The Piedmont Plan · Cleveland, TN 37323

$278,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,501 sqft · SingleFamily · 195 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.1/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• 1% rule +0.8/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

An outstanding ranch plan, the Piedmont is efficiently packed with all the essential elements demanded by today's lifestyles and several surprising touches. This home greets you with a covered front porch that leads to an open layout with a front flex room and a centrally located island kitchen. The spacious family room has direct access to the rear yard, which is also enjoyed through views from the luxurious owner's suite. Secondary bedrooms are served by deep walk-in closets and a conveniently located hall bath and laundry room.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Island kitchen
• Open layout

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• OPEN LAYOUT
• ISLAND KITCHEN
• DIRECT ACCESS TO REAR YARD
• LUXURIOUS OWNER'S SUITE
• DEEP WALK-IN CLOSETS

🏗️ New construction. The $278,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $302,594.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $279k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-694 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $202k (27.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $177k (36.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $177k (36.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#55 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Cleveland (urban): math 23% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #85 of 139 in TN (top 61%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Park View Elementary School (math 42% / reading 37%, grade F, #231 of 952 statewide, top 26%, 463 students, 0% FRL); Ocoee Middle School (math 32% / reading 33%, grade F, #81 of 333 statewide, top 26%, 997 students, 0% FRL); Walker Valley High School (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #28 of 332 statewide, top 9%, 1,498 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 53% district-wide (53 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 554 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 768 units permitted in Bradley County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bradley County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 195 days — a 12% lower offer ($245k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $176,874 (36.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 195 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.58% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.54%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.83%
• DSCR: 0.56
• GRM: 14.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $302,594
• List price: $278,900
• Delta: -7.83%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
713 Minnis Rd	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,440 (-4%)	12mo	$279,900	$194	71
3922 Billie Ln NE	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,618 (+8%)	6mo	$306,000	$189	62
4139 Hines Ln NE	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,618 (+8%)	11mo	$297,000	$184	55
3931 Billie Ln NE	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,618 (+8%)	15mo	$303,215	$187	53
4044 Billie Ln NE	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,618 (+8%)	11mo	$315,000	$195	53
3947 Billie Ln NE	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,618 (+8%)	16mo	$304,215	$188	51
3030 Holly Brook Cir NE	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,319 (-12%)	0mo	$265,000	$201	51
3191 Holly Brook Cir NE	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,352 (-10%)	10mo	$260,000	$192	48
2242 Chelle Dr NE	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,618 (+8%)	7mo	$339,290	$210	48
3127 Holly Brook Cir NE	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,308 (-13%)	1mo	$250,000	$191	46
1268 Powerline Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,311 (-13%)	13mo	$279,000	$213	40
3213 Rolling Meadow Way NE	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,700 (+13%)	7mo	$324,900	$191	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -33.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.10×
• Total profit: $-93,199
• Equity at exit: $45,118

10-year hold

• IRR: -42.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.63×
• Total profit: $-137,951
• Equity at exit: $26,163

Cash invested: $84,726 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 25 active · 19 under contract
• Months of supply: 9.4 mo (11%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $324,500 ($202/sqft)
• Median days on market: 76 d
• This list price: 20% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -0.4% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 37323

• Home prices YoY: -23.5%
• Active inventory: 554
• Price-to-rent: 13.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,769 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,587
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$378 /mo · $4,539/yr
• Insurance: −$126
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$371
• Net cashflow: $-694

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,647

Max offer price $202,192

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-485	-5% $-589	+0% $-694	+5% $-798	+10% $-903
Rent	-10% $-834	-5% $-764	+0% $-694	+5% $-624	+10% $-554
Rate	-1.0pp $-541	-0.5pp $-617	base $-694	+0.5pp $-772	+1.0pp $-852

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,649
• Closing costs: $9,078
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1726 31st St NE Cleveland, TN	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,450	$1.32	2d	1	0.66mi
3117 Holly Brook Cir NE Cleveland, TN	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,695	$1.36	5d	1	0.67mi
3221 Rolling Meadow Way Cleveland, TN	4.0	2.0	1768	$2,525	$1.43	139d	1	0.73mi
1864 Gate Tower Way NE Cleveland, TN	2.0	2.5	1280	$1,500	$1.17	5d	1	0.81mi
3217 Green Turtle Ln NE Cleveland, TN	2.0	2.5	1394	$1,995	$1.43	2d	1	0.90mi
1695 Stonebriar Dr NE Cleveland, TN	2.0	2.5	1280	$1,395	$1.09	5d	1	0.91mi
3812 Red Cardinal Dr NE Cleveland, TN	2.0	2.5	1200	$1,400	$1.17	5d	1	1.23mi
3849 Red Cardinal Dr NE Cleveland, TN	2.0	2.5	1200	$1,350	$1.12	5d	1	1.27mi
3845 Red Cardinal Dr NE Cleveland, TN	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,250	$1.14	5d	1	1.28mi
1217 Angie Ln NE Cleveland, TN	2.0	2.5	1240	$1,600	$1.29	5d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $278,900 Active 195 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $278,900 Active 194 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $278,900 Active 193 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $278,900 Active 192 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $278,900 Active 191 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $278,900 Active 190 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $278,900 Active 189 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $278,900 Active 188 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $278,900 Active 187 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $278,900 Active 186 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $278,900 Active 185 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $278,900 Active 184 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $278,900 Active 183 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $278,900 Active 177 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $278,900 Active 176 DOM
16. 2026-09-03
    days on market $278,900 Active 175 DOM
17. 2026-09-01
    days on market $278,900 Active 173 DOM
18. 2026-08-30
    days on market $278,900 Active 171 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $278,900 Active 170 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $278,900 Active 169 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $278,900 Active 168 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $278,900 Active 166 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $278,900 Active 165 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $278,900 Active 164 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $278,900 Active 163 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $278,900 Active 162 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $278,900 Active 161 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $278,900 Active 160 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $278,900 Active 159 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $278,900 Active 158 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $278,900 Active 157 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $278,900 Active 156 DOM
33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $278,900 Active 155 DOM
34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $278,900 Active 154 DOM
35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $278,900 Active 153 DOM
36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $278,900 Active 152 DOM
37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $278,900 Active 151 DOM
38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $278,900 Active 150 DOM
39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $278,900 Active 149 DOM
40. 2026-08-07
    pricedays on market $278,900 Active 148 DOM
41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $288,900 Active 147 DOM
42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $288,900 Active 146 DOM
43. 2026-08-04
    days on market $288,900 Active 145 DOM
44. 2026-08-03
    days on market $288,900 Active 144 DOM
45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $288,900 Active 141 DOM
46. 2026-07-29
    days on market $288,900 Active 139 DOM
47. 2026-07-27
    days on market $288,900 Active 137 DOM
48. 2026-07-25
    days on market $288,900 Active 135 DOM
49. 2026-07-24
    days on market $288,900 Active 134 DOM
50. 2026-07-23
    days on market $288,900 Active 133 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,225
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,950
• − Property taxes: −$4,539
• − Insurance: −$1,513
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,698
• − Management: −$1,698
• − Depreciation: −$8,803
• Taxable loss: −$13,976
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,354
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,972/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This well-maintained ranch home with modern updates and a good condition score is ready for a new owner. It offers a great layout and potential for further value increases with minor improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can attract more buyers ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Improves home's marketability and adds value ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 21/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Mayfield Elementary F TN #654/952 Nat'l #33,738/41,679 Middle Cleveland Middle F TN #147/333 Nat'l #10,204/14,009 High Cleveland High F TN #208/332 Nat'l #14,713/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cleveland
• NCES district ID: 4700690
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $37,612
• Composite: 21.28/100
• National rank: #8394
• State rank: #85 of 139 in TN

B Composite livability gradescore 70/100

Livability — Cleveland

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #55
• US rank: #7689

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cleveland, TN
• County: Bradley County · 114,901 people
• City population: 99,337
• Metro: Cleveland, TN
• Population (ZIP): 31,948
• Household income: $68,768
• Rent vs Own: 19.7% rent · 80.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 8% of renters

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Population outlook (Bradley County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 114,901 people
• By 2030: 120,137 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 130,125 · +13.2%
• By 2050: 139,257 · +21.2%
• By 2075: 161,664 · +40.7%
• By 2100: 179,767 · +56.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Subsaharan African 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Bradley

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.9) · D 20.0% · R 78.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.2pp toward R · 2008: -49.7pp · 2024: -58.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.9 2020: R+55.3 2016: R+59.1 2012: R+53.9 2008: R+49.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.38%
• Current HPI: 287.3643
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Cleveland, TN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-12 Listed $288,900 Zillow