18711 Maryland Hwy · Swanton, MD 21561

$125,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,048 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 113 Days on market

Built 1950 9.82 ac lot $61/sqft · 47% below area Est $236k · 47% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.4/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is an estate listing to be sold As-Is. The personal representative is in the process of removing items of personal property from the dwelling, that is why there are no interior photos are included. The dwelling was built in 1950 has extensive deferred maintenance and will require major renovation. The 9.82 acre parcel is on Backbone Mountain and has a panoramic view of West Virginia to the East. The parcel is located outside of zoning which opens up many possibilities. The parcel levels off towards the top and has good potential for further development. Contact the listing agent for interior showings of the dwelling.

Key facts

• Panoramic view
• Backbone mountain
• 9.82 acre parcel

Tags

• 9.82 ACRE PARCEL
• PANORAMIC VIEW
• BACKBONE MOUNTAIN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $178 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $114k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 47/100 on livability (#465 in MD) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Garrett County Public Schools (rural): math 17% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #16 of 24 in MD (top 67%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 65 active listings in the ZIP; 122 units permitted in Garrett County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Garrett County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 113 days — a 9% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $113,750 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 113 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.11%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $235,817
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: -46.99%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
494 Lee Rd	0.52mi	4/3.0	2,000 (-2%)	22mo	$230,000	$115	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.27×
• Total profit: $79,452
• Equity at exit: $112,610

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.0%
• Equity multiple: 7.43×
• Total profit: $225,084
• Equity at exit: $242,848

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21561

• Home prices YoY: 8.8%
• Active inventory: 65
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,319 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$156 /mo · $1,875/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$277
• Net cashflow: $178

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,093

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $265	-5% $221	+0% $178	+5% $135	+10% $92
Rent	-10% $74	-5% $126	+0% $178	+5% $230	+10% $282
Rate	-1.0pp $241	-0.5pp $210	base $178	+0.5pp $146	+1.0pp $113

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-02-02
   listed $125,000 Active 629-char remark

   Show marketing remark (629 chars)

   This is an estate listing to be sold As-Is. The personal representative is in the process of removing items of personal property from the dwelling, that is why there are no interior photos are included. The dwelling was built in 1950 has extensive deferred maintenance and will require major renovation. The 9.82 acre parcel is on Backbone Mountain and has a panoramic view of West Virginia to the East. The parcel is located outside of zoning which opens up many possibilities. The parcel levels off towards the top and has good potential for further development. Contact the listing agent for interior showings of the dwelling.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,830
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,875
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,266
• − Management: −$1,266
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $159
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$38
• After-tax cash flow: $2,101/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Garrett County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400360
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $45,705
• Composite: 20.36/100
• National rank: #8600
• State rank: #16 of 24 in MD

Livability — Swanton

• Score: 47/100
• State rank: #465
• US rank: #26277

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,662

Population outlook (Garrett County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,304 people
• By 2030: 27,248 · -3.7%
• By 2040: 24,596 · -13.1%
• By 2050: 21,703 · -23.3%
• By 2075: 15,766 · -44.3%
• By 2100: 11,363 · -59.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Serbian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · German/W. Germanic 5% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Garrett

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+54.0) · D 21.9% · R 75.9% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.9pp toward R · 2008: -40.1pp · 2024: -54.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+54.0 2020: R+55.9 2016: R+61.5 2012: R+52.1 2008: R+40.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 33.23%
• Current HPI: 411.0905
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-02 Listed $125,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

-9.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $128 · -80.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.