3226 Paulk Rd · Marianna, FL 32446

$125,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,477 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 156 Days on market

Built 1966 2.28 ac lot Est $210k · 40% under ↓ 26% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

HOME & 2.26 ACS. in Dogwood Heights just north of town. Home features a large living room, 3 bedrooms snd 2 baths. There is a bonus room with exterior and interior access. A small sun room overlooks the back yard. The property has chain link fencing and a newer metal roof. The location is ideal for the family with children as it is near the new Marianna High School and the new Marianna K-8- school. Also Sunland, Marianna Industrial Park and the Marianna Airport is just a few minues away. With some repairs and updaes yu will have a lovely home to enjoy for years.

Key facts

• Bonus room
• Sun room
• Chain link fencing

Tags

• BONUS ROOM
• SUN ROOM
• NEWER METAL ROOF
• CHAIN LINK FENCING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Electricity available
• Home design: Single-story home; Zoned for single-family residential
• Construction: Brick construction; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Paved lot; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (10.9 x 11.6)
• Bedrooms: Bedroom (12.9 x 9.5); Bedroom (9.6 x 94)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Electric heating; Central air conditioning; Heat pump
• Interior features: Total of 7 rooms; Bonus room; Dining room; Living room; Primary bedroom

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $191 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 3.4% in Marianna — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#592 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime A-; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Jackson (rural): math 47% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #39 of 73 in FL (top 53%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 128 active listings in the ZIP; 153 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jackson County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 156 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (24%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $110,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 156 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.54%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $209,734
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3246 Peachtree Rd	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,504 (+2%)	13mo	$215,000	$143	77
4881 Tall Pine Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,418 (-4%)	7mo	$201,000	$142	73
3223 Highway 71	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,404 (-5%)	16mo	$182,500	$130	72
4966 Redwood Dr	0.36mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,506 (+2%)	2mo	$238,000	$158	70
4978 Camellia Dr	0.29mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,368 (-7%)	2mo	$190,000	$139	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-8,134
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.24×
• Total profit: $8,474
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32446

• Home prices YoY: -30.8%
• Active inventory: 128
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,257 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$95 /mo · $1,138/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$264
• Net cashflow: $191

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,016

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $261	-5% $226	+0% $191	+5% $155	+10% $120
Rent	-10% $91	-5% $141	+0% $191	+5% $240	+10% $290
Rate	-1.0pp $254	-0.5pp $222	base $191	+0.5pp $158	+1.0pp $125

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-15
   price $125,000
2. 2026-03-11
   price $145,000
3. 2026-02-06
   price $155,000
4. 2026-01-14
   price $165,000
5. 2026-01-09
   price $124,900
6. 2025-12-22
   listed $165,000 Active
7. 2025-12-19
   historical
8. 2025-11-18
   price $165,000
9. 2025-10-06
   listed $170,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,138 · $95/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,138 · $95/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,085
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,138
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,207
• − Management: −$1,207
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $269
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$65
• After-tax cash flow: $2,223/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jackson
• NCES district ID: 1200960
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $36,824
• Composite: 41.92/100
• National rank: #3358
• State rank: #39 of 73 in FL

Livability — Marianna

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #592
• US rank: #11318

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing C+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,880

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,095 people
• By 2030: 44,432 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 41,077 · -10.9%
• By 2050: 37,587 · -18.5%
• By 2075: 28,921 · -37.3%
• By 2100: 19,332 · -58.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Black 19% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+46.1) · D 26.7% · R 72.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -28.0pp · 2024: -46.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+46.1 2020: R+38.9 2016: R+37.4 2012: R+29.0 2008: R+28.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -66.55%
• Current HPI: 149.5793
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-26.5% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $125,000 CPARMLS
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $145,000 CPARMLS
• 2026-02-06 Price Changed $155,000 CPARMLS
• 2026-01-14 Price Changed $165,000 CPARMLS
• 2026-01-09 Price Changed $124,900 CPARMLS
• 2025-12-22 Listed $165,000 CPARMLS
• 2025-12-19 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2025-11-18 Price Changed $165,000 CPARMLS
• 2025-10-06 Listed $170,000 CPARMLS

Property tax history

+16.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,138 · -2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.