195 Naranjo Ave · Escobares, TX 78584

$85,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 54 Days on market

Built 1989 4,095 sqft lot $66/sqft · 47% below area Est $159k · 47% under ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.9/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Discover an incredible opportunity in Roma that you won’t want to miss! This charming 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home is the perfect choice for first time buyers, growing families, or anyone looking to settle into a comfortable and inviting space. With a smart layout and plenty of potential to make it your own, this home offers both functionality and warmth at a truly fantastic price. Opportunities like this don’t come around often especially at such an attractive value. Don’t let this one slip away! Schedule your private tour today and take the first step toward making this wonderful house your new home.

Key facts

• 4,095 sq ft lot
• 4 parking spots
• Built 1989

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: 4 total parking spaces; Covered carport for 4 vehicles; Other garage or carport configuration
• Utilities: Electric service; Public water (implied by electric water heater); Sewer (public or connected implied)
• Home design: Single-family property; 1,280 total building area (per listing source)
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on approximately 0.094 acre lot
• Exterior features: Wood fencing; Covered patio; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric water heater; Other kitchen appliance(s)
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Window unit cooling
• Interior features: Tile flooring; Drapes on windows; Solid surface countertops
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $446 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $82k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,028 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Roma ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #557 of 826 in TX (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Rt Barrera El (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #3,052 of 4,322 statewide, top 74%, 354 students, 89% FRL); Ramiro Barrera Middle (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,360 of 1,662 statewide, top 83%, 544 students, 89% FRL); Roma H S (math 20% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,096 of 1,632 statewide, top 68%, 1,773 students, 80% FRL) — zoned schools average 86% FRL vs 46% district-wide (41 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 78 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($588 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Starr County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($82k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $82,450 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.49% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.47%
• DSCR: 2.00
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $159,246
• List price: $85,000
• Delta: -46.62%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3249 J M Escobar St	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,316 (+3%)	19mo	$165,000	$125	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.62×
• Total profit: $38,619
• Equity at exit: $38,220

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.11×
• Total profit: $97,714
• Equity at exit: $58,901

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78584

• Active inventory: 78
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,263 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$71 /mo · $850/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$265
• Net cashflow: $446

Break-even live

Break-even rent $699

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 60%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $494	-5% $470	+0% $446	+5% $422	+10% $398
Rent	-10% $346	-5% $396	+0% $446	+5% $496	+10% $545
Rate	-1.0pp $488	-0.5pp $467	base $446	+0.5pp $424	+1.0pp $401

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $85,000 Active 54 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $85,000 Active 53 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,000 Active 51 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,000 Active 50 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,000 Active 49 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,000 Active 48 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,000 Active 47 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $85,000 Active 46 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $85,000 Active 45 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $85,000 Active 42 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $85,000 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $85,000 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $85,000 Active 39 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $85,000 Active 36 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $85,000 Active 35 DOM
16. 2026-06-02
    price $85,000 Active 34 DOM
17. 2026-06-01
    days on market $95,000 Active 34 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $95,000 Active 33 DOM
19. 2026-04-28
    listed $95,000 Active 625-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $850 · $71/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,556 · $130/mo
• Expected delta: +$705/yr (+$59/mo · 82.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥113°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,155
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$850
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,212
• − Management: −$1,212
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $4,220
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,013
• After-tax cash flow: $4,335/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Roma ISD
• NCES district ID: 4837740
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -31.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $22,991
• Composite: 28.55/100
• National rank: #6731
• State rank: #557 of 826 in TX

Livability — Escobares

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1028
• US rank: #18252

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Escobares, TX
• Population (ZIP): 17,823

Population outlook (Starr County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 67,298 people
• By 2030: 68,782 · +2.2%
• By 2040: 71,608 · +6.4%
• By 2050: 73,585 · +9.3%
• By 2075: 75,095 · +11.6%
• By 2100: 67,730 · +0.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (98%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 98% Two or more races 46% White 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 93%
• Foreign-born: 33% · Canada
• Languages at home: 6% English-only · Spanish 94%

Political lean MEDSL · Starr

• 2024 margin: R (+16.0) · D 41.8% · R 57.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -85.2pp toward R · 2008: 69.3pp · 2024: -16.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.0 2020: D+5.0 2016: D+60.1 2012: D+73.4 2008: D+69.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-10.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Price Changed $85,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2026-04-28 Listed $95,000 MCALLENMLS

Property tax history

+6.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $850 · +6.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.