1 Sunrise · Desert Hills, AZ 92363

$169,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Manufactured public records · 133 Days on market

Built 1975 8,400 sqft lot ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.8/10.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Experience this gated Havasu Lake estate, with beautiful views of the mountains and lake. Surrounded by mature oleanders, this property features parking for four boats and five cars with an attached garage. The home is turn-key, sleeping ten people and including all furniture, a poker table, and kitchen supplies. Recent updates include renovated bathrooms, a recoated roof, a newer refrigerator, and smart home tech like a misting system, LED perimeter lighting, and a smart thermostat. Located just minutes from grocery, gas, and hardware store.

Key facts

• Renovated bathrooms
• Gated estate
• Smart home tech

Tags

• GATED ESTATE
• PARKING FOR FOUR BOATS
• RENOVATED BATHROOMS
• SMART HOME TECH
• MISTING SYSTEM
• LED PERIMETER LIGHTING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $169k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $118 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $163k (3.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $149k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 2.0% in Desert Hills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#65 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D+, employment D.
• Needles Unified (town): math 22% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #1,194 of 1,400 in CA (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (1.6% local appreciation)).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (1.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $47k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 133 days — a 12% lower offer ($149k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $148,720 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 133 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.99%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.64% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.34×
• Total profit: $16,094
• Equity at exit: $63,432

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.32×
• Total profit: $62,350
• Equity at exit: $88,927

Cash invested: $47,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92363

• Home prices YoY: 0.6%
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,628 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$211 /mo · $2,535/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$342
• Net cashflow: $118

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,478

Max offer price $169,000

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,250
• Closing costs: $5,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $169,000 Active 133 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,000 Active 132 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,000 Active 131 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,000 Active 130 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,000 Active 129 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $169,000 Active 127 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,000 Active 126 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $169,000 Active 124 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,000 Active 123 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $169,000 Active 122 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $169,000 Active 121 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $169,000 Active 118 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $169,000 Active 116 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,000 Active 115 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,000 Active 114 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $169,000 Active 113 DOM
17. 2026-04-16
    price $169,000 548-char remark

    Show marketing remark (548 chars)

    Experience this gated Havasu Lake estate, with beautiful views of the mountains and lake. Surrounded by mature oleanders, this property features parking for four boats and five cars with an attached garage. The home is turn-key, sleeping ten people and including all furniture, a poker table, and kitchen supplies. Recent updates include renovated bathrooms, a recoated roof, a newer refrigerator, and smart home tech like a misting system, LED perimeter lighting, and a smart thermostat. Located just minutes from grocery, gas, and hardware store.

18. 2026-02-06
    listed $179,900 Active 548-char remark

    Show marketing remark (548 chars)

    Experience this gated Havasu Lake estate, with beautiful views of the mountains and lake. Surrounded by mature oleanders, this property features parking for four boats and five cars with an attached garage. The home is turn-key, sleeping ten people and including all furniture, a poker table, and kitchen supplies. Recent updates include renovated bathrooms, a recoated roof, a newer refrigerator, and smart home tech like a misting system, LED perimeter lighting, and a smart thermostat. Located just minutes from grocery, gas, and hardware store.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥117°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,533
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,467
• − Property taxes: −$2,535
• − Insurance: −$845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,563
• − Management: −$1,563
• − Depreciation: −$4,916
• Taxable loss: −$1,355
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$325
• After-tax cash flow: $1,741/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Needles Unified
• NCES district ID: 0626760
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $31,795
• Composite: 23.35/100
• National rank: #13305
• State rank: #1194 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Desert Hills

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #65
• US rank: #11043

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,392

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 16% Native American 11% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Iranian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 9% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.64%
• Current HPI: 279.7931
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-6.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $169,000 CRMLS
• 2026-02-06 Listed $179,900 CRMLS

Property tax history

-2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $140 · -0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.