528 S Smallwood St · Baltimore, MD 21223

$70,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,092 sqft · Townhouse public records · 59 Days on market

Built 1920 $64/sqft · 86% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Townhouse for Sale, Basement – Baltimore, MD Renovated townhouse located on S. Smallwood St, Baltimore, MD 21223.

Key facts

• Renovated townhouse
• Basement
• Built 1920

Tags

• RENOVATED TOWNHOUSE
• BASEMENT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $791 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $68k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.9% vs local median 6.0% in Baltimore — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in MD, #3,396 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Baltimore City Public Schools (urban): math 7% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #24 of 24 in MD (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.5%/yr); 422 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,273 units permitted in Baltimore city in 2024 (1,104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($46k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.5% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $67,900 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 48.42%
• DSCR: 3.15
• GRM: 3.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $37,644
• List price: $70,000
• Delta: 85.95%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2402 Wilkens Ave	0.17mi	2/1.0	1,092 (0%)	0mo	$45,000	$41	92
2008 Wilkens Ave	0.16mi	2/1.5	1,100 (+1%)	4mo	$145,000	$132	87
2408 Wilkens Ave	0.18mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,092 (0%)	2mo	$99,900	$91	81
1834 Wilkens Ave	0.29mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,200 (+10%)	3mo	$36,000	$30	62
43 Wheeler Ave N	0.56mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,144 (+5%)	3mo	$34,000	$30	58
1404 Lemmon St	0.68mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,100 (+1%)	1mo	$189,000	$172	57
2141 Vine St	0.59mi	2/1.0	1,200 (+10%)	3mo	$20,000	$17	54
1910 W Fayette St	0.61mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,020 (-7%)	4mo	$39,000	$38	52
1607 Lemmon St	0.54mi	1/1.0 (-1)	974 (-11%)	1mo	$20,000	$21	51
2544 W Fairmount Ave	0.62mi	2/1.5	1,204 (+10%)	2mo	$55,000	$46	50
1906 W Fairmount Ave	0.57mi	2/3.5	1,200 (+10%)	3mo	$134,900	$112	45
2576 W Baltimore St W	0.62mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (+10%)	2mo	$152,000	$127	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.51% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 50.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.37×
• Total profit: $46,538
• Equity at exit: $10,437

10-year hold

• IRR: 58.1%
• Equity multiple: 8.10×
• Total profit: $139,207
• Equity at exit: $6,052

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Baltimore: 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+58

Just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21223

• Rents YoY: 7.5%
• Active inventory: 422
• Price-to-rent: 3.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,581 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$62 /mo · $744/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$332
• Net cashflow: $791

Break-even live

Break-even rent $580

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 45%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
514 S Payson St Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1264	$1,750	$1.38	43d	1	0.18mi
307 S Smallwood St Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.5	1400	$1,350	$0.96	43d	1	0.20mi
2540 Frederick Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1075	$1,400	$1.30	23d	1	0.34mi
332 S Franklintown Rd Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	776	$795	$1.02	23d	1	0.39mi
2671 Saint Benedict St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1144	$1,325	$1.16	43d	1	0.40mi
110 S Catherine St Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1330	$1,500	$1.13	43d	1	0.40mi
2657 Lehman St Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1056	$1,000	$0.95	43d	1	0.40mi
2225 W Baltimore St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.5	1200	$1,600	$1.33	23d	1	0.47mi
2232 W Baltimore St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1250	$1,875	$1.50	23d	1	0.50mi
2738 Wilkens Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1183	$1,500	$1.27	43d	1	0.52mi
2516 Hollins St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,700	$1.55	43d	1	0.52mi
2537 Hollins St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,450	$1.21	23d	1	0.52mi
2737 Wilkens Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1232	$1,650	$1.34	4d	1	0.52mi
1918 W Baltimore St Baltimore, MD	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	857	$1,375	$1.60	43d	1	0.54mi
1912 W Baltimore St Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.5	1200	$2,100	$1.75	23d	1	0.54mi
62 N Gorman Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1100	$2,500	$2.27	17d	1	0.58mi
1635 Frederick Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1224	$1,850	$1.51	43d	1	0.61mi
1839 W Fayette St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1426	$1,675	$1.17	23d	1	0.62mi
1601 Frederick Ave Unit 3 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1050	$1,050	$1.00	4d	1	0.67mi
305 S Calhoun St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	21d	1	0.68mi
1324 W Lombard St Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,500	$1.36	23d	1	0.76mi
1324 W Lombard St Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,450	$1.32	43d	1	0.76mi
2012 W Saratoga St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,700	$1.31	23d	1	0.77mi
1262 Glyndon Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	3.0	1258	$1,850	$1.47	23d	1	0.77mi
1303 James St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.5	1160	$1,350	$1.16	23d	1	0.78mi
1315 Hollins St Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1096	$1,860	$1.70	4d	1	0.79mi
1315 Hollins St Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1096	$1,950	$1.78	12d	1	0.79mi
1846 W Saratoga St Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1250	$1,300	$1.04	43d	1	0.80mi
1432 Carroll St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.5	912	$1,900	$2.08	43d	1	0.80mi
1101 S Carey St Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	1400	$1,200	$0.86	21d	1	0.80mi
28 N Norris St Baltimore, MD	1.0	2.0	700	$1,450	$2.07	43d	1	0.81mi
1127 S Carey St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.5	1340	$1,900	$1.42	4d	1	0.83mi
10 S Carey St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1140	$1,550	$1.36	23d	1	0.84mi
104 S Carrollton Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	4.0	1232	$2,400	$1.95	4d	1	0.85mi
1253 Sargeant St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.5	1200	$1,695	$1.41	23d	1	0.85mi
1215 James St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	960	$1,500	$1.56	43d	1	0.85mi
1259 Washington Blvd Baltimore, MD	3.0	3.0	1232	$2,999	$2.43	4d	1	0.86mi
1519 Penrose Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,875	$1.56	43d	1	0.86mi
1243 Washington Blvd Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1148	$1,950	$1.70	43d	1	0.87mi
1115 W Lombard St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1468	$2,100	$1.43	43d	1	0.90mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $70,000 Active 59 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $70,000 Active 58 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $70,000 Active 57 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $70,000 Active 56 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $70,000 Active 54 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $70,000 Active 50 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $70,000 Active 49 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $70,000 Active 48 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $70,000 Active 45 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $70,000 Active 44 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $70,000 Active 43 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $70,000 Active 42 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $70,000 Active 41 DOM
14. 2026-04-16
    listed $70,000 Active 119-char remark

    Show marketing remark (119 chars)

    Townhouse for Sale, Basement – Baltimore, MD Renovated townhouse located on S. Smallwood St, Baltimore, MD 21223.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $744 · $62/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $753 · $63/mo
• Expected delta: +$10/yr (+$1/mo · 1.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,974
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$744
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,518
• − Management: −$1,518
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $8,887
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,133
• After-tax cash flow: $7,358/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore City Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400090
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,108
• Composite: 10.08/100
• National rank: #9805
• State rank: #24 of 24 in MD

Livability — Baltimore

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3396

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baltimore, MD
• County: Baltimore City · 558,601 people
• City population: 588,727
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 19,572
• Household income: $45,840
• Rent vs Own: 68.0% rent · 32.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1755.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 624,249 people
• By 2030: 621,541 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 609,756 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 597,249 · -4.3%
• By 2075: 552,236 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 513,934 · -17.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 72% White 16% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+73.0) · D 85.2% · R 12.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: 75.5pp · 2024: 73.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+73.0 2020: D+76.6 2016: D+74.6 2012: D+76.4 2008: D+75.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -97.99%
• Current HPI: 140.5836
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.51%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Listed $70,000 Fizber.com

Property tax history

+0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $744 · +15.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.