29350 Dunns Creek Ct · Katy, TX 77494

$245,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,748 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 77 Days on market

Built 2017 10,837 sqft lot $140/sqft · 24% below area Est $322k · 24% under $104/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +5.6/30.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.6/5.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nestled in a quiet cul-de-sac within the master-planned community of Tamarron, 29350 Dunns Creek Ct offers an exceptional opportunity on a premium lot of over 10,000 sqft. This well-maintained home features 4 spacious bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, designed with an open-concept layout that seamlessly connects the living, dining, and kitchen areas—perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The generously sized backyard provides endless possibilities, whether you envision a custom pool, outdoor kitchen, or your own private retreat. Located in one of Tamarron’s most desirable sections, residents enjoy top-tier amenities including pickleball and tennis courts, scenic walking trails, and access to highly rated schools. This property offers incredible value for buyers looking to invest or settle into a growing community. Don’t miss your chance to make this home yours.

Key facts

• Custom pool
• Premium lot
• Private retreat

Tags

• PREMIUM LOT
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• GENEROUSLY SIZED BACKYARD
• CUSTOM POOL
• OUTDOOR KITCHEN
• PRIVATE RETREAT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $245k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-513 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $177k (27.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $217k (11.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $177k (27.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 3.8% vs local median 3.0% in Katy — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#111 in TX, #3,613 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities D, commute F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Huggins El (math 61% / reading 63%, grade B, #321 of 4,322 statewide, top 8%, 893 students, 23% FRL); Briscoe J H (math 59% / reading 60%, grade B, #166 of 1,662 statewide, top 11%, 1,914 students, 38% FRL); Foster H S (math 64% / reading 74%, grade B, #141 of 1,632 statewide, top 9%, 2,388 students, 34% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 64% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Lamar CISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.5%/yr); 1037 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 18% of the median local income ($149k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($230k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $75k (23%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $176,935 (27.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.98%
• DSCR: 0.60
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $322,110
• List price: $245,000
• Delta: -23.94%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
29103 Jacobs River Dr	0.37mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,791 (+2%)	1mo	$279,000	$156	73
3215 Zephyr Park Ln	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,685 (-4%)	2mo	$280,000	$166	69
2630 Lemonwood Ln	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,837 (+5%)	8mo	$354,990	$193	68
3014 Veeder Pass Ln	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,485 (-15%)	2mo	$274,000	$185	67
29519 Patricias Way	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,508 (-14%)	6mo	$280,000	$186	67
3227 Zephyr Park Ln	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,701 (-3%)	8mo	$294,900	$173	64
29107 Innes Park Pl	0.35mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,652 (-6%)	10mo	$325,000	$197	62
29331 Mesquite Oaks Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,559 (-11%)	3mo	$360,000	$231	59
29606 Foliage Ln	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,508 (-14%)	3mo	$284,990	$189	57
29722 Cauthers Pass Ln	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,508 (-14%)	4mo	$280,000	$186	56
3939 Mcdonough Way	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,523 (-13%)	9mo	$265,000	$174	50
2930 Mcdonough	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,487 (-15%)	11mo	$275,000	$185	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -36.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.14×
• Total profit: $-78,392
• Equity at exit: $36,530

10-year hold

• IRR: -86.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.95×
• Total profit: $-133,474
• Equity at exit: $21,183

Cash invested: $68,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77494

• Home prices YoY: -32.5%
• Rents YoY: -3.5%
• Active inventory: 1037
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,171 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax from tax record: −$737 /mo · $8,847/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$104
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$456
• Net cashflow: $-513

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,820

Max offer price $176,935

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-375	-5% $-444	+0% $-513	+5% $-583	+10% $-652
Rent	-10% $-685	-5% $-599	+0% $-513	+5% $-428	+10% $-342
Rate	-1.0pp $-390	-0.5pp $-451	base $-513	+0.5pp $-577	+1.0pp $-641

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,250
• Closing costs: $7,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
29202 Jarvis Bay Pass Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1563	$2,200	$1.41	7d	1	0.25mi
29655 Jordan Crossing Blvd Brookshire, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1044	$2,434	$2.33	0d	29	0.65mi
3407 Tamarron Trce Unit BATN Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	1053	$1,705	$1.62	26d	1	0.73mi
3000 Tamarron Trce Unit AATF1 Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	1053	$1,885	$1.79	4d	1	0.76mi
3000 Tamarron Trce Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	1053	$1,885	$1.79	45d	1	0.76mi
3615 Texas Heritage Pkwy Katy, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1028	$2,366	$2.30	0d	38	0.91mi
2011 Texas Heritage Pkwy Katy, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	901	$2,346	$2.60	1d	38	0.93mi
3711 Daintree Park Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1892	$2,101	$1.11	21d	1	0.98mi
2943 Fair Chase Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1710	$1,944	$1.14	45d	1	1.13mi
9863 Willowmoor Ln Brookshire, TX	4.0	2.0	2070	$2,550	$1.23	26d	1	1.32mi
3551 Shearwater St Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2054	$2,500	$1.22	45d	1	1.35mi
3230 FM 1463 Rd Katy, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	988	$2,525	$2.55	1d	47	1.35mi
29403 Cayman Canyon Way Katy, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0	1679	$2,132	$1.27	3d	17	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $104 · $1,248/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-10
   days on market $245,000 Active 77 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $245,000 Active 76 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $245,000 Active 75 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   days on market $299,900 Active 72 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $299,900 Active 71 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $299,900 Active 70 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $299,900 Active 69 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $299,900 Active 68 DOM
9. 2026-05-05
   price $299,900 900-char remark

   Show marketing remark (900 chars)

   Nestled in a quiet cul-de-sac within the master-planned community of Tamarron, 29350 Dunns Creek Ct offers an exceptional opportunity on a premium lot of over 10,000 sqft. This well-maintained home features 4 spacious bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, designed with an open-concept layout that seamlessly connects the living, dining, and kitchen areas—perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The generously sized backyard provides endless possibilities, whether you envision a custom pool, outdoor kitchen, or your own private retreat. Located in one of Tamarron’s most desirable sections, residents enjoy top-tier amenities including pickleball and tennis courts, scenic walking trails, and access to highly rated schools. This property offers incredible value for buyers looking to invest or settle into a growing community. Don’t miss your chance to make this home yours.

10. 2026-03-24
    listed $320,000 Active 900-char remark

    Show marketing remark (900 chars)

    Nestled in a quiet cul-de-sac within the master-planned community of Tamarron, 29350 Dunns Creek Ct offers an exceptional opportunity on a premium lot of over 10,000 sqft. This well-maintained home features 4 spacious bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, designed with an open-concept layout that seamlessly connects the living, dining, and kitchen areas—perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The generously sized backyard provides endless possibilities, whether you envision a custom pool, outdoor kitchen, or your own private retreat. Located in one of Tamarron’s most desirable sections, residents enjoy top-tier amenities including pickleball and tennis courts, scenic walking trails, and access to highly rated schools. This property offers incredible value for buyers looking to invest or settle into a growing community. Don’t miss your chance to make this home yours.

11. 2026-03-16
    historical
12. 2025-12-09
    price $345,000
13. 2025-10-15
    listed $365,000 Active
14. 2024-09-10
    soldstatus Sold
15. 2024-09-10
    soldstatus
16. 2024-07-17
    status Pending
17. 2024-07-12
    status Option Pending
18. 2024-06-24
    status Active
19. 2024-06-19
    status Option Pending
20. 2024-06-07
    listed $315,000 Active
21. 2024-06-06
    historical
22. 2024-04-26
    listed $334,950 Active
23. 2024-04-25
    historical
24. 2024-03-27
    listed $340,000 Active
25. 2024-03-27
    historical
26. 2024-03-17
    listed $350,000 Active
27. 2024-03-13
    historical
28. 2023-01-26
    soldstatus
29. 2021-02-12
    soldstatus Sold
30. 2021-02-12
    soldstatus
31. 2021-01-09
    status Pending
32. 2020-12-29
    status Option Pending
33. 2020-12-11
    listed $249,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,847 · $737/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,847 · $737/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 70% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,048
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,724
• − Property taxes: −$8,847
• − Insurance: −$1,225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,084
• − Management: −$2,084
• − HOA: −$1,248
• − Depreciation: −$7,127
• Taxable loss: −$10,290
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,470
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,690/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

Livability — Katy

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #111
• US rank: #3613

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• City population: 413,575
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 140,157
• Household income: $148,720
• Rent vs Own: 29.1% rent · 70.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 3390.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 39% Hispanic / Latino 25% Asian 24% Two or more races 18% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 39% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 54% English-only · Spanish 20% Other Indo-European 8% Other Asian/Pacific 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -110.62%
• Current HPI: 229.7189
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.53%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+20.0% since first listed

25 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $299,900 HARMLS
• 2026-03-24 Listed $320,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-16 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-12-09 Price Changed $345,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-15 Listed $365,000 HARMLS
• 2024-09-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-09-10 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2024-07-17 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-07-12 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-06-24 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2024-06-19 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-06-07 Listed $315,000 HARMLS
• 2024-06-06 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-04-26 Listed $334,950 HARMLS
• 2024-04-25 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-03-27 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-03-27 Listed $340,000 HARMLS
• 2024-03-17 Listed $350,000 HARMLS
• 2024-03-13 Coming Soon — HARMLS
• 2023-01-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-02-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-02-12 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2021-01-09 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-12-29 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-12-11 Listed $249,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+32.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,847 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.