4305 Riverbend Blvd Unit M · Haines City, FL 33844

$263,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,824 sqft · SingleFamily · 4 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $145/sqft · 21% below area Est $336k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.0/30.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This new single-story home is a modern take on a classic design. Down the foyer is a spacious and open-plan family room which has direct access to the cozy dining room, well-equipped kitchen and attached patio, perfect for everyday living. In a private corner is the owner's suite with a convenient adjoining bathroom, while on the opposite side of the home are three secondary bedrooms to offer restful retreats.

Key facts

• Adjoining bathroom
• Owner's suite
• Attached patio

Tags

• OPEN-PLAN FAMILY ROOM
• WELL-EQUIPPED KITCHEN
• ATTACHED PATIO
• OWNER'S SUITE
• ADJOINING BATHROOM
• THREE SECONDARY BEDROOMS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $264k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $32 ($386/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $235k (11.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $235k (11.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.5% in Haines City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#285 in FL, #4,575 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Eastside Elementary School (math 33% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,854 of 2,144 statewide, top 87%, 615 students, 66% FRL); Shelley S. Boone Middle School (math 25% / reading 25%, grade F, #517 of 571 statewide, top 91%, 1,403 students, 52% FRL); Haines City Senior High School (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #544 of 667 statewide, top 82%, 2,700 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools at 59% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 26% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 1941 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 74d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $235,003 (11.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.52%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $336,169
• List price: $263,990
• Delta: -21.47%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4425 Riverbend Blvd	0.31mi	4/2.0	1,850 (+1%)	0mo	$349,999	$189	83
3594 Roden Rd	0.47mi	4/2.0	1,828 (+0%)	1mo	$342,000	$187	77
5393 Willow Crk	0.24mi	4/2.0	1,665 (-9%)	0mo	$316,900	$190	74
3553 Roden Rd	0.55mi	4/2.0	1,828 (+0%)	1mo	$348,990	$191	73
3529 Roden Rd	0.61mi	4/2.0	1,828 (+0%)	0mo	$344,990	$189	71
4426 Riverbend Blvd	0.28mi	4/2.5	2,039 (+12%)	0mo	$343,239	$168	65
4422 Riverbend Blvd	0.27mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,615 (-12%)	0mo	$298,426	$185	63
3917 Amers Loop	0.62mi	4/2.0	1,733 (-5%)	1mo	$304,877	$176	62
4457 Riverbend Blvd	0.37mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,615 (-12%)	0mo	$297,999	$185	58
3893 Amers Loop	0.63mi	4/2.0	1,985 (+9%)	1mo	$318,544	$160	55
3873 Amers Loop	0.65mi	4/2.0	1,985 (+9%)	0mo	$317,083	$160	55
3542 Roden Rd	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,672 (-8%)	1mo	$320,990	$192	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-44,967
• Equity at exit: $39,362

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-53,272
• Equity at exit: $22,825

Cash invested: $73,917 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 153 active · 108 under contract
• Months of supply: 22.4 mo (4%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $317,990 ($177/sqft)
• Median days on market: 69 d
• This list price: 3% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +4.3% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 33844

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 1941
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,350 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,384
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$330 /mo · $3,960/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$494
• Net cashflow: $32

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,309

Max offer price $263,990

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $215	-5% $123	+0% $32	+5% $-59	+10% $-150
Rent	-10% $-154	-5% $-61	+0% $32	+5% $125	+10% $218
Rate	-1.0pp $165	-0.5pp $99	base $32	+0.5pp $-36	+1.0pp $-106

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,998
• Closing costs: $7,920
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4317 Riverbend Blvd Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	2109	$2,100	$1.00	7d	1	0.05mi
5153 Green Belt Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1824	$2,300	$1.26	110d	1	0.10mi
5157 Green Belt Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	3.0	2109	$2,900	$1.38	99d	1	0.11mi
5161 Green Belt Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	2500	$2,100	$0.84	119d	1	0.11mi
4746 Katrina Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1818	$2,095	$1.15	119d	1	0.12mi
5514 Clove Row Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1288	$2,200	$1.71	65d	1	0.15mi
4757 Katrina Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	2451	$2,050	$0.84	119d	1	0.16mi
5177 Green Belt Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	3.0	2109	$2,448	$1.16	0d	1	0.16mi
5177 Green Belt Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	3.0	2109	$2,920	$1.38	98d	1	0.16mi
5009 Katrina Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1840	$2,100	$1.14	9d	1	0.17mi
4770 Katrina Dr Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	2109	$2,000	$0.95	119d	1	0.18mi
5193 Green Belt Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1824	$2,099	$1.15	119d	1	0.19mi
914 Princess Sabal Pt Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1677	$1,775	$1.06	73d	1	0.23mi
4813 Katrina Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	2000	$2,000	$1.00	119d	1	0.26mi
5157 Green Belt Dr Unit A Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	2109	$1,990	$0.94	65d	1	0.28mi
1433 Princess Tree Ct Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$1,999	$1.09	119d	1	0.35mi
1433 Princess Tree Ct Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$2,100	$1.15	9d	1	0.35mi
1433 Princess Tree Ct Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1867	$2,050	$1.10	73d	1	0.35mi
2526 Aveeno Ave Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1400	$2,100	$1.50	9d	1	0.52mi
2203 Pigeon Plum Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	3.0	1887	$2,190	$1.16	106d	1	0.54mi
4226 Hillock Blvd Haines City, FL	3.0	2.5	1548	$1,950	$1.26	7d	1	0.55mi
339 Towns Cir Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1282	$1,795	$1.40	73d	1	0.56mi
4034 Old Mill Rd Haines City, FL	5.0	2.5	2326	$2,400	$1.03	99d	1	0.56mi
351 Towns Cir Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1282	$1,900	$1.48	9d	1	0.56mi
314 Lawson Ave Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	2160	$2,000	$0.93	65d	1	0.57mi
318 Lawson Ave Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1605	$2,200	$1.37	0d	1	0.57mi
4107 Longleaf St Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	2136	$2,000	$0.94	0d	1	0.58mi
4045 Old Mill Rd Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,150	$1.15	9d	1	0.58mi
501 Sea Turtle Ln Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1835	$2,000	$1.09	9d	1	0.58mi
1186 Tupelo Trl Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	1767	$2,200	$1.25	73d	1	0.59mi
3840 King Hill Dr Haines City, FL	3.0	2.5	1542	$1,950	$1.26	7d	1	0.59mi
3754 King Hill Dr Haines City, FL	3.0	2.5	1720	$1,800	$1.05	119d	1	0.60mi
4156 Hummock Pl Haines City, FL	3.0	2.5	1548	$1,850	$1.20	119d	1	0.60mi
2235 Pigeon Plum Dr Haines City, FL	3.0	2.5	1983	$2,200	$1.11	9d	1	0.60mi
3910 Amers Loop Haines City, FL	5.0	2.5	2112	$2,600	$1.23	119d	1	0.60mi
3898 Amers Loop Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,150	$1.15	119d	1	0.61mi
1202 Tupelo Trl Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,175	$1.36	9d	1	0.62mi
225 Lawson Ave Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	2080	$2,200	$1.06	9d	1	0.62mi
3841 Amers Loop Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1733	$2,150	$1.24	2d	1	0.63mi
3874 Amers Loop Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,130	$1.14	73d	1	0.63mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-07
   days on market $263,990 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-05
   remarks 413-char remark
3. 2026-06-05
   listed $263,990 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,788
• − Property taxes: −$3,960
• − Insurance: −$1,320
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,256
• − Management: −$2,256
• − Depreciation: −$7,680
• Taxable loss: −$4,059
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$974
• After-tax cash flow: $1,360/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $9,120–$27,360 screening

This modern single-story home is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It has a good foundation, structure, and HVAC system. The home is move-in ready with minor maintenance items to address. The highest-ROI updates would be to paint the exterior trim and replace the kitchen appliances to enhance curb appeal and attract more buyers.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value. ↑
• Resale Replace kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers. ↑
• Both Install smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more convenient and energy-efficient. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 26/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Eastside Elementary School F FL #1,854/2,144 Nat'l #26,096/41,679 Middle Shelley S. Boone Middle School F FL #517/571 Nat'l #10,338/14,009 High Haines City Senior High School F FL #544/667 Nat'l #13,673/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 74/100

Livability — Haines City

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #285
• US rank: #4575

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Haines City, FL
• County: Polk County · 752,975 people
• City population: 51,255
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 51,255
• Household income: $63,650
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 9% of renters

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Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 31% Black 18% Two or more races 12% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 19% Cuban 1% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 4% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 39% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 0%

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Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.94%
• Current HPI: 291.0798
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.16%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B