11504 Mary Shelley Pl · Waldorf, MD 20695

$390,000

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,941 sqft · Townhouse public records · 104 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition 1,873 sqft lot $201/sqft · 14% below area Est $451k · 14% under $88/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.6/15.0
• Cash flow +8.7/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Showings Saturday 10am - 3pm only. Current $390k value set by the short sale lender. Modern open layout with spacious kitchen. The first level has a recreation area and half bathroom. Would be perfect for home office. Single car garage with additional storage area. Main level has LVP flooring, quartz counters, high end appliances, gorgeous cabinets, deep bowl sink, large dining area as well as a huge family room area. Deck has trex boards with plenty of space to entertain and hang out. Upper level has 2 large bedrooms with 2 in suite bathrooms. Both bedrooms are large with plenty of light and closet space. This house is practically new. Schedule a time to see it today.

Key facts

• $88 HOA
• Garage
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $390k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-331 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $332k (15.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $322k (17.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $322k (17.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#141 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Charles County Public Schools (suburban): math 13% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #14 of 24 in MD (top 58%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Mary H. Matula Elementary School (math 14% / reading 23%, grade F, #393 of 860 statewide, top 46%, 551 students, 36% FRL); Milton M. Somers Middle School (math 15% / reading 36%, grade F, #97 of 225 statewide, top 46%, 666 students, 39% FRL); La Plata High School (math 51% / reading 74%, grade B-, #62 of 222 statewide, top 29%, 1,222 students, 25% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 36% at this address vs 21% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Charles County Public Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 281 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 55d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 63% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,542 units permitted in Charles County in 2024 (516 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Charles County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 104 days — a 9% lower offer ($355k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask is 4% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Recommended offer $322,368 (17.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 104 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.64%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $451,033
• List price: $390,000
• Delta: -13.53%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5907 Kate Chopin Pl	0.04mi	3/3.5 (+1)	2,093 (+8%)	2mo	$405,000	$194	76
5921 Kate Chopin Pl	0.03mi	3/3.5 (+1)	2,085 (+7%)	7mo	$399,999	$192	73
5802 John Keats Pl	0.22mi	3/3.0 (+1)	2,089 (+8%)	8mo	$410,000	$196	65
10799 Cosmic Pl	0.44mi	2/3.0	1,837 (-5%)	9mo	$349,990	$191	63
10800 Cosmic Pl	0.44mi	3/3.0 (+1)	1,842 (-5%)	5mo	$389,990	$212	61
10774 Cosmic Pl	0.45mi	3/3.0 (+1)	1,842 (-5%)	9mo	$387,390	$210	58
10815 Cosmic Pl	0.44mi	3/3.5 (+1)	1,842 (-5%)	8mo	$400,890	$218	58
10632 Great Basin Pl	0.75mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,917 (-1%)	2mo	$359,990	$188	54
10795 Cosmic Pl	0.44mi	3/3.0 (+1)	2,117 (+9%)	7mo	$390,000	$184	54
10788 Cosmic Pl	0.45mi	3/3.0 (+1)	2,117 (+9%)	9mo	$433,390	$205	52
5335 Tweeddale Pl	0.66mi	3/3.0 (+1)	2,212 (+14%)	3mo	$465,000	$210	38
10640 Great Basin Pl	0.73mi	3/2.5 (+1)	2,172 (+12%)	9mo	$400,000	$184	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-84,116
• Equity at exit: $58,150

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-99,737
• Equity at exit: $33,720

Cash invested: $109,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 25 active · 14 under contract
• Months of supply: 13.6 mo (7%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $409,990 ($201/sqft)
• Median days on market: 110 d
• This list price: 24% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +15.4% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 20695

• Home prices YoY: -5.3%
• Active inventory: 281
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,224 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,045
• Tax from tax record: −$582 /mo · $6,984/yr
• Insurance: −$162
• HOA: −$88
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$677
• Net cashflow: $-331

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,643

Max offer price $331,532

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-110	-5% $-221	+0% $-331	+5% $-441	+10% $-552
Rent	-10% $-586	-5% $-458	+0% $-331	+5% $-204	+10% $-76
Rate	-1.0pp $-135	-0.5pp $-232	base $-331	+0.5pp $-432	+1.0pp $-535

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $97,500
• Closing costs: $11,700
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5754 Frederick Douglas Pl White Plains, MD	3.0	3.5	2220	$3,500	$1.58	93d	1	0.22mi
11687 Emily Dickinson Pl White Plains, MD	3.0	3.5	2496	$3,500	$1.40	12d	1	0.42mi
5457 Spotswood Pl White Plains, MD	3.0	2.5	2180	$3,200	$1.47	23d	1	0.65mi
4165 Brodie Pl White Plains, MD	3.0	3.5	2544	$3,000	$1.18	66d	1	0.71mi
4152 Skipton Pl White Plains, MD	3.0	2.5	2529	$3,300	$1.30	33d	1	0.72mi
11177 Southport Pl White Plains, MD	3.0	2.5	1718	$2,950	$1.72	3d	1	0.75mi
11180 Conway Pl White Plains, MD	3.0	2.5	1765	$3,418	$1.94	0d	10	0.78mi
5525 Peanuts Ln Waldorf, MD	3.0	4.0	2160	$3,400	$1.57	93d	1	0.89mi
5427 Doubleday Ln Waldorf, MD	3.0	2.0	2160	$3,169	$1.47	0d	1	0.97mi
5692 Glencoe Pl White Plains, MD	3.0	2.5	1942	$3,254	$1.67	3d	4	0.97mi
5423 Saint Rita Dr Waldorf, MD	3.0	2.5	2268	$3,000	$1.32	93d	1	1.09mi
11761 Nationals Ln Unit 11761 Waldorf, MD	3.0	2.5	2160	$3,200	$1.48	73d	1	1.13mi
11761 Nationals Ln Unit 11761 Waldorf, MD	3.0	2.5	2160	$3,200	$1.48	62d	1	1.13mi
10939 Drummond Pl White Plains, MD	3.0	2.5	2192	$3,500	$1.60	73d	1	1.18mi
10933 Drummond Pl Unit 10933 White Plains, MD	3.0	3.0	2300	$3,500	$1.52	54d	1	1.18mi
10893 Drummond Pl White Plains, MD	3.0	2.5	2192	$3,250	$1.48	71d	1	1.19mi
5616 Ludlow Pl White Plains, MD	3.0	3.5	1871	$3,050	$1.63	3d	1	1.21mi
5527 Aberdeen Pl White Plains, MD	3.0	4.0	1880	$3,000	$1.60	62d	1	1.30mi
5527 Aberdeen Pl White Plains, MD	3.0	4.0	1880	$3,000	$1.60	48d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-07-31
   days on market $390,000 Active 104 DOM
2. 2026-07-30
   days on market $390,000 Active 102 DOM
3. 2026-07-28
   days on market $390,000 Active 101 DOM
4. 2026-07-26
   days on market $390,000 Active 99 DOM
5. 2026-07-24
   days on market $390,000 Active 97 DOM
6. 2026-07-23
   days on market $390,000 Active 96 DOM
7. 2026-07-22
   days on market $390,000 Active 95 DOM
8. 2026-07-21
   days on market $390,000 Active 94 DOM
9. 2026-07-20
   days on market $390,000 Active 93 DOM
10. 2026-07-18
    days on market $390,000 Active 91 DOM
11. 2026-07-18
    days on market $390,000 Active 90 DOM
12. 2026-07-16
    days on market $390,000 Active 89 DOM
13. 2026-07-15
    days on market $390,000 Active 88 DOM
14. 2026-07-14
    days on market $390,000 Active 87 DOM
15. 2026-07-13
    days on market $390,000 Active 86 DOM
16. 2026-07-13
    days on market $390,000 Active 85 DOM
17. 2026-07-11
    days on market $390,000 Active 84 DOM
18. 2026-07-10
    days on market $390,000 Active 83 DOM
19. 2026-07-09
    days on market $390,000 Active 82 DOM
20. 2026-07-07
    days on market $390,000 Active 80 DOM
21. 2026-07-06
    days on market $390,000 Active 79 DOM
22. 2026-07-06
    days on market $390,000 Active 78 DOM
23. 2026-07-05
    days on market $390,000 Active 77 DOM
24. 2026-07-03
    days on market $390,000 Active 76 DOM
25. 2026-07-02
    days on market $390,000 Active 75 DOM
26. 2026-07-01
    days on market $390,000 Active 74 DOM
27. 2026-06-30
    days on market $390,000 Active 73 DOM
28. 2026-06-29
    days on market $390,000 Active 72 DOM
29. 2026-06-28
    days on market $390,000 Active 71 DOM
30. 2026-06-27
    days on market $390,000 Active 70 DOM
31. 2026-06-26
    days on market $390,000 Active 69 DOM
32. 2026-06-24
    days on market $390,000 Active 67 DOM
33. 2026-06-22
    days on market $390,000 Active 65 DOM
34. 2026-06-21
    days on market $390,000 Active 64 DOM
35. 2026-06-18
    days on market $390,000 Active 61 DOM
36. 2026-06-17
    days on market $390,000 Active 60 DOM
37. 2026-06-16
    days on market $390,000 Active 59 DOM
38. 2026-06-15
    days on market $390,000 Active 58 DOM
39. 2026-06-13
    days on market $390,000 Active 56 DOM
40. 2026-06-10
    days on market $390,000 Active 52 DOM
41. 2026-06-08
    days on market $390,000 Active 51 DOM
42. 2026-06-07
    days on market $390,000 Active 50 DOM
43. 2026-06-04
    days on market $390,000 Active 47 DOM
44. 2026-06-03
    days on market $390,000 Active 46 DOM
45. 2026-06-02
    days on market $390,000 Active 45 DOM
46. 2026-06-01
    days on market $390,000 Active 44 DOM
47. 2026-05-31
    days on market $390,000 Active 43 DOM
48. 2026-05-15
    price $390,000 677-char remark

    Show marketing remark (677 chars)

    Showings Saturday 10am - 3pm only. Current $390k value set by the short sale lender. Modern open layout with spacious kitchen. The first level has a recreation area and half bathroom. Would be perfect for home office. Single car garage with additional storage area. Main level has LVP flooring, quartz counters, high end appliances, gorgeous cabinets, deep bowl sink, large dining area as well as a huge family room area. Deck has trex boards with plenty of space to entertain and hang out. Upper level has 2 large bedrooms with 2 in suite bathrooms. Both bedrooms are large with plenty of light and closet space. This house is practically new. Schedule a time to see it today.

49. 2026-05-14
    status Active 677-char remark

    Show marketing remark (677 chars)

    Showings Saturday 10am - 3pm only. Current $390k value set by the short sale lender. Modern open layout with spacious kitchen. The first level has a recreation area and half bathroom. Would be perfect for home office. Single car garage with additional storage area. Main level has LVP flooring, quartz counters, high end appliances, gorgeous cabinets, deep bowl sink, large dining area as well as a huge family room area. Deck has trex boards with plenty of space to entertain and hang out. Upper level has 2 large bedrooms with 2 in suite bathrooms. Both bedrooms are large with plenty of light and closet space. This house is practically new. Schedule a time to see it today.

50. 2026-03-04
    historical Active Under Contract 677-char remark

    Show marketing remark (677 chars)

    Showings Saturday 10am - 3pm only. Current $390k value set by the short sale lender. Modern open layout with spacious kitchen. The first level has a recreation area and half bathroom. Would be perfect for home office. Single car garage with additional storage area. Main level has LVP flooring, quartz counters, high end appliances, gorgeous cabinets, deep bowl sink, large dining area as well as a huge family room area. Deck has trex boards with plenty of space to entertain and hang out. Upper level has 2 large bedrooms with 2 in suite bathrooms. Both bedrooms are large with plenty of light and closet space. This house is practically new. Schedule a time to see it today.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,984 · $582/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,984 · $582/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,684
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,846
• − Property taxes: −$6,984
• − Insurance: −$1,950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,095
• − Management: −$3,095
• − HOA: −$1,056
• − Depreciation: −$11,345
• Taxable loss: −$10,687
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,565
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,407/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This townhouse is in good condition with modern amenities and a good layout. It is ready for move-in and would be a great investment.

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping and exterior paint — improves curb appeal and enhances the home's appearance ↑
• Resale new flooring in bedrooms — enhances the living space and adds value ↑
• Resale new paint in bedrooms — enhances the living space and adds value ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 36/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Mary H. Matula Elementary School F MD #393/860 Nat'l #34,688/41,679 Middle Milton M. Somers Middle School F MD #97/225 Nat'l #10,204/14,009 High La Plata High School B- MD #62/222 Nat'l #3,176/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Charles County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400270
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $90,389
• Composite: 22.54/100
• National rank: #8087
• State rank: #14 of 24 in MD

B Composite livability gradescore 72/100

Livability — Waldorf

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #141
• US rank: #6083

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime D- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Waldorf, MD
• County: Charles County · 176,616 people
• City population: 103,527
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 16,407
• Household income: $141,959
• Rent vs Own: 12.8% rent · 87.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 14% of renters

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Population outlook (Charles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 176,616 people
• By 2030: 186,471 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 206,472 · +16.9%
• By 2050: 224,883 · +27.3%
• By 2075: 272,101 · +54.1%
• By 2100: 303,564 · +71.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 61% White 23% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Charles

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+40.7) · D 69.2% · R 28.5% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +15.2pp toward D · 2008: 25.5pp · 2024: 40.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+40.7 2020: D+40.9 2016: D+30.2 2012: D+31.3 2008: D+25.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.63%
• Current HPI: 226.972
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

-4.9% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $390,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-14 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-04 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $360,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-07 Listed $375,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-06 Coming Soon $375,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-10-28 Sold (Public Records) $410,000 Public Records
• 2024-10-01 Sold (MLS) $410,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-09-05 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-09-02 Listed $409,900 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,984 · +5.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.