5680 SW 153rd Place Rd · Marion Oaks, FL 34473

$239,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,331 sqft · Land · 58 Days on market

Built 2026 0.25 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under Construction. 1331 SQ FT LIVING AREA 1868 SQ FT TOTAL UNDER ROOF BEAUTIFUL BRAND-NEW Custom home on a CORNER LOT. Pictures are of a Model Home and not the actual home. Block with stucco 3 bedroom, 2 bath with attached 2 car garage. Beautiful cabinets accent a gorgeous kitchen. Appliances include Refrigerator, Range with hood and Dishwasher. Walk-in closet in Master. High Efficiency windows.

Key facts

• 0.25 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.25 acre (dimensions ~91 x 119); Builder-provided living area: 1,331 sq ft; total building area: 1,868 sq ft; Property zoned R1; Permit number CRC1333956
• HOA & community: No association indicated

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage (19 x 24)
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank sewer; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One-story; Under construction; projected completion May 11, 2026; West-facing entry
• Construction: Block and concrete construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; New construction by Zephyr Homes LLC — Model: Classic
• Exterior features: Paved road access; Other exterior features

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Split-bedroom floorplan; Programmable thermostat; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area located in garage

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $100 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $194k (19.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $194k (19.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 4.8% in Marion Oaks — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Sunrise Elementary School (math 43% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,575 of 2,144 statewide, top 74%, 1,017 students, 73% FRL); Horizon Academy At Marion Oaks (math 37% / reading 36%, grade F, #405 of 571 statewide, top 72%, 1,067 students, 68% FRL); Dunnellon High School (math 30% / reading 32%, grade F, #429 of 667 statewide, top 65%, 1,350 students, 63% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 1376 active listings in the ZIP; 36 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($233k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $194,070 (19.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.79%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-38,285
• Equity at exit: $35,770

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-47,537
• Equity at exit: $20,742

Cash invested: $67,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34473

• Home prices YoY: -16.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 1376
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,941 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,258
• Tax from tax record: −$75 /mo · $898/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$408
• Net cashflow: $100

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,814

Max offer price $239,900

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $236	-5% $168	+0% $100	+5% $32	+10% $-36
Rent	-10% $-53	-5% $24	+0% $100	+5% $177	+10% $254
Rate	-1.0pp $221	-0.5pp $161	base $100	+0.5pp $38	+1.0pp $-25

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,975
• Closing costs: $7,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 36 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5541 SW 153rd Street Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1357	$1,700	$1.25	15d	1	0.29mi
15284 SW 60th Cir Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1468	$1,700	$1.16	15d	1	0.34mi
15889 SW 58th Ter Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1774	$1,875	$1.06	15d	1	0.48mi
15137 SW 61st Court Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1371	$1,650	$1.20	23d	1	0.49mi
576 Marion Oaks Mnr Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1710	$1,845	$1.08	15d	1	0.53mi
15945 SW 57th Terrace Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1416	$1,675	$1.18	23d	1	0.54mi
15713 SW 49th Avenue Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1787	$1,899	$1.06	15d	1	0.58mi
5077 SW 155th Loop Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1761	$2,045	$1.16	15d	1	0.62mi
5141 SW 157th St Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1797	$1,899	$1.06	15d	1	0.64mi
15095 SW 51st Ter Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1196	$1,500	$1.25	15d	1	0.66mi
5029 SW 155th Loop Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1797	$1,899	$1.06	15d	1	0.69mi
15962 SW 53rd Ct Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1380	$1,800	$1.30	15d	1	0.77mi
16054 SW 55th Avenue Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1696	$1,950	$1.15	15d	1	0.78mi
15401 SW 65th Terrace Rd Dunnellon, FL	3.0	2.0	1514	$1,900	$1.25	23d	1	0.79mi
15760 SW 55th Avenue Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1514	$2,000	$1.32	23d	1	0.79mi
15944 SW 53rd Ct Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1321	$1,850	$1.40	23d	1	0.81mi
16210 SW 59th Avenue Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1622	$2,200	$1.36	15d	1	0.82mi
4967 SW 150th Ln Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1696	$1,950	$1.15	23d	1	0.85mi
746 Marion Oaks Mnr Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1751	$2,000	$1.14	23d	1	0.87mi
15209 SW 46th Cir Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1691	$1,650	$0.98	23d	1	0.89mi
15018 SW 48th Ave Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1413	$1,625	$1.15	15d	1	0.95mi
6765 SW 152nd Lane Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1778	$1,850	$1.04	15d	1	0.98mi
14965 SW 48th Ave Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1342	$1,700	$1.27	15d	1	0.99mi
14983 SW 65th Avenue Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1557	$2,995	$1.92	15d	1	0.99mi
14843 SW 48th Ave Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1573	$1,725	$1.10	23d	1	1.07mi
14919 SW 46th Cir Ocala, FL	4.0	3.0	1870	$2,000	$1.07	15d	1	1.09mi
422 Marion Oaks Crse Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1578	$1,900	$1.20	15d	1	1.11mi
4605 SW 158th Street Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1710	$1,695	$0.99	23d	1	1.13mi
6949 SW 152nd St Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1331	$2,000	$1.50	15d	1	1.16mi
14257 SW 60th Ter #1 Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1215	$2,400	$1.98	15d	1	1.20mi
4572 SW 149th St Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1751	$1,950	$1.11	23d	1	1.20mi
15568 SW 46th Cir Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1833	$2,200	$1.20	15d	1	1.22mi
4484 SW 151st St Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1578	$1,750	$1.11	23d	1	1.23mi
14614 SW 46th Ct Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,800	$1.50	23d	1	1.28mi
333 Marion Oaks Golf Way Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1617	$1,695	$1.05	15d	1	1.38mi
566 Marion Oaks Blvd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1796	$2,100	$1.17	15d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-11
   listed $239,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $898 · $75/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,991 · $166/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,093/yr (+$91/mo · 121.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,288
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,438
• − Property taxes: −$898
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,863
• − Management: −$1,863
• − Depreciation: −$6,979
• Taxable loss: −$2,953
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$709
• After-tax cash flow: $1,912/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Marion Oaks

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Marion Oaks, FL
• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• City population: 25,030
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 26,813
• Household income: $72,366
• Rent vs Own: 21.5% rent · 78.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 228.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 33% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 19% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 17% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Portuguese 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 27% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.25%
• Current HPI: 224.3536
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.67%
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-11 Listed $239,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+18.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $898 · +171.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.