40511 Tyto Ln · Magnolia, TX 77354

$235,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,492 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 60 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition 4,621 sqft lot $158/sqft · 14% below area Est $274k · 14% under $154/mo HOA · 7% of rent ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.9/15.0
• Cash flow +10.4/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

From the moment you step inside, this open concept home delivers an effortless flow that feels both spacious and welcoming. A dedicated office provides the perfect work-from-home setup, while the living room connects seamlessly to the dining room and modern kitchen, which shines with an island and generous cabinet space — an ideal setup for everyday living and entertaining alike. The primary suite offers a well-appointed ensuite bath with dual sinks, a soaking tub, a walk-in shower, and a walk-in closet. Two additional bedrooms provide the flexibility you need, and outside, the fully fenced yard delivers a covered patio and lush greenspace to enjoy Texas evenings at their finest. Zanti The Woodlands, Local Table, and Postino Woodlands offer standout dining just minutes away, and Market Street puts upscale open-air shopping and live events right at your fingertips.

Key facts

• Soaking tub
• Walk-in shower
• Dedicated office

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT HOME
• DEDICATED OFFICE
• MODERN KITCHEN
• WELL-APPOINTED ENSUITE BATH
• SOAKING TUB
• WALK-IN SHOWER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $235k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-123 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $213k (9.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (4.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $213k (9.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.4% in Magnolia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1604 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $25k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($228k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $213,308 (9.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.24%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $273,872
• List price: $235,000
• Delta: -14.19%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
40511 Tyto Ln	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,492 (0%)	0mo	$235,000	$158	100
40530 Tyto Ln	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,464 (-2%)	1mo	$274,900	$188	94
40423 Gerygone Ln	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,464 (-2%)	9mo	$289,900	$198	87
40414 Gerygone Ln	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,464 (-2%)	11mo	$269,900	$184	86
40443 Gerygone Ln	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,614 (+8%)	5mo	$304,900	$189	79
40431 Gerygone Ln	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,614 (+8%)	10mo	$279,900	$173	75
40551 Berylline Ln	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,614 (+8%)	12mo	$274,900	$170	71
15230 Falco Ln	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,649 (+10%)	12mo	$278,000	$169	69
40731 Barley Straw	0.56mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,476 (-1%)	2mo	$264,990	$180	66
40025 Mill Creek Rd	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,437 (-4%)	12mo	$1,100,000	$765	63
15122 Rose Willow Ln	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,575 (+6%)	2mo	$279,990	$178	63
40762 Barley Straw Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,328 (-11%)	2mo	$239,990	$181	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.74×
• Total profit: $114,470
• Equity at exit: $211,707

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.06×
• Total profit: $332,939
• Equity at exit: $456,553

Cash invested: $65,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1604
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,246 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$413 /mo · $4,955/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$154
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$472
• Net cashflow: $-123

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,401

Max offer price $213,308

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,750
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
40558 Berylline Ln Unit NA Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1499	$2,150	$1.43	24d	1	0.10mi
40547 Berylline Ln Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	1753	$2,300	$1.31	44d	1	0.12mi
39899 Mill Creek Rd Magnolia, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1104	$2,726	$2.47	1d	40	0.32mi
40839 Hawthorne Glades St Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1156	$2,100	$1.82	44d	1	1.39mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $154 · $1,848/yr

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $235,000 Pending 60 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $235,000 Pending 59 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $235,000 Pending 58 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   days on market $235,000 Pending 55 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $235,000 Pending 54 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $235,000 Pending 53 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   status $235,000 Pending 52 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $235,000 Active 52 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $235,000 Active 51 DOM
10. 2026-05-12
    status Active 883-char remark

    Show marketing remark (883 chars)

    From the moment you step inside, this open concept home delivers an effortless flow that feels both spacious and welcoming. A dedicated office provides the perfect work-from-home setup, while the living room connects seamlessly to the dining room and modern kitchen, which shines with an island and generous cabinet space — an ideal setup for everyday living and entertaining alike. The primary suite offers a well-appointed ensuite bath with dual sinks, a soaking tub, a walk-in shower, and a walk-in closet. Two additional bedrooms provide the flexibility you need, and outside, the fully fenced yard delivers a covered patio and lush greenspace to enjoy Texas evenings at their finest. Zanti The Woodlands, Local Table, and Postino Woodlands offer standout dining just minutes away, and Market Street puts upscale open-air shopping and live events right at your fingertips.

11. 2026-04-29
    status Pending 883-char remark

    Show marketing remark (883 chars)

    From the moment you step inside, this open concept home delivers an effortless flow that feels both spacious and welcoming. A dedicated office provides the perfect work-from-home setup, while the living room connects seamlessly to the dining room and modern kitchen, which shines with an island and generous cabinet space — an ideal setup for everyday living and entertaining alike. The primary suite offers a well-appointed ensuite bath with dual sinks, a soaking tub, a walk-in shower, and a walk-in closet. Two additional bedrooms provide the flexibility you need, and outside, the fully fenced yard delivers a covered patio and lush greenspace to enjoy Texas evenings at their finest. Zanti The Woodlands, Local Table, and Postino Woodlands offer standout dining just minutes away, and Market Street puts upscale open-air shopping and live events right at your fingertips.

12. 2026-04-21
    status Pending 883-char remark

    Show marketing remark (883 chars)

    From the moment you step inside, this open concept home delivers an effortless flow that feels both spacious and welcoming. A dedicated office provides the perfect work-from-home setup, while the living room connects seamlessly to the dining room and modern kitchen, which shines with an island and generous cabinet space — an ideal setup for everyday living and entertaining alike. The primary suite offers a well-appointed ensuite bath with dual sinks, a soaking tub, a walk-in shower, and a walk-in closet. Two additional bedrooms provide the flexibility you need, and outside, the fully fenced yard delivers a covered patio and lush greenspace to enjoy Texas evenings at their finest. Zanti The Woodlands, Local Table, and Postino Woodlands offer standout dining just minutes away, and Market Street puts upscale open-air shopping and live events right at your fingertips.

13. 2026-04-09
    price $235,000 883-char remark

    Show marketing remark (883 chars)

    From the moment you step inside, this open concept home delivers an effortless flow that feels both spacious and welcoming. A dedicated office provides the perfect work-from-home setup, while the living room connects seamlessly to the dining room and modern kitchen, which shines with an island and generous cabinet space — an ideal setup for everyday living and entertaining alike. The primary suite offers a well-appointed ensuite bath with dual sinks, a soaking tub, a walk-in shower, and a walk-in closet. Two additional bedrooms provide the flexibility you need, and outside, the fully fenced yard delivers a covered patio and lush greenspace to enjoy Texas evenings at their finest. Zanti The Woodlands, Local Table, and Postino Woodlands offer standout dining just minutes away, and Market Street puts upscale open-air shopping and live events right at your fingertips.

14. 2026-03-27
    listed $250,000 Active 883-char remark

    Show marketing remark (883 chars)

    From the moment you step inside, this open concept home delivers an effortless flow that feels both spacious and welcoming. A dedicated office provides the perfect work-from-home setup, while the living room connects seamlessly to the dining room and modern kitchen, which shines with an island and generous cabinet space — an ideal setup for everyday living and entertaining alike. The primary suite offers a well-appointed ensuite bath with dual sinks, a soaking tub, a walk-in shower, and a walk-in closet. Two additional bedrooms provide the flexibility you need, and outside, the fully fenced yard delivers a covered patio and lush greenspace to enjoy Texas evenings at their finest. Zanti The Woodlands, Local Table, and Postino Woodlands offer standout dining just minutes away, and Market Street puts upscale open-air shopping and live events right at your fingertips.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,955 · $413/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,955 · $413/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,952
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,164
• − Property taxes: −$4,955
• − Insurance: −$1,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,156
• − Management: −$2,156
• − HOA: −$1,848
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable loss: −$5,338
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,281
• After-tax cash flow: $-192/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home in Magnolia, TX, is in good condition with a modern kitchen and bathrooms. It offers a spacious and welcoming interior with a well-maintained exterior and landscaping. Minor updates to the exterior and interior can significantly enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property.
• Resale New flooring in bathrooms — Modernizes bathrooms and improves resale value.
• Resale New kitchen appliances — Modernizes kitchen and improves resale value.
• Both New lighting fixtures — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics, improving both resale and rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑
• Resale New flooring in bathrooms — Modernizes bathrooms and improves resale value. ↑
• Resale New kitchen appliances — Modernizes kitchen and improves resale value. ↑
• Both New lighting fixtures — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics, improving both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-04-29 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-21 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $235,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-27 Listed $250,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+74.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,955 · -0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.