $1,625 HARMLS
• 2025-01-04 Price Changed $1,725 HARMLS
• 2024-11-27 Listed for Rent $1,800 HARMLS