5537 Sunbury Ave · Country Club Hills, MO 63136

$39,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 936 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1946 5,501 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks

This 3-bedroom, 1-bathroom home is ready for a renovation, presenting an excellent opportunity for a buyer with vision to add significant value and customize the property. This asset is available as part of a one-off purchase or a portfolio deal. Contact the listing agent to explore packaging options with other properties.

Key facts

• 5,501 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1946

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $559 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $39k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#491 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Jennings (suburban): math 8% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #315 of 324 in MO (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 86% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Fairview Primary (math 34% / reading 34%, grade F, #676 of 1,115 statewide, top 66%, 267 students, 100% FRL); Rose Johnson Jennings Jr. High (math 10% / reading 23%, grade F, #357 of 391 statewide, top 91%, 361 students, 100% FRL); Jennings High (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #497 of 521 statewide, top 96%, 691 students, 100% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 376 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($41k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($276 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.8% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (3.8% appreciation + 5.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($39k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $40k implies a 60% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1946 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $39,301 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1946 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.91% ✓
• Cap rate: 24.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 65.96%
• DSCR: 3.93
• GRM: 2.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $87,048
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5537 Sunbury Ave	0.00mi	3/1.0 (+1)	936 (0%)	0mo	$39,900	$43	95
7471 Sharon Dr	0.09mi	3/1.0 (+1)	945 (+1%)	0mo	$98,000	$104	89
5636 Sunbury Ave	0.26mi	2/1.0	870 (-7%)	3mo	$74,900	$86	73
5544 Sapphire Ave	0.31mi	3/1.0 (+1)	888 (-5%)	3mo	$115,000	$130	70
5614 Albia Ter	0.29mi	3/2.0 (+1)	988 (+6%)	1mo	$125,000	$127	68
5218 Fletcher St	0.68mi	2/1.0	918 (-2%)	2mo	$75,000	$82	63
5220 Fletcher St	0.67mi	2/1.0	918 (-2%)	3mo	$64,900	$71	63
7053 Idlewild Ave	0.65mi	2/1.0	900 (-4%)	5mo	$116,800	$130	59
7117 W Florissant Ave	0.74mi	2/1.0	992 (+6%)	1mo	$77,000	$78	54
7441 Calvin Ave	0.37mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,068 (+14%)	3mo	$99,500	$93	52
7041 Garesche Ave	0.74mi	2/1.0	864 (-8%)	3mo	$39,900	$46	51
2604 Avie Dr	0.66mi	2/1.0	825 (-12%)	3mo	$99,900	$121	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.79% appreciation · 4.97% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 67.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.98×
• Total profit: $44,488
• Equity at exit: $19,742

10-year hold

• IRR: 67.5%
• Equity multiple: 10.87×
• Total profit: $110,311
• Equity at exit: $31,907

Cash invested: $11,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63136

• Home prices YoY: 0.9%
• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 376
• Price-to-rent: 2.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,162 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$209
• Tax from tax record: −$78 /mo · $933/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$244
• Net cashflow: $559

Break-even live

Break-even rent $455

Max offer price $39,900

Occupancy floor 47%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $581	-5% $570	+0% $559	+5% $547	+10% $536
Rent	-10% $467	-5% $513	+0% $559	+5% $604	+10% $650
Rate	-1.0pp $579	-0.5pp $569	base $559	+0.5pp $548	+1.0pp $538

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,975
• Closing costs: $1,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7431 Esterbrook Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	792	$1,350	$1.70	45d	1	0.11mi
7420 Pleaseway Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	952	$1,250	$1.31	23d	1	0.12mi
7414 Pleaseway Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	768	$1,100	$1.43	45d	1	0.13mi
5600 Gatesworth Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	672	$1,095	$1.63	6d	1	0.19mi
5613 Statler Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	864	$1,300	$1.50	6d	1	0.23mi
5636 Statler Ave Saint Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	777	$1,200	$1.54	25d	1	0.29mi
7315 Albright Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	888	$1,150	$1.30	45d	1	0.33mi
7304 Albright Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	800	$1,100	$1.38	45d	1	0.35mi
7426 Calvin Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,125	$1.02	19d	1	0.37mi
5640 Sapphire Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	900	$1,100	$1.22	45d	1	0.38mi
7441 Calvin Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1068	$1,350	$1.26	14d	1	0.39mi
7218 Albright Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1100	$980	$0.89	25d	1	0.41mi
7516 Chandler Ave Saint Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	728	$1,000	$1.37	45d	1	0.43mi
5516 Fairridge Ct Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1110	$995	$0.90	25d	1	0.51mi
5615 Beldon Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	850	$950	$1.12	45d	1	0.54mi
7205 Calvin Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	832	$750	$0.90	45d	1	0.59mi
5225 Fletcher St Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	918	$1,295	$1.41	25d	1	0.63mi
7142 Lamont Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	750	$1,100	$1.47	19d	1	0.64mi
7131 Garesche Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	918	$1,090	$1.19	5d	1	0.66mi
7030 Emma Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	801	$1,350	$1.69	45d	1	0.69mi
2623 Avie Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	921	$1,350	$1.47	45d	1	0.71mi
7160 Beulah Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	784	$1,059	$1.35	45d	1	0.73mi
7160 Beulah Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	784	$1,059	$1.35	0d	1	0.73mi
7024 Idlewild Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	588	$995	$1.69	45d	1	0.75mi
8347 Eton Pl Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	750	$1,075	$1.43	0d	1	0.76mi
8347 Eton Pl Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	750	$1,075	$1.43	45d	1	0.76mi
7036 Garesche Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	864	$950	$1.10	19d	1	0.76mi
8344 Eton Pl Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	750	$895	$1.19	5d	1	0.77mi
5637 Jennings Station Rd Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1116	$895	$0.80	45d	1	0.79mi
2527 Switzer Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	888	$1,135	$1.28	18d	1	0.82mi
2427 Switzer Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1008	$1,300	$1.29	45d	1	0.89mi
5638 Helen Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	816	$1,299	$1.59	0d	1	0.94mi
2415 Shirley Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	990	$1,450	$1.46	25d	1	0.95mi
2617 Hord Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	800	$775	$0.97	5d	1	0.96mi
5635 Hodiamont Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	580	$899	$1.55	22d	1	0.98mi
5439 Hodiamont Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	770	$950	$1.23	19d	1	0.99mi
5830 Bermuda Dr Unit 34C St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	850	$895	$1.05	45d	1	1.00mi
5830 Bermuda Dr Unit 30B St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	900	$895	$0.99	25d	1	1.00mi
8908 Scottdale Ave Jennings, MO	2.0	1.0	790	$1,000	$1.27	45d	1	1.06mi
5415 Hamilton Ave Unit Labs Jennings, MO	2.0	1.0	864	$1,100	$1.27	25d	1	1.06mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2025-12-11
   status Pending
2. 2025-11-24
   listed $39,900 Active
3. 2025-02-21
   status Pending
4. 2025-01-06
   listed $99,900 Active
5. 2023-04-12
   soldstatus $25,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $933 · $78/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $933 · $78/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,940
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,235
• − Property taxes: −$933
• − Insurance: −$866
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,115
• − Management: −$1,115
• − Depreciation: −$1,161
• Taxable income: $6,514
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,563
• After-tax cash flow: $5,139/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jennings
• NCES district ID: 2916290
• Math proficiency: 8% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $30,595
• Composite: 11.04/100
• National rank: #9739
• State rank: #315 of 324 in MO

Livability — Country Club Hills

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #491
• US rank: #19080

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing B- Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Country Club Hills, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 40,929
• Household income: $41,154
• Rent vs Own: 53.1% rent · 46.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 3085.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 90% White 5% Two or more races 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.79%
• Current HPI: 420.28
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.97%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+59.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-11 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-24 Listed $39,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-21 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-06 Listed $99,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-04-12 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.4%/yr

Latest (2022): $933 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.