14310 Cedar Pine Ct · Houston, TX 77068

$319,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,618 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 106 Days on market

Built 2016 4,939 sqft lot Est $304k · 5% over $76/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +5.2/15.0
• Appreciation +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Nestled in a serene neighborhood, this charming property boasts 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a spacious backyard perfect for entertaining. The open floor plan and natural light create a warm and inviting atmosphere throughout the home. With modern updates and a convenient location near schools and parks, this property is ideal for families looking to settle in a peaceful community. Don't miss the opportunity to make this house your home. Contact me for more information.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Spacious backyard
• Modern updates

Tags

• SPACIOUS BACKYARD
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• MODERN UPDATES
• CONVENIENT LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $319k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($24k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $319k).
• Recommended offer: $290k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.9% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Spring ISD (suburban): math 19% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #730 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Pat Reynolds El (math 18% / reading 28%, grade F, #3,277 of 4,322 statewide, top 77%, 836 students, 86% FRL); Edwin M Wells Middle (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,616 of 1,662 statewide, top 97%, 907 students, 89% FRL); Westfield H S (math 13% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,507 of 1,632 statewide, top 93%, 2,574 students, 81% FRL) — zoned schools average 86% FRL vs 66% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 117 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.1%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-2.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $89k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($290k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $290,290 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.78% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.23%
• DSCR: 2.21
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $303,688
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4022 Streambed Trl	0.06mi	4/2.5	2,792 (+7%)	2mo	$325,000	$116	84
3915 Glenheather Dr	0.11mi	4/2.5	2,450 (-6%)	2mo	$319,900	$131	82
4215 False Cypress Ln	0.30mi	4/2.5	2,596 (-1%)	3mo	$285,000	$110	82
4206 Tulip Oak Dr	0.19mi	4/2.5	2,362 (-10%)	2mo	$310,000	$131	73
15007 Walters Rd	0.48mi	4/2.5	2,730 (+4%)	1mo	$279,900	$103	70
14543 Overland Hollow Dr	0.65mi	4/3.0	2,606 (-0%)	5mo	$334,900	$129	63
3614 Shanemoss Ct	0.51mi	4/2.5	2,852 (+9%)	2mo	$299,990	$105	60
4418 Windmill Run Dr	0.64mi	4/3.0	2,760 (+5%)	0mo	$332,000	$120	59
15406 Falling Creek Dr	0.50mi	4/2.5	2,950 (+13%)	3mo	$315,000	$107	53
4422 Windmill Run Dr	0.65mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,432 (-7%)	1mo	$299,900	$123	52
15418 Falling Creek Dr	0.50mi	4/2.0	2,254 (-14%)	4mo	$225,000	$100	48
4714 Cashel Castle Dr	0.73mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,362 (-10%)	1mo	$249,900	$106	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.14% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.95×
• Total profit: $85,130
• Equity at exit: $59,989

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.76×
• Total profit: $246,399
• Equity at exit: $49,405

Cash invested: $89,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77068

• Home prices YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 117
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,678 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,673
• Tax from tax record: −$577 /mo · $6,926/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$76
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,192
• Net cashflow: $1,960

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,197

Max offer price $319,000

Occupancy floor 60%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,750
• Closing costs: $9,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4622 Falling Sun Dr Houston, TX	4.0	3.0	2485	$2,500	$1.01	44d	1	0.73mi
4807 Wellington Way Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	2876	$2,500	$0.87	44d	1	0.93mi
5135 Westerham Pl Unit 1262307P Houston, TX	5.0	3.5	3358	$17,582	$5.24	22d	1	1.28mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $76 · $912/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-01
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-23
   status Pending
3. 2026-04-08
   price $319,000
4. 2026-03-05
   price $329,000
5. 2026-01-14
   listed $350,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,926 · $577/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,926 · $577/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $68,139
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,869
• − Property taxes: −$6,926
• − Insurance: −$2,392
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,451
• − Management: −$5,451
• − HOA: −$912
• − Depreciation: −$9,280
• Taxable income: $19,857
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,766
• After-tax cash flow: $18,759/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Spring ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841220
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,584
• Composite: 20.12/100
• National rank: #8643
• State rank: #730 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 3,226,434
• Population (ZIP): 12,289

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 35% Black 31% White 23% Two or more races 11% Asian 6% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Scandinavian 2% Romanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 28% Vietnamese 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.14%
• Current HPI: 206.5475
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-8.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-23 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $319,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $329,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-14 Listed $350,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,926 · -3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.