105 Butler Blvd · Ocean Gate, NJ 08721

$225,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 952 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1955 10,018 sqft lot Est $413k · 46% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.5/30.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Cash only, Interior of home suffered significant fire/water damage. Listing agent is owner of property. Interior pictures available upon request. Interior access scheduled through listing agent. All offers considered.

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot
• Built 1955
• Listed 12 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA includes trash

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Fee simple ownership
• Exterior features: Shingle roof

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Laminate; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Family room; No basement / crawl space

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $48 ($580/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $214k (5.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $214k (5.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.0% in Ocean Gate — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#439 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime B+, housing B+, health & safety B+; Watch: schools C-, employment C-, amenities F.
• Central Regional School District (suburban): math 17% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #357 of 472 in NJ (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 175 active listings in the ZIP; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 7 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $102k; list at $225k implies a 121% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $213,790 (5.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.92%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $413,168
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
210 Fernwood Dr	0.51mi	3/1.0 (+1)	960 (+1%)	7mo	$580	$1	60
615 Riverside Dr	0.72mi	2/1.0	922 (-3%)	6mo	$400,000	$434	52
519 Bay Blvd	0.59mi	2/1.0	1,050 (+10%)	9mo	$371,000	$353	44
227 Butler Blvd	0.52mi	2/1.0	828 (-13%)	10mo	$500,000	$604	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-33,295
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-24,683
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08721

• Active inventory: 175
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,138 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$367 /mo · $4,403/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$449
• Net cashflow: $48

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,077

Max offer price $225,000

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $225,000 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $225,000 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $225,000 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $225,000 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $225,000 Active 8 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $225,000 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $225,000 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $225,000 Active 3 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   remarks 217-char remark
10. 2026-06-07
    listed $225,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,403 · $367/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,003 · $417/mo
• Expected delta: +$600/yr (+$50/mo · 13.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 55% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,655
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$4,403
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,052
• − Management: −$2,052
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$3,127
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$750
• After-tax cash flow: $1,331/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Central Regional School District
• NCES district ID: 3402910
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $44,676
• Composite: 25.59/100
• National rank: #7422
• State rank: #357 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Ocean Gate

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #439
• US rank: #16152

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment C- Housing B+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 1,768
• Population (ZIP): 22,464

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Asian 4% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Scotch-Irish 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 2% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -320.09%
• Current HPI: 346.8393
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+125.2% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $225,000 MOMLS
• 2025-11-20 Rental Removed $2,600 MOMLS
• 2025-11-08 Price Changed $2,600 MOMLS
• 2025-11-02 Listed for Rent $2,700 MOMLS
• 2025-11-02 Rental Removed $2,700 Avail
• 2025-10-20 Price Changed $2,700 Avail
• 2025-10-08 Price Changed $2,800 Avail
• 2025-10-03 Listed for Rent $2,900 Avail
• 2022-02-13 Delisted — MOMLS
• 2022-02-13 Listed $299,900 MOMLS
• 2022-01-31 Delisted — MOMLS
• 2022-01-29 Listed $299,900 MOMLS
• 2022-01-22 Coming Soon — MOMLS
• 2018-12-31 Sold (MLS) $102,000 MOMLS
• 2018-12-17 Pending — MOMLS
• 2018-12-05 Contingent — MOMLS
• 2018-11-30 Relisted — MOMLS
• 2018-11-27 Pending — MOMLS
• 2018-11-27 Contingent — MOMLS
• 2018-11-11 Price Changed $99,900 MOMLS
• 2018-11-06 Price Changed $99,899 MOMLS
• 2018-11-05 Listed $99,900 MOMLS

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,403 · +7.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.