2352 Joe Bald Rd · Kimberling City, MO 65686

$249,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,669 sqft · Other · 54 Days on market

Built 1963 0.74 ac lot $149/sqft · 24% below area Est $326k · 24% under ↓ 33% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.1/30.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

HOME WITH BIG SHOP! This free-spirited retreat on Joe Bald Road offers the perfect blend of charm, functionality, and laid-back lake living. Sitting on . 74 acres of unrestricted land, this updated and well-maintained 3-bedroom, 1-bath home is full of character with cozy, welcoming spaces and an oversized kitchen featuring a dining area and fireplace--perfect for a hearth room vibe. Whether you're dreaming of a hobby farm, weekend lake escape, or full-time residence with room to breathe, this property delivers. The huge 30x50 shop is insulated (R19 walls, R30 ceiling) and already has plumbing run with a bathroom roughed in--just needs final hookup--making it ideal for projects, storage, or housing all your lake toys. The deck and open outdoor space are perfect for gardening, animals, or simply enjoying the peaceful setting. With lake access just minutes away and no HOA or restrictions, this is a rare opportunity at an affordable price point. Properties with this much freedom and versatility don't last--schedule your showing today before it's gone!

Key facts

• Open outdoor space
• Oversized kitchen
• Updated home

Tags

• UNRESTRICTED LAND
• UPDATED HOME
• OVERSIZED KITCHEN
• LAKE ACCESS
• OPEN OUTDOOR SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $249k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-148 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $223k (10.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $166k (33.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $166k (33.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 1.6% in Kimberling City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#162 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D, employment D.
• Reeds Spring R-IV (rural): math 34% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #182 of 324 in MO (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 288 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 191 units permitted in Stone County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Stone County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $165,762 (33.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.58%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.54%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 12.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $326,192
• List price: $249,000
• Delta: -23.66%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-49,884
• Equity at exit: $37,127

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-56,097
• Equity at exit: $21,529

Cash invested: $69,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65686

• Home prices YoY: -31.2%
• Active inventory: 288
• Price-to-rent: 12.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,658 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax from tax record: −$48 /mo · $571/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$348
• Net cashflow: $-148

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,844

Max offer price $222,932

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-7	-5% $-77	+0% $-148	+5% $-218	+10% $-289
Rent	-10% $-279	-5% $-213	+0% $-148	+5% $-82	+10% $-17
Rate	-1.0pp $-22	-0.5pp $-84	base $-148	+0.5pp $-212	+1.0pp $-278

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,250
• Closing costs: $7,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12056 Missouri 13 Unit B Kimberling City, MO	2.0	2.0	1450	$1,250	$0.86	44d	1	1.27mi
10 C St Unit A Kimberling City, MO	2.0	2.0	1140	$1,750	$1.54	44d	1	1.35mi
8 C St Unit B Kimberling City, MO	2.0	2.0	1140	$1,750	$1.54	44d	1	1.35mi
6 C St Unit A Kimberling City, MO	2.0	2.0	1140	$1,750	$1.54	44d	1	1.35mi
4 C St Unit B Kimberling City, MO	2.0	2.0	1140	$1,750	$1.54	44d	1	1.35mi
2 C St Unit B Kimberling City, MO	2.0	2.0	1140	$1,750	$1.54	44d	1	1.35mi
3 Kimberling Blvd Unit A Kimberling City, MO	2.0	2.0	1140	$1,750	$1.54	44d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $249,000 Active 54 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,000 Active 53 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,000 Active 52 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,000 Active 51 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,000 Active 50 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $249,000 Active 48 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $249,000 Active 47 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,000 Active 44 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $249,000 Active 43 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $249,000 Active 42 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $249,000 Active 39 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,000 Active 38 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,000 Active 37 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,000 Active 36 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,000 Active 35 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $249,000 Active 34 DOM
17. 2026-05-13
    status Pending 1063-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1063 chars)

    HOME WITH BIG SHOP! This free-spirited retreat on Joe Bald Road offers the perfect blend of charm, functionality, and laid-back lake living. Sitting on . 74 acres of unrestricted land, this updated and well-maintained 3-bedroom, 1-bath home is full of character with cozy, welcoming spaces and an oversized kitchen featuring a dining area and fireplace--perfect for a hearth room vibe. Whether you're dreaming of a hobby farm, weekend lake escape, or full-time residence with room to breathe, this property delivers. The huge 30x50 shop is insulated (R19 walls, R30 ceiling) and already has plumbing run with a bathroom roughed in--just needs final hookup--making it ideal for projects, storage, or housing all your lake toys. The deck and open outdoor space are perfect for gardening, animals, or simply enjoying the peaceful setting. With lake access just minutes away and no HOA or restrictions, this is a rare opportunity at an affordable price point. Properties with this much freedom and versatility don't last--schedule your showing today before it's gone!

18. 2026-04-17
    listed $249,000 Active 1063-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1063 chars)

    HOME WITH BIG SHOP! This free-spirited retreat on Joe Bald Road offers the perfect blend of charm, functionality, and laid-back lake living. Sitting on . 74 acres of unrestricted land, this updated and well-maintained 3-bedroom, 1-bath home is full of character with cozy, welcoming spaces and an oversized kitchen featuring a dining area and fireplace--perfect for a hearth room vibe. Whether you're dreaming of a hobby farm, weekend lake escape, or full-time residence with room to breathe, this property delivers. The huge 30x50 shop is insulated (R19 walls, R30 ceiling) and already has plumbing run with a bathroom roughed in--just needs final hookup--making it ideal for projects, storage, or housing all your lake toys. The deck and open outdoor space are perfect for gardening, animals, or simply enjoying the peaceful setting. With lake access just minutes away and no HOA or restrictions, this is a rare opportunity at an affordable price point. Properties with this much freedom and versatility don't last--schedule your showing today before it's gone!

19. 2023-09-01
    historical
20. 2023-08-30
    status Active
21. 2023-08-09
    historical
22. 2023-05-15
    listed $249,900 Active
23. 2023-04-17
    price $285,500
24. 2023-04-12
    status Active
25. 2023-03-21
    historical
26. 2023-03-08
    listed $349,900 Active
27. 2023-01-01
    historical
28. 2022-11-08
    price $269,900
29. 2022-10-06
    price $294,900
30. 2022-09-17
    price $334,900
31. 2022-06-22
    listed $369,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $571 · $48/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,415 · $201/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,845/yr (+$154/mo · 323.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,891
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,948
• − Property taxes: −$571
• − Insurance: −$1,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,591
• − Management: −$1,591
• − Depreciation: −$7,244
• Taxable loss: −$6,298
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,512
• After-tax cash flow: $-259/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Reeds Spring R-IV
• NCES district ID: 2926160
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $42,158
• Composite: 32.06/100
• National rank: #5819
• State rank: #182 of 324 in MO

Livability — Kimberling City

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #162
• US rank: #8879

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,487

Population outlook (Stone County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,147 people
• By 2030: 26,405 · -6.2%
• By 2040: 22,762 · -19.1%
• By 2050: 19,706 · -30.0%
• By 2075: 14,742 · -47.6%
• By 2100: 10,832 · -61.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Stone

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.4) · D 18.9% · R 80.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.1pp toward R · 2008: -37.3pp · 2024: -61.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.4 2020: R+61.1 2016: R+62.1 2012: R+49.2 2008: R+37.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -90.17%
• Current HPI: 198.5699
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-32.7% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Pending — SOMO
• 2026-04-17 Listed $249,000 SOMO
• 2023-09-01 Delisted — SOMO
• 2023-08-30 Relisted — SOMO
• 2023-08-09 Delisted — SOMO
• 2023-05-15 Listed $249,900 SOMO
• 2023-04-17 Price Changed $285,500 SOMO
• 2023-04-12 Relisted — SOMO
• 2023-03-21 Delisted — SOMO
• 2023-03-08 Listed $349,900 SOMO
• 2023-01-01 Delisted — SOMO
• 2022-11-08 Price Changed $269,900 SOMO
• 2022-10-06 Price Changed $294,900 SOMO
• 2022-09-17 Price Changed $334,900 SOMO
• 2022-06-22 Listed $369,900 SOMO

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $571 · -0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.