2215 Bronze Bay Dr · Missouri City, TX 77459

$278,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,748 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 73 Days on market

Built 2020 Fair condition 5,749 sqft lot $159/sqft · 12% below area Est $315k · 12% under $37/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.8/15.0
• Cash flow +6.4/30.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• DSCR +0.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this charming property located in a desirable neighborhood. This spacious home features three bedrooms, two bathrooms, a modern kitchen, and a cozy living area perfect for entertaining. The backyard is ideal for outdoor activities and relaxation. Enjoy the convenience of nearby shops, restaurants, and parks. Don't miss out on this opportunity. Washer, dryer, and refrigerator are included. New grass will be installed in the front yard upon tenant move-in.

Key facts

• Nearby shops
• Backyard
• Cozy living area

Tags

• MODERN KITCHEN
• COZY LIVING AREA
• BACKYARD
• NEARBY SHOPS
• NEARBY RESTAURANTS
• NEARBY PARKS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $278k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-486 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $192k (30.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $232k (16.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $192k (30.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#526 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Palmer El (math 40% / reading 54%, grade D-, #1,006 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 744 students, 54% FRL); Lake Olympia Middle (math 18% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,279 of 1,662 statewide, top 78%, 1,170 students, 71% FRL); Fort Bend Co Alter (26 students, 0% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 36% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Fort Bend ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 1229 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.7%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($261k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $37k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $192,109 (30.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.50%
• DSCR: 0.67
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $315,063
• List price: $278,000
• Delta: -11.76%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2215 Bronze Bay Dr	0.00mi	3/2.5	1,748 (0%)	1mo	$278,000	$159	98
1143 Cedar Place Ln	0.40mi	3/2.5	1,727 (-1%)	1mo	$319,640	$185	77
1111 Cedar Place Ln	0.44mi	3/2.5	1,727 (-1%)	1mo	$288,490	$167	75
1122 Cedar Place Ln	0.44mi	3/2.5	1,727 (-1%)	1mo	$310,840	$180	74
1130 Cedar Place Ln	0.43mi	3/2.5	1,703 (-3%)	1mo	$285,290	$168	73
3322 Aldridge Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,733 (-1%)	2mo	$239,000	$138	71
1103 Cedar Place Ln	0.45mi	3/2.5	1,853 (+6%)	1mo	$327,090	$177	66
1126 Cedar Place Ln	0.44mi	3/2.5	1,853 (+6%)	2mo	$317,940	$172	66
3946 Canyon Shore Ln	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,875 (+7%)	0mo	$330,000	$176	64
1134 Cedar Place Ln	0.43mi	3/2.5	1,604 (-8%)	2mo	$279,490	$174	63
4230 Laurel Oak Cir	0.40mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,989 (+14%)	1mo	$329,890	$166	51
1131 Cedar Place Ln	0.41mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,989 (+14%)	1mo	$326,340	$164	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.67% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-66,698
• Equity at exit: $58,305

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.40×
• Total profit: $-108,745
• Equity at exit: $54,004

Cash invested: $77,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77459

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 1229
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,323 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,458
• Tax from tax record: −$710 /mo · $8,525/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$37
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$488
• Net cashflow: $-486

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,938

Max offer price $192,109

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-329	-5% $-408	+0% $-486	+5% $-565	+10% $-644
Rent	-10% $-670	-5% $-578	+0% $-486	+5% $-394	+10% $-303
Rate	-1.0pp $-346	-0.5pp $-416	base $-486	+0.5pp $-558	+1.0pp $-632

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,500
• Closing costs: $8,340
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1055 Memorial Bend Blvd Missouri City, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	994	$2,514	$2.53	0d	118	0.47mi
2707 Troy Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.5	2082	$2,245	$1.08	3d	1	0.65mi
2709 Troy Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.5	2082	$2,245	$1.08	22d	1	0.65mi
3106 Presley Jane Ct Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	2109	$2,271	$1.08	7d	1	0.93mi
17318 Edgehaven Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1448	$1,695	$1.17	22d	1	1.25mi
3618 Quail Meadow Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1618	$1,966	$1.22	45d	1	1.31mi
9944 Highway 6 Missouri City, TX	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1307	$2,775	$2.12	0d	17	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $37 · $444/yr

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending 469-char remark

   Show marketing remark (469 chars)

   Welcome to this charming property located in a desirable neighborhood. This spacious home features three bedrooms, two bathrooms, a modern kitchen, and a cozy living area perfect for entertaining. The backyard is ideal for outdoor activities and relaxation. Enjoy the convenience of nearby shops, restaurants, and parks. Don't miss out on this opportunity. Washer, dryer, and refrigerator are included. New grass will be installed in the front yard upon tenant move-in.

2. 2026-05-06
   status Pending 469-char remark

   Show marketing remark (469 chars)

   Welcome to this charming property located in a desirable neighborhood. This spacious home features three bedrooms, two bathrooms, a modern kitchen, and a cozy living area perfect for entertaining. The backyard is ideal for outdoor activities and relaxation. Enjoy the convenience of nearby shops, restaurants, and parks. Don't miss out on this opportunity. Washer, dryer, and refrigerator are included. New grass will be installed in the front yard upon tenant move-in.

3. 2026-04-28
   price $278,000 469-char remark

   Show marketing remark (469 chars)

   Welcome to this charming property located in a desirable neighborhood. This spacious home features three bedrooms, two bathrooms, a modern kitchen, and a cozy living area perfect for entertaining. The backyard is ideal for outdoor activities and relaxation. Enjoy the convenience of nearby shops, restaurants, and parks. Don't miss out on this opportunity. Washer, dryer, and refrigerator are included. New grass will be installed in the front yard upon tenant move-in.

4. 2026-04-14
   price $299,500 469-char remark

   Show marketing remark (469 chars)

   Welcome to this charming property located in a desirable neighborhood. This spacious home features three bedrooms, two bathrooms, a modern kitchen, and a cozy living area perfect for entertaining. The backyard is ideal for outdoor activities and relaxation. Enjoy the convenience of nearby shops, restaurants, and parks. Don't miss out on this opportunity. Washer, dryer, and refrigerator are included. New grass will be installed in the front yard upon tenant move-in.

5. 2026-02-27
   listed $315,000 Active 469-char remark

   Show marketing remark (469 chars)

   Welcome to this charming property located in a desirable neighborhood. This spacious home features three bedrooms, two bathrooms, a modern kitchen, and a cozy living area perfect for entertaining. The backyard is ideal for outdoor activities and relaxation. Enjoy the convenience of nearby shops, restaurants, and parks. Don't miss out on this opportunity. Washer, dryer, and refrigerator are included. New grass will be installed in the front yard upon tenant move-in.

6. 2025-01-10
   historical $2,000
7. 2025-01-06
   listed $2,000
8. 2023-12-12
   historical $2,000
9. 2023-12-04
   listed $2,000
10. 2020-10-23
    soldstatus Sold 231-char remark

    Show marketing remark (231 chars)

    Stop in and see this darling new construction home built by Rausch Coleman Homes. This home has 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, with a 2 car garage. This home is a show stopper, so schedule your appointment today, so you don't miss out!

11. 2020-05-27
    status Pending 231-char remark

    Show marketing remark (231 chars)

    Stop in and see this darling new construction home built by Rausch Coleman Homes. This home has 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, with a 2 car garage. This home is a show stopper, so schedule your appointment today, so you don't miss out!

12. 2020-04-29
    listed $228,020 Active 231-char remark

    Show marketing remark (231 chars)

    Stop in and see this darling new construction home built by Rausch Coleman Homes. This home has 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, with a 2 car garage. This home is a show stopper, so schedule your appointment today, so you don't miss out!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,525 · $710/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,525 · $710/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,872
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,572
• − Property taxes: −$8,525
• − Insurance: −$1,390
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,230
• − Management: −$2,230
• − HOA: −$444
• − Depreciation: −$8,087
• Taxable loss: −$10,606
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,545
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,289/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This home requires moderate renovations, focusing on exterior siding and roof replacement, to significantly improve its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Exterior siding — Significant wear and tear
• Major Roof — Aged appearance

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace roof — Critical structural component

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Exterior siding · Significant wear and tear	Major	$15,000–50,000
Roof · Aged appearance	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$30,000–100,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace roof — Critical structural component ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Missouri City

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #526
• US rank: #10308

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Missouri City, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• City population: 123,513
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,221
• Household income: $129,151
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1004.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 26% Asian 22% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 8% Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.67%
• Current HPI: 212.3573
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.15%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+21.9% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-06 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $278,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $299,500 HARMLS
• 2026-02-27 Listed $315,000 HARMLS
• 2025-01-10 Rental Removed $2,000 HARMLS
• 2025-01-06 Listed for Rent $2,000 HARMLS
• 2023-12-12 Rental Removed $2,000 HARMLS
• 2023-12-04 Listed for Rent $2,000 HARMLS
• 2020-10-23 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2020-05-27 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-04-29 Listed $228,020 HARMLS

Property tax history

+63.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,525 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.