331 Chestnuthill Dr · Lake, PA 18436

$229,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,628 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 80 Days on market

Built 1984 0.37 ac lot $141/sqft · 30% below area Est $297k · 22% under $194/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.3/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

The perfect getaway chalet in The Hideout, an amenity-filled community in the Northern Poconos, just two hours from the NY, NJ, and Philadelphia areas. Backing to a greenbelt, this home offers added privacy and a peaceful wooded setting. The main level features an open living area with a cozy woodstove and brick backdrop, creating that classic Pocono chalet feel. A loft overlooking the living room adds extra space and can easily serve as an additional sleeping area. Enjoy the outdoors from the screened-in porch or rear deck, perfect for relaxing and taking in the natural surroundings. The finished lower level with knotty pine provides additional living space, including an extra room currently being used as a bedroom (window does not provide proper egress), along with a large utility room with laundry and a separate storage area. A great opportunity for a weekend escape or year-round living in one of the Poconos' most sought-after communities.

Key facts

• 0.37 acre lot
• Community pool
• Built 1984

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-83 ($-999/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $215k (6.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $207k (9.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $207k (9.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Western Wayne SD (rural): math 39% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #165 of 539 in PA (top 31%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Evergreen El Sch (math 42% / reading 68%, grade C, #498 of 1,518 statewide, top 33%, 506 students, 64% FRL); Western Wayne Ms (math 21% / reading 61%, grade F, #243 of 512 statewide, top 48%, 411 students, 57% FRL); Western Wayne Hs (math 77% / reading 24%, grade D+, #125 of 437 statewide, top 30%, 545 students, 49% FRL) — zoned schools average 56% FRL vs 41% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 340 active listings in the ZIP; 177 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $25k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $23k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $64k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $128k; list at $230k implies a 80% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $207,196 (9.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.55%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $296,543
• List price: $229,900
• Delta: -22.47%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
123 N Fairway Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,762 (+8%)	1mo	$257,000	$146	70
14 Par Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,691 (+4%)	2mo	$299,000	$177	70
59 W Shore Dr	0.26mi	2/2.0	1,486 (-9%)	9mo	$529,000	$356	66
176 N Fairway Dr	0.25mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,787 (+10%)	6mo	$298,000	$167	60
288 S Fairway Dr Lot 4101	0.36mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,800 (+11%)	6mo	$330,000	$183	55
46 Wedge Dr	0.55mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,572 (-3%)	10mo	$359,900	$229	54
47 S Fairway Dr	0.74mi	2/2.0	1,569 (-4%)	11mo	$215,000	$137	50
16 Par Ct	0.51mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,444 (-11%)	9mo	$250,000	$173	45
72 N Fairway Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,500 (-8%)	21mo	$330,000	$220	43
174 N Fairway Dr	0.24mi	2/1.0	1,391 (-15%)	23mo	$238,000	$171	41
97 Ridgeview Dr	0.62mi	2/2.0	1,852 (+14%)	9mo	$258,000	$139	41
44 Robin Ln	0.50mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,800 (+11%)	19mo	$222,000	$123	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.86×
• Total profit: $120,019
• Equity at exit: $207,112

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.56×
• Total profit: $357,829
• Equity at exit: $446,645

Cash invested: $64,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18436

• Home prices YoY: 16.9%
• Active inventory: 340
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,072 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$225 /mo · $2,696/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$194
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$435
• Net cashflow: $-83

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,177

Max offer price $215,193

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $47	-5% $-18	+0% $-83	+5% $-148	+10% $-213
Rent	-10% $-247	-5% $-165	+0% $-83	+5% $-1	+10% $80
Rate	-1.0pp $33	-0.5pp $-25	base $-83	+0.5pp $-143	+1.0pp $-203

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,475
• Closing costs: $6,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $194 · $2,328/yr

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $229,900 Active 80 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $229,900 Active 77 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $229,900 Active 76 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $229,900 Active 75 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $229,900 Active 74 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $229,900 Active 72 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $229,900 Active 71 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $229,900 Active 69 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $229,900 Active 68 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $229,900 Active 67 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $229,900 Active 66 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $229,900 Active 62 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $229,900 Active 61 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $229,900 Active 60 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $229,900 Active 59 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $229,900 Active 58 DOM
17. 2026-05-14
    price $229,900 956-char remark

    Show marketing remark (956 chars)

    The perfect getaway chalet in The Hideout, an amenity-filled community in the Northern Poconos, just two hours from the NY, NJ, and Philadelphia areas. Backing to a greenbelt, this home offers added privacy and a peaceful wooded setting. The main level features an open living area with a cozy woodstove and brick backdrop, creating that classic Pocono chalet feel. A loft overlooking the living room adds extra space and can easily serve as an additional sleeping area. Enjoy the outdoors from the screened-in porch or rear deck, perfect for relaxing and taking in the natural surroundings. The finished lower level with knotty pine provides additional living space, including an extra room currently being used as a bedroom (window does not provide proper egress), along with a large utility room with laundry and a separate storage area. A great opportunity for a weekend escape or year-round living in one of the Poconos' most sought-after communities.

18. 2026-04-02
    listed $239,900 Active 956-char remark

    Show marketing remark (956 chars)

    The perfect getaway chalet in The Hideout, an amenity-filled community in the Northern Poconos, just two hours from the NY, NJ, and Philadelphia areas. Backing to a greenbelt, this home offers added privacy and a peaceful wooded setting. The main level features an open living area with a cozy woodstove and brick backdrop, creating that classic Pocono chalet feel. A loft overlooking the living room adds extra space and can easily serve as an additional sleeping area. Enjoy the outdoors from the screened-in porch or rear deck, perfect for relaxing and taking in the natural surroundings. The finished lower level with knotty pine provides additional living space, including an extra room currently being used as a bedroom (window does not provide proper egress), along with a large utility room with laundry and a separate storage area. A great opportunity for a weekend escape or year-round living in one of the Poconos' most sought-after communities.

19. 2006-03-07
    soldstatus $128,000
20. 2003-04-16
    soldstatus $81,450
21. 2002-07-25
    soldstatus $73,670
22. 1986-07-12
    soldstatus $60,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,696 · $225/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,164 · $264/mo
• Expected delta: +$468/yr (+$39/mo · 17.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,864
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,878
• − Property taxes: −$2,696
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,989
• − Management: −$1,989
• − HOA: −$2,328
• − Depreciation: −$6,688
• Taxable loss: −$4,854
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,165
• After-tax cash flow: $166/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Western Wayne SD
• NCES district ID: 4226070
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,358
• Composite: 43.65/100
• National rank: #2964
• State rank: #165 of 539 in PA

Livability — Lake

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: The Hideout, PA
• Population (ZIP): 13,225

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 47,924 people
• By 2030: 46,191 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 42,815 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 39,873 · -16.8%
• By 2075: 34,556 · -27.9%
• By 2100: 28,358 · -40.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Scotch-Irish 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4%
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.1) · D 31.1% · R 68.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.8pp toward R · 2008: -12.3pp · 2024: -37.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.1 2020: R+33.6 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+12.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 47.95%
• Current HPI: 331.9645
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+283.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $229,900 PWMLS
• 2026-04-02 Listed $239,900 PWMLS
• 2006-03-07 Sold (Public Records) $128,000 Public Records
• 2003-04-16 Sold (Public Records) $81,450 Public Records
• 2002-07-25 Sold (Public Records) $73,670 Public Records
• 1986-07-12 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,696 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.