113872 S 4286 Rd · Duchess Landing, OK 74455

$105,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,596 sqft · Manufactured public records · 70 Days on market

Built 1973 1.01 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.3/30.0
• Appreciation +8.3/10.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.1/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great Lake Place in the Blue Water Area of the Lake! 2 Bed 1 1/2 Bath on 1 Acre in Duchess Creek Acres. Home has open Kit/Liv, nice sunroom and large utility room. Outside features a double carport and covered deck to enjoy the outdoors at the lake!

Key facts

• Large sunroom
• Large front yard
• Space to park boats

Tags

• LAKE HOME
• LARGE SUNROOM
• PLENTY OF CABINET SPACE
• LARGE UTILITY ROOM
• LARGE FRONT YARD
• SPACE TO PARK BOATS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Occupied; Living area reported as 1,596 (builder source); Directions: In Porum turn left by the Sinco, go right around the storage building and then property is on the left.
• Financial info: Loan qualification possible (buyer may qualify)
• HOA & community: No mandatory association dues

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel parking; RV parking
• Utilities: Electricity available; Natural gas available; Propane available; Public water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single family residence; One-level property
• Construction: Manufactured construction; Composition roof; Post-tension foundation; Built as move-to-site (installed on lot)
• Exterior features: Open deck; Interior lot; Below-ground storm shelter; Move-to-site manufactured home

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in gas range; Built-in gas oven; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bath; 1 half bath
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Smoke alarm
• Laundry & utility: Septic tank (onsite wastewater system)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $192 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $99k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 43/100 on livability (#711 in OK) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Checotah (town): math 32% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #72 of 270 in OK (top 27%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Checotah Intermediate Es (math 55% / reading 39%, grade D-, #52 of 845 statewide, top 7%, 306 students, 0% FRL); Checotah Hs (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #348 of 447 statewide, top 79%, 394 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 72% district-wide (72 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 129 active listings in the ZIP; 20 units permitted in McIntosh County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($726 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (6.6% local appreciation)).
• McIntosh County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($99k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $57k; list at $105k implies a 84% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $98,700 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.82%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.57% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.57×
• Total profit: $46,060
• Equity at exit: $69,815

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.25×
• Total profit: $125,040
• Equity at exit: $130,031

Cash invested: $29,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Oklahoma: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 74455

• Home prices YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 129
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,057 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax from tax record: −$49 /mo · $588/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$222
• Net cashflow: $192

Break-even live

Break-even rent $814

Max offer price $105,000

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,250
• Closing costs: $3,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-07
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-12
   status Active
3. 2026-04-12
   price $105,000
4. 2026-03-22
   status Pending
5. 2026-02-04
   listed $115,000 Active
6. 2025-11-12
   historical
7. 2025-10-31
   price $128,000
8. 2025-10-07
   price $129,500
9. 2025-05-12
   listed $135,000 Active
10. 2018-08-15
    soldstatus $57,000 249-char remark

    Show marketing remark (249 chars)

    Great Lake Place in the Blue Water Area of the Lake! 2 Bed 1 1/2 Bath on 1 Acre in Duchess Creek Acres. Home has open Kit/Liv, nice sunroom and large utility room. Outside features a double carport and covered deck to enjoy the outdoors at the lake!

11. 2018-05-25
    listed $65,000 249-char remark

    Show marketing remark (249 chars)

    Great Lake Place in the Blue Water Area of the Lake! 2 Bed 1 1/2 Bath on 1 Acre in Duchess Creek Acres. Home has open Kit/Liv, nice sunroom and large utility room. Outside features a double carport and covered deck to enjoy the outdoors at the lake!

12. 2004-10-01
    soldstatus $34,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OK · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $588 · $49/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $945 · $79/mo
• Expected delta: +$357/yr (+$30/mo · 60.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,682
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,882
• − Property taxes: −$588
• − Insurance: −$525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,015
• − Management: −$1,015
• − Depreciation: −$3,055
• Taxable income: $604
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$145
• After-tax cash flow: $2,154/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Checotah
• NCES district ID: 4007350
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $34,331
• Composite: 24.73/100
• National rank: #7607
• State rank: #72 of 270 in OK

Livability — Duchess Landing

• Score: 43/100
• State rank: #711
• US rank: #26918

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 2,717
• Population (ZIP): 2,717

Population outlook (McIntosh County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 18,935 people
• By 2030: 18,272 · -3.5%
• By 2040: 16,905 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 15,771 · -16.7%
• By 2075: 14,097 · -25.6%
• By 2100: 12,572 · -33.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Native American 15% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · McIntosh

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.7) · D 22.9% · R 75.7% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.5pp toward R · 2008: -19.3pp · 2024: -52.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.7 2020: R+49.7 2016: R+42.5 2012: R+23.8 2008: R+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.57%
• Current HPI: 288.3386
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OK)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	3	$48B

Price history

+208.8% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Pending — MLSOK
• 2026-04-12 Relisted — MLSOK
• 2026-04-12 Price Changed $105,000 MLSOK
• 2026-03-22 Pending — MLSOK
• 2026-02-04 Listed $115,000 MLSOK
• 2025-11-12 Listing Removed — MLSOK
• 2025-10-31 Price Changed $128,000 MLSOK
• 2025-10-07 Price Changed $129,500 MLSOK
• 2025-05-12 Listed $135,000 MLSOK
• 2018-08-15 Sold (MLS) $57,000 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2018-05-25 Listed $65,000 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2004-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $34,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $588 · +7.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.