510 S 9th St · Hidalgo, TX 78557

$170,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,397 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 219 Days on market

Built 1999 6,733 sqft lot $122/sqft · at area comps Est $170k · at est. ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.6/15.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

An ideal home for first-time buyers, savvy investors, or anyone looking to plant roots in one of the RGVs most accessible areas. This charming home offers unbeatable convenience, located directly across the street from Hidalgo Early College High School and just minutes from the McAllen/Hidalgo International Bridge, making daily commutes and cross-border access a breeze. Whether you're looking to settle down or grow your investment portfolio, this home delivers the dream of opportunity — a home with great bones, in a location that can’t be beat.

Key facts

• 6,733 sq ft lot
• Built 1999
• Listed 219 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-222 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $131k (23.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $132k (22.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $131k (23.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#488 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Hidalgo ISD (suburban): math 25% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #678 of 826 in TX (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 98 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 219 days — a 12% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 95% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $130,841 (23.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 219 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.73%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.59%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $170,403
• List price: $170,000
• Delta: -0.24%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
904 Camelia Ave	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,407 (+1%)	9mo	$183,000	$130	86
701 E Azalea Ave	0.25mi	3/2.5	1,331 (-5%)	3mo	$169,000	$127	76
900 E Camelia Ave	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,222 (-12%)	12mo	$199,900	$164	66
1505 Esperanza Ave	0.56mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,410 (+1%)	3mo	$177,600	$126	65
203 S 8th St	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,596 (+14%)	6mo	$175,000	$110	61
1210 E Boganbilia Ave	0.29mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,559 (+12%)	1mo	$190,000	$122	60
1105 E Camelia Ave	0.19mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,249 (-11%)	22mo	$162,700	$130	51
1523 E Gardenia Ave	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,342 (-4%)	21mo	$189,500	$141	48
1705 E Gardenia Ave	0.69mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,551 (+11%)	24mo	$210,000	$135	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.65×
• Total profit: $78,544
• Equity at exit: $153,149

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.10×
• Total profit: $242,552
• Equity at exit: $330,273

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78557

• Home prices YoY: 17.9%
• Active inventory: 98
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,321 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$303 /mo · $3,639/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$277
• Net cashflow: $-222

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,602

Max offer price $130,841

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-125	-5% $-174	+0% $-222	+5% $-270	+10% $-318
Rent	-10% $-326	-5% $-274	+0% $-222	+5% $-169	+10% $-117
Rate	-1.0pp $-136	-0.5pp $-178	base $-222	+0.5pp $-266	+1.0pp $-311

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
201 S 5th St Apt 15 Hidalgo, TX	2.0	2.5	1172	$895	$0.76	44d	1	0.29mi
607 Buccaneer Dr Unit 4 Hidalgo, TX	3.0	2.0	1068	$1,600	$1.50	44d	1	0.46mi
605 Buccaneer Dr Unit 3 Hidalgo, TX	3.0	2.0	1068	$1,400	$1.31	24d	1	0.47mi
704 S 17th St Hidalgo, TX	3.0	2.0	1666	$1,650	$0.99	24d	1	0.68mi
2509 Coma St Hidalgo, TX	4.0	2.5	1804	$1,750	$0.97	24d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $170,000 Active 219 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $170,000 Active 218 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $170,000 Active 217 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $170,000 Active 216 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $170,000 Active 214 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $170,000 Active 211 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $170,000 Active 210 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $170,000 Active 209 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $170,000 Active 208 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $170,000 Active 205 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $170,000 Active 204 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $170,000 Active 203 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $170,000 Active 202 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $170,000 Active 201 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $170,000 Active 200 DOM
16. 2025-11-11
    listed $170,000 Active 562-char remark

    Show marketing remark (562 chars)

    An ideal home for first-time buyers, savvy investors, or anyone looking to plant roots in one of the RGVs most accessible areas. This charming home offers unbeatable convenience, located directly across the street from Hidalgo Early College High School and just minutes from the McAllen/Hidalgo International Bridge, making daily commutes and cross-border access a breeze. Whether you're looking to settle down or grow your investment portfolio, this home delivers the dream of opportunity — a home with great bones, in a location that can’t be beat.

17. 2025-06-02
    price $175,000
18. 2025-03-28
    listed $179,000 Active
19. 1998-07-06
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,639 · $303/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,639 · $303/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 95% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,856
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$3,639
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,269
• − Management: −$1,269
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable loss: −$5,637
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,353
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,307/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hidalgo ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823100
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $35,219
• Composite: 23.52/100
• National rank: #7866
• State rank: #678 of 826 in TX

Livability — Hidalgo

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #488
• US rank: #9681

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hidalgo, TX
• City population: 14,250
• Population (ZIP): 14,250

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (99%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 99% Two or more races 47%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 93%
• Foreign-born: 39% · Canada
• Languages at home: 6% English-only · Spanish 94%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 34.26%
• Current HPI: 225.701
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-11 Listed $170,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-06-02 Price Changed $175,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-03-28 Listed $179,000 MCALLENMLS
• 1998-07-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,639 · +5.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.