374 Lucia Way · Plum Grove, TX 77327

$118,990

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 771 sqft · SingleFamily · 42 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $10/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.2/30.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in the back of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. The versatile secondary bedroom is ideal for household members and overnight guests or can easily transform into an office, depending on the homeowner's needs.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• En-suite bathroom

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• VERSATILE SECONDARY BEDROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Part of Houston El Norte Prop Assoc.; Association fee $120 annually

Exterior

• Utilities: Has heating and cooling
• Home design: Residential property; Slab foundation; Composition roof; One-story (entry level: first floor); New construction (year built 2026)
• Construction: Cement siding construction
• Exterior features: Located in a subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first floor
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor; Additional bedroom on the first floor
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Five total rooms; Under construction (new construction)

🏗️ New construction. The $118,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $128,958.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $119k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $234 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $119k).
• Recommended offer: $115k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 5.0% in Plum Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,206 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Cleveland ISD (town): math 24% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #723 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Pine Burr El (691 students, 97% FRL); Santa Fe Middle (915 students, 99% FRL); Cleveland H S (math 30% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,077 of 1,632 statewide, top 66%, 3,310 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 96% FRL vs 71% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 1574 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $891 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($115k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $21k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $115,420 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.77%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $128,958
• List price: $118,990
• Delta: -7.73%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 16 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-4,514
• Equity at exit: $19,228

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.59×
• Total profit: $21,477
• Equity at exit: $11,150

Cash invested: $36,108 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77327

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 1574
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,437 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$161 /mo · $1,934/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$10
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$302
• Net cashflow: $234

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,141

Max offer price $128,958

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,239
• Closing costs: $3,869
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1192 Road 57071 Cleveland, TX	2.0	2.0	1000	$950	$0.95	1d	1	0.63mi
203 Road 5248 Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	910	$1,680	$1.85	15d	1	0.98mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $10 · $120/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $118,990 Active 42 DOM

   Show marketing remark (440 chars)

   This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in the back of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. The versatile secondary bedroom is ideal for household members and overnight guests or can easily transform into an office, depending on the homeowner's needs.

2. 2026-06-17
   price $118,990 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $135,540 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $135,540 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $135,540 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $135,540 Active 37 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $135,540 Active 33 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $135,540 Active 32 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $135,540 Active 31 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $135,540 Active 28 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $135,540 Active 27 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $135,540 Active 26 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $135,540 Active 25 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $135,540 Active 24 DOM
15. 2026-05-07
    listed $139,990 Active 440-char remark

    Show marketing remark (440 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in the back of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. The versatile secondary bedroom is ideal for household members and overnight guests or can easily transform into an office, depending on the homeowner's needs.

16. 2026-05-07
    listed $139,990 Active 576-char remark

    Show marketing remark (440 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in the back of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. The versatile secondary bedroom is ideal for household members and overnight guests or can easily transform into an office, depending on the homeowner's needs.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,241
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,224
• − Property taxes: −$1,934
• − Insurance: −$645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,379
• − Management: −$1,379
• − HOA: −$120
• − Depreciation: −$3,751
• Taxable income: $809
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$194
• After-tax cash flow: $2,612/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home in the Santa Fe Village Community is in good condition with a good exterior and interior. It has a spacious floor plan and a well-maintained landscaping. The home is ready for minor cosmetic upgrades to enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants.
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the home more appealing to potential buyers.
• Resale Upgrading the bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures can enhance the bathroom's appeal and attract more buyers.
• Resale Upgrading the flooring — Updated flooring can make the home more appealing and attract more buyers.
• Both Upgrading the HVAC system — A new HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, attracting both buyers and tenants.
• Both Upgrading the windows — New windows can improve energy efficiency and enhance the home's curb appeal.
• Both Upgrading the electrical and plumbing systems — Modernized systems can improve the home's functionality and attract more buyers/tenants.
• Both Upgrading the landscaping and curb appeal — A well-maintained and attractive exterior can enhance the home's curb appeal and attract more buyers/tenants.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the home more appealing to potential buyers. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures can enhance the bathroom's appeal and attract more buyers. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the flooring — Updated flooring can make the home more appealing and attract more buyers. ↑
• Both Upgrading the HVAC system — A new HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, attracting both buyers and tenants. ↑
• Both Upgrading the windows — New windows can improve energy efficiency and enhance the home's curb appeal. ↑
• Both Upgrading the electrical and plumbing systems — Modernized systems can improve the home's functionality and attract more buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Upgrading the landscaping and curb appeal — A well-maintained and attractive exterior can enhance the home's curb appeal and attract more buyers/tenants. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cleveland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814370
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,173
• Composite: 20.61/100
• National rank: #8549
• State rank: #723 of 826 in TX

Livability — Plum Grove

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1206
• US rank: #21049

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 82,189 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,685
• Household income: $62,219
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 437.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 0%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.39%
• Current HPI: 224.9222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.00%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-15.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Price Changed $118,990 Zillow
• 2026-06-17 Price Changed $118,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-29 Price Changed $135,540 Zillow
• 2026-05-28 Price Changed $135,540 HARMLS
• 2026-05-07 Listed $139,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-07 Listed $139,990 HARMLS