154 Squaw Trl · Pocono Pines, PA 18347

$139,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1973 0.30 ac lot $138/sqft · 41% below area Est $235k · 41% under ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.6/10.0
• Appreciation +4.3/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath home nestled in the sought-after Arrowhead Lake community! Full of character and cozy charm, this home offers a warm and inviting living room highlighted by a fireplace--perfect for relaxing after a day at the lake. Situated on a level yard, the property provides easy outdoor enjoyment and plenty of space for entertaining, gardening, or recreation. Conveniently located just a short distance to community amenities including the lake, playground, and recreational areas, this home offers great potential as a full-time residence, vacation getaway, or investment property. With a little TLC, this gem can truly shine!

Key facts

• Level yard
• Community amenities
• Outdoor enjoyment

Tags

• ARROWHEAD LAKE COMMUNITY
• LEVEL YARD
• FIREPLACE
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES
• OUTDOOR ENJOYMENT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot is level, cleared and wooded with many trees; Private road frontage; road surface is chip-and-seal and gravel; Lot dimensions approximately 75 x 175 x 75 x 184 (about 0.3 acres)
• HOA & community: Located in Arrowhead Lakes subdivision

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street unpaved parking
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Electricity connected (circuit breakers); Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; Built in 1973
• Construction: T1-11 exterior siding; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Private yard; Deck; Front porch; Asphalt roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Range (stove)
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (Primary bedroom 15.4 x 10); Bedroom 2 10.5 x 9; Bedroom 3 13 x 11.5
• Flooring: No flooring specified
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Electric heating; No central air
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Living room fireplace
• Laundry & utility: No built-in cooling

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $139k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $478 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $139k).
• Cap rate 10.4% vs local median 4.3% in Pocono Pines — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#532 in PA, #4,925 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Pocono Mountain SD (rural): math 37% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #245 of 539 in PA (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 251 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 278 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (52 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $961 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monroe County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-1.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $120k; 16% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $139,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.73%
• DSCR: 1.66
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $235,139
• List price: $139,000
• Delta: -40.89%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
121 Squaw Trl	0.13mi	2/1.0 (-1)	970 (-4%)	7mo	$160,000	$165	77
192 Wyalusing Dr	0.50mi	3/1.0	992 (-2%)	6mo	$237,000	$239	69
1031 Wyoming Dr	0.30mi	3/1.0	1,104 (+10%)	10mo	$190,000	$172	61
309 Caribou Dr	0.20mi	2/1.0 (-1)	880 (-13%)	8mo	$250,000	$284	58
20 Minisink Dr	0.35mi	2/2.0 (-1)	972 (-4%)	14mo	$230,000	$237	57
223 Wyalusing Dr	0.65mi	3/1.0	1,032 (+2%)	11mo	$222,000	$215	57
2143 Sheshequin Dr	0.28mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,104 (+10%)	13mo	$227,500	$206	56
202 Orono Dr	0.09mi	2/1.0 (-1)	864 (-14%)	16mo	$200,000	$231	54
323 Orono Dr	0.49mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,100 (+9%)	5mo	$212,000	$193	52
283 Orono Dr	0.31mi	3/1.0	864 (-14%)	17mo	$130,000	$150	48
1136 Cherokee Dr	0.67mi	3/1.0	1,150 (+14%)	12mo	$195,000	$170	35
113 Outer Dr	0.65mi	3/1.0	1,152 (+14%)	13mo	$220,000	$191	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.47% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.44×
• Total profit: $17,094
• Equity at exit: $30,430

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.61×
• Total profit: $62,684
• Equity at exit: $29,363

Cash invested: $38,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18347

• Home prices YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 251
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,889 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax from tax record: −$227 /mo · $2,729/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$397
• Net cashflow: $478

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,284

Max offer price $139,000

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $557	-5% $517	+0% $478	+5% $439	+10% $399
Rent	-10% $329	-5% $403	+0% $478	+5% $552	+10% $627
Rate	-1.0pp $548	-0.5pp $513	base $478	+0.5pp $442	+1.0pp $405

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,750
• Closing costs: $4,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
104 Iowa Trl Pocono Lake, PA	2.0	1.0	874	$1,675	$1.92	45d	1	1.03mi
257 Farmers Ln Pocono Lake, PA	3.0	2.5	1344	$2,200	$1.64	15d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-05-09
   listed $139,000 Active 661-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,729 · $227/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,729 · $227/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,666
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,786
• − Property taxes: −$2,729
• − Insurance: −$695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,813
• − Management: −$1,813
• − Depreciation: −$4,044
• Taxable income: $3,785
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$908
• After-tax cash flow: $4,826/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pocono Mountain SD
• NCES district ID: 4219500
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $55,317
• Composite: 39.91/100
• National rank: #3856
• State rank: #245 of 539 in PA

Livability — Pocono Pines

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #532
• US rank: #4925

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 595
• Population (ZIP): 3,535

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 164,099 people
• By 2030: 161,412 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 154,616 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 146,710 · -10.6%
• By 2075: 140,830 · -14.2%
• By 2100: 138,472 · -15.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 10% Black 2% Two or more races 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.1% · R 49.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.1pp toward R · 2008: 16.3pp · 2024: -0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.8 2020: D+6.4 2016: D+0.3 2012: D+14.0 2008: D+16.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.47%
• Current HPI: 202.3693
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-13.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Sold (MLS) $120,000 GSBR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-05-20 Pending — GSBR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-05-09 Listed $139,000 GSBR as distributed by MLS GRID

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,729 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.