402 Arsenal St · Watertown, NY 13601

$80,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,119 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1915 Fair condition 1,750 sqft lot $71/sqft · 51% below area ↓ 33% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Affordable home in the City of Watertown offering strong potential and a highly functional layout. The first floor features a spacious front living room, a welcoming front entrance porch, and a large kitchen that flows nicely into the main living space. Tall ceilings and classic woodwork throughout add character that’s hard to find at this price point. This home offers 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, with one full bath conveniently located on each level. All three bedrooms are well-positioned on the second floor, providing a practical separation of living and sleeping space. While the home is in need of cosmetic updates, the fundamentals are solid.

Key facts

• Second floor
• Front entrance porch
• Tall ceilings

Tags

• FRONT LIVING ROOM
• FRONT ENTRANCE PORCH
• LARGE KITCHEN
• TALL CEILINGS
• CLASSIC WOODWORK
• SECOND FLOOR

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $80k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $492 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.7% vs local median 6.1% in Watertown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#540 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living A-, housing A-; Watch: amenities C-, crime F, commute F.
• Watertown City School District (urban): math 34% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #481 of 590 in NY (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sherman School (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #1,195 of 2,108 statewide, top 60%, 320 students, 57% FRL); Case Middle School (math 17% / reading 41%, grade F, #566 of 729 statewide, top 78%, 626 students, 70% FRL); Watertown Senior High School (math 89% / reading 92%, grade A+, #231 of 1,100 statewide, top 21%, 1,083 students, 65% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.0%/yr); 294 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 93d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 196 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $553 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1915 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $78,800 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Built in 1915 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.62% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.36%
• DSCR: 2.17
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $162,418
• List price: $80,000
• Delta: -50.74%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
212 S Meadow	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,240 (+11%)	7mo	$100,000	$81	65
472 Portage St	0.54mi	3/1.0	1,144 (+2%)	6mo	$40,000	$35	64
333 S Meadow St	0.31mi	3/1.0	1,266 (+13%)	3mo	$150,000	$118	59
653 Thompson St	0.66mi	3/1.5	1,164 (+4%)	5mo	$160,700	$138	58
467 S Massey St	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,020 (-9%)	2mo	$207,000	$203	58
862 W Main St	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,137 (+2%)	9mo	$191,450	$168	56
516 Dimmick St	0.53mi	3/1.0	1,056 (-6%)	11mo	$185,000	$175	55
706 Lawrence St	0.54mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,077 (-4%)	11mo	$205,000	$190	53
509 Plum Ave	0.58mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,200 (+7%)	5mo	$102,500	$85	52
207 Cedar St	0.34mi	3/1.0	1,274 (+14%)	12mo	$205,000	$161	49
508 Pine St	0.53mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,008 (-10%)	5mo	$196,760	$195	48
463 Paddock St	0.62mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,248 (+12%)	5mo	$279,000	$224	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.13×
• Total profit: $25,206
• Equity at exit: $11,928

10-year hold

• IRR: 36.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.17×
• Total profit: $93,405
• Equity at exit: $6,917

Cash invested: $22,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 17 active · 12 under contract
• Months of supply: 7.3 mo (14%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $159,900 ($137/sqft)
• Median days on market: 45 d
• This list price: 18% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +6.2% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 13601

• Home prices YoY: -5.6%
• Rents YoY: 10.0%
• Active inventory: 294
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,293 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax from tax record: −$76 /mo · $915/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$271
• Net cashflow: $492

Break-even live

Break-even rent $670

Max offer price $80,000

Occupancy floor 57%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $537	-5% $515	+0% $492	+5% $469	+10% $447
Rent	-10% $390	-5% $441	+0% $492	+5% $543	+10% $594
Rate	-1.0pp $532	-0.5pp $512	base $492	+0.5pp $471	+1.0pp $450

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,000
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
136 N Meadow St Unit A Watertown, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$995	$0.99	93d	1	0.05mi
159 Mullin St Unit 2 Watertown, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$1,200	$1.33	93d	1	0.47mi
611 Cooper St Watertown, NY	3.0	1.0	1190	$1,495	$1.26	93d	1	0.64mi
328 Clay St Unit 3 Watertown, NY	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,650	$1.10	93d	1	0.70mi
207 Wealtha Ave Watertown, NY	2.0–4.0	1.0–2.5	1435	$1,500	$1.04	93d	9	0.90mi
311 High St Watertown, NY	2.0	1.0	851	$1,200	$1.41	93d	1	0.91mi
123 State Pl Watertown, NY	3.0	1.5	1500	$1,750	$1.17	93d	1	0.97mi
720 Cadwell St Watertown, NY	2.0	1.5	1300	$995	$0.77	93d	1	1.08mi
816 Boyd St Unit 1 Watertown, NY	2.0	1.0	980	$1,500	$1.53	93d	1	1.15mi
911 State St Unit 3 Watertown, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$995	$0.83	93d	1	1.20mi
927 State St Watertown, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$1,000	$1.11	93d	1	1.23mi
1029 Gill St Watertown, NY	3.0	1.0	1275	$1,950	$1.53	93d	1	1.35mi

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public water connectedSewer connected
• Home design: Two-story existing home
• Construction: Vinyl sidingBlock and stone foundationBuilt as existing structure
• Exterior features: Blacktop drivewayEnclosed porchPorchIrregular lotNear public transitResidential settingRoad frontage on city street and main thoroughfareLot dimensions approximately 35 x 50

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric ovenElectric rangeRefrigerator
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 8
• Flooring: CarpetVinylVaried flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 main level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced air heating
• Interior features: DenEntrance foyerSeparate/formal living roomKitchen/family room comboLiving/dining roomFull basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in basementGas water heater

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $80,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $80,000 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $80,000 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $80,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $80,000 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $80,000 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $80,000 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $80,000 Active 8 DOM
9. 2026-07-29
   days on market $80,000 Active 7 DOM
10. 2026-07-27
    days on market $80,000 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-07-25
    days on market $80,000 Active 3 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on marketlisting id $80,000 Active 1 DOM
13. 2026-07-18
    days on market $80,000 Active 88 DOM
14. 2026-07-16
    days on market $80,000 Active 86 DOM
15. 2026-07-16
    days on market $80,000 Active 85 DOM
16. 2026-07-14
    days on market $80,000 Active 84 DOM
17. 2026-07-13
    days on market $80,000 Active 83 DOM
18. 2026-07-12
    days on market $80,000 Active 82 DOM
19. 2026-07-11
    days on market $80,000 Active 81 DOM
20. 2026-07-10
    days on market $80,000 Active 80 DOM
21. 2026-07-09
    days on market $80,000 Active 79 DOM
22. 2026-07-08
    days on market $80,000 Active 78 DOM
23. 2026-07-07
    days on market $80,000 Active 77 DOM
24. 2026-07-06
    days on market $80,000 Active 76 DOM
25. 2026-07-05
    days on market $80,000 Active 75 DOM
26. 2026-07-04
    days on market $80,000 Active 74 DOM
27. 2026-07-03
    days on market $80,000 Active 73 DOM
28. 2026-07-02
    days on market $80,000 Active 72 DOM
29. 2026-07-02
    price $80,000 Active 71 DOM
30. 2026-07-01
    days on market $90,000 Active 71 DOM
31. 2026-06-30
    days on market $90,000 Active 70 DOM
32. 2026-06-29
    days on market $90,000 Active 69 DOM
33. 2026-06-28
    days on market $90,000 Active 68 DOM
34. 2026-06-27
    days on market $90,000 Active 67 DOM
35. 2026-06-26
    days on market $90,000 Active 65 DOM
36. 2026-06-22
    days on market $90,000 Active 62 DOM
37. 2026-06-21
    days on market $90,000 Active 61 DOM
38. 2026-06-19
    days on market $90,000 Active 59 DOM
39. 2026-06-18
    days on market $90,000 Active 58 DOM
40. 2026-06-17
    days on market $90,000 Active 57 DOM
41. 2026-06-16
    days on market $90,000 Active 56 DOM
42. 2026-06-15
    days on market $90,000 Active 55 DOM
43. 2026-06-14
    days on market $90,000 Active 53 DOM
44. 2026-06-12
    days on market $90,000 Active 52 DOM
45. 2026-06-09
    days on market $90,000 Active 49 DOM
46. 2026-06-08
    days on market $90,000 Active 48 DOM
47. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $90,000 Active 47 DOM
48. 2026-06-05
    days on market $99,400 Active 44 DOM
49. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,400 Active 43 DOM
50. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,400 Active 42 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $915 · $76/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,134 · $94/mo
• Expected delta: +$218/yr (+$18/mo · 23.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,510
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$915
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,241
• − Management: −$1,241
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable income: $4,905
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,177
• After-tax cash flow: $4,726/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Fair 45/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $5,595–$16,785 screening

This home requires cosmetic updates, including painting the exterior siding and landscaping, to improve its resale and rental value.

Deferred maintenance Est. $30,000–$90,000 screening

• Major Roof (roof) — The roof appears to be in poor condition with visible damage and missing shingles.
• Major Windows (windows) — The windows show signs of wear and potential damage, indicating a need for replacement.
• Major Exterior (exterior) — The siding is peeling and damaged, requiring repair or replacement.

Repairs flagged

• Major Exterior siding — Severe weathering and staining
• Major Landscaping — Overgrown and unkempt
• Major HVAC/mechanicals — No visible photos to assess condition

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and property value ↑
• Rental Trim and landscape — Well-maintained landscaping improves rental appeal ↑
• Both Service HVAC — A functional HVAC system ensures comfort and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 56/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Sherman School D- NY #1,195/2,108 Nat'l #14,504/41,679 Middle Case Middle School F NY #566/729 Nat'l #9,290/14,009 High Watertown Senior High School A+ NY #231/1,100 Nat'l #375/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Watertown City School District
• NCES district ID: 3630120
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▲ 12.00%
• Median HH income: $40,919
• Composite: 36.86/100
• National rank: #4551
• State rank: #481 of 590 in NY

C Composite livability gradescore 68/100

Livability — Watertown

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #540
• US rank: #9700

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A- Crime F Employment D- Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Watertown, NY
• County: Jefferson County · 111,748 people
• City population: 36,839
• Metro: Watertown-Fort Drum, NY
• Population (ZIP): 36,839
• Household income: $58,791
• Rent vs Own: 51.4% rent · 48.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 12% of renters

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Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 111,748 people
• By 2030: 109,370 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 103,828 · -7.1%
• By 2050: 98,523 · -11.8%
• By 2075: 91,422 · -18.2%
• By 2100: 78,214 · -30.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 7% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.6) · D 38.2% · R 61.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.3pp toward R · 2008: -5.3pp · 2024: -23.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.6 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+22.4 2012: R+2.9 2008: R+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -18.86%
• Current HPI: 316.636
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.96%
• Metro: Watertown-Fort Drum, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public water connectedSewer connected
• Home design: Two-story existing home
• Construction: Vinyl sidingBlock and stone foundationBuilt as existing structure
• Exterior features: Blacktop drivewayEnclosed porchPorchIrregular lotNear public transitResidential settingRoad frontage on city street and main thoroughfareLot dimensions approximately 35 x 50

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric ovenElectric rangeRefrigerator
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 8
• Flooring: CarpetVinylVaried flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 main level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced air heating
• Interior features: DenEntrance foyerSeparate/formal living roomKitchen/family room comboLiving/dining roomFull basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in basementGas water heater

Price history

-33.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-07-22 Listed $80,000 CNYIS
• 2026-07-20 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2026-07-01 Price Changed $80,000 CNYIS
• 2026-06-06 Price Changed $90,000 CNYIS
• 2026-05-28 Price Changed $99,400 CNYIS
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $99,900 CNYIS
• 2026-04-21 Listed $120,000 CNYIS

Property tax history

+18.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $915 · +3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.