402 Arsenal St · Watertown, NY 13601

$90,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,119 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 61 Days on market

Built 1915 1,750 sqft lot $80/sqft · 44% below area Est $161k · 44% under ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.4/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Affordable home in the City of Watertown offering strong potential and a highly functional layout. The first floor features a spacious front living room, a welcoming front entrance porch, and a large kitchen that flows nicely into the main living space. Tall ceilings and classic woodwork throughout add character that’s hard to find at this price point. This home offers 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, with one full bath conveniently located on each level. All three bedrooms are well-positioned on the second floor, providing a practical separation of living and sleeping space. While the home is in need of cosmetic updates, the fundamentals are solid. Currently nearly fully carpeted, the interior presents an excellent opportunity to modernize with updated flooring such as luxury vinyl plank and bring your own style to life. The basement has been fully cleared and has remained dry even in the wettest of months, offering clean, usable storage space or additional use. Situated directly on Arsenal Street, this property is as centrally located as it gets—placing you right in the middle of Watertown’s main corridor with immediate access to shopping, restaurants, and everyday conveniences. With the right vision and improvements, this property could be transformed into a great owner-occupied home or a smart investment opportunity.

Key facts

• Second floor
• Front entrance porch
• Tall ceilings

Tags

• FRONT LIVING ROOM
• FRONT ENTRANCE PORCH
• LARGE KITCHEN
• TALL CEILINGS
• CLASSIC WOODWORK
• SECOND FLOOR

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $437 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $85k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.1% vs local median 6.3% in Watertown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#540 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living A-, housing A-; Watch: amenities C-, schools D, crime F.
• Watertown City School District (urban): math 34% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #481 of 590 in NY (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.0%/yr); 224 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 196 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($85k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1915 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $84,600 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1915 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.44% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.80%
• DSCR: 1.93
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $160,819
• List price: $90,000
• Delta: -44.04%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
212 S Meadow	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,240 (+11%)	6mo	$100,000	$81	66
472 Portage St	0.54mi	3/1.0	1,144 (+2%)	5mo	$40,000	$35	65
333 S Meadow St	0.31mi	3/1.0	1,266 (+13%)	1mo	$150,000	$118	60
653 Thompson St	0.66mi	3/1.5	1,164 (+4%)	3mo	$160,700	$138	60
467 S Massey St	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,020 (-9%)	0mo	$207,000	$203	59
862 W Main St	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,137 (+2%)	8mo	$191,450	$168	57
516 Dimmick St	0.53mi	3/1.0	1,056 (-6%)	9mo	$185,000	$175	56
706 Lawrence St	0.54mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,077 (-4%)	9mo	$205,000	$190	54
509 Plum Ave	0.58mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,200 (+7%)	4mo	$102,500	$85	53
207 Cedar St	0.34mi	3/1.0	1,274 (+14%)	10mo	$205,000	$161	50
508 Pine St	0.53mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,008 (-10%)	3mo	$196,760	$195	49
463 Paddock St	0.62mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,248 (+12%)	3mo	$279,000	$224	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.80×
• Total profit: $20,058
• Equity at exit: $13,419

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.35×
• Total profit: $84,357
• Equity at exit: $7,782

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13601

• Home prices YoY: -5.6%
• Rents YoY: 10.0%
• Active inventory: 224
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,293 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax from tax record: −$75 /mo · $899/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$271
• Net cashflow: $437

Break-even live

Break-even rent $740

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 61%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $488	-5% $462	+0% $437	+5% $411	+10% $386
Rent	-10% $335	-5% $386	+0% $437	+5% $488	+10% $539
Rate	-1.0pp $482	-0.5pp $460	base $437	+0.5pp $413	+1.0pp $390

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
136 N Meadow St Unit A Watertown, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$995	$0.99	45d	1	0.05mi
159 Mullin St Unit 2 Watertown, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$1,200	$1.33	45d	1	0.47mi
611 Cooper St Watertown, NY	3.0	1.0	1190	$1,495	$1.26	45d	1	0.64mi
328 Clay St Unit 3 Watertown, NY	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,650	$1.10	45d	1	0.70mi
207 Wealtha Ave Watertown, NY	2.0–4.0	1.0–2.5	1435	$1,500	$1.04	45d	9	0.90mi
311 High St Watertown, NY	2.0	1.0	851	$1,200	$1.41	45d	1	0.91mi
123 State Pl Watertown, NY	3.0	1.5	1500	$1,750	$1.17	45d	1	0.97mi
720 Cadwell St Watertown, NY	2.0	1.5	1300	$995	$0.77	45d	1	1.08mi
816 Boyd St Unit 1 Watertown, NY	2.0	1.0	980	$1,500	$1.53	45d	1	1.15mi
911 State St Unit 3 Watertown, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$995	$0.83	45d	1	1.20mi
927 State St Watertown, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$1,000	$1.11	45d	1	1.23mi
1029 Gill St Watertown, NY	3.0	1.0	1275	$1,950	$1.53	45d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $90,000 Active 61 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $90,000 Active 59 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $90,000 Active 58 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $90,000 Active 57 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $90,000 Active 56 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $90,000 Active 55 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $90,000 Active 53 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $90,000 Active 52 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $90,000 Active 49 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $90,000 Active 48 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $90,000 Active 47 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $99,400 Active 44 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,400 Active 43 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,400 Active 42 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,400 Active 41 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,400 Active 40 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $99,400 Active 39 DOM
18. 2026-05-06
    price $99,900 1360-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1360 chars)

    Affordable home in the City of Watertown offering strong potential and a highly functional layout. The first floor features a spacious front living room, a welcoming front entrance porch, and a large kitchen that flows nicely into the main living space. Tall ceilings and classic woodwork throughout add character that’s hard to find at this price point. This home offers 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, with one full bath conveniently located on each level. All three bedrooms are well-positioned on the second floor, providing a practical separation of living and sleeping space. While the home is in need of cosmetic updates, the fundamentals are solid. Currently nearly fully carpeted, the interior presents an excellent opportunity to modernize with updated flooring such as luxury vinyl plank and bring your own style to life. The basement has been fully cleared and has remained dry even in the wettest of months, offering clean, usable storage space or additional use. Situated directly on Arsenal Street, this property is as centrally located as it gets—placing you right in the middle of Watertown’s main corridor with immediate access to shopping, restaurants, and everyday conveniences. With the right vision and improvements, this property could be transformed into a great owner-occupied home or a smart investment opportunity.

19. 2026-04-21
    listed $120,000 Active 1360-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1360 chars)

    Affordable home in the City of Watertown offering strong potential and a highly functional layout. The first floor features a spacious front living room, a welcoming front entrance porch, and a large kitchen that flows nicely into the main living space. Tall ceilings and classic woodwork throughout add character that’s hard to find at this price point. This home offers 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, with one full bath conveniently located on each level. All three bedrooms are well-positioned on the second floor, providing a practical separation of living and sleeping space. While the home is in need of cosmetic updates, the fundamentals are solid. Currently nearly fully carpeted, the interior presents an excellent opportunity to modernize with updated flooring such as luxury vinyl plank and bring your own style to life. The basement has been fully cleared and has remained dry even in the wettest of months, offering clean, usable storage space or additional use. Situated directly on Arsenal Street, this property is as centrally located as it gets—placing you right in the middle of Watertown’s main corridor with immediate access to shopping, restaurants, and everyday conveniences. With the right vision and improvements, this property could be transformed into a great owner-occupied home or a smart investment opportunity.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $899 · $75/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,210 · $101/mo
• Expected delta: +$311/yr (+$26/mo · 34.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,510
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$899
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,241
• − Management: −$1,241
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $4,020
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$965
• After-tax cash flow: $4,276/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Watertown City School District
• NCES district ID: 3630120
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▲ 12.00%
• Median HH income: $40,919
• Composite: 36.86/100
• National rank: #4551
• State rank: #481 of 590 in NY

Livability — Watertown

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #540
• US rank: #9700

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A- Crime F Employment D- Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Watertown, NY
• County: Jefferson County · 47,417 people
• City population: 36,839
• Metro: Watertown-Fort Drum, NY
• Population (ZIP): 36,839
• Household income: $58,791
• Rent vs Own: 51.4% rent · 48.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1634.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 111,748 people
• By 2030: 109,370 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 103,828 · -7.1%
• By 2050: 98,523 · -11.8%
• By 2075: 91,422 · -18.2%
• By 2100: 78,214 · -30.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 7% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.6) · D 38.2% · R 61.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.3pp toward R · 2008: -5.3pp · 2024: -23.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.6 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+22.4 2012: R+2.9 2008: R+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -18.86%
• Current HPI: 316.636
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.96%
• Metro: Watertown-Fort Drum, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-16.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $99,900 CNYIS
• 2026-04-21 Listed $120,000 CNYIS

Property tax history

+18.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $899 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.