508 Pine Circle Cir · Lake Almanor Peninsula, CA 96137

$485,000

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,397 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 42 Days on market

Built 1994 0.35 ac lot $202/sqft · 25% below area Est $646k · 25% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +5.7/10.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Nestled on a quiet cul-de-sac in the highly sought-after Lake Almanor Pines community, this charming mountain cabin offers lake views and the perfect blend of comfort, space, and mountain living. Featuring 3 bedrooms, a loft, and 2.5 bathrooms, the home is thoughtfully designed for both relaxation and entertaining. Two bedrooms are conveniently located on the main level, while the lower level includes an additional bedroom, full bathroom, and a cozy separate living area ideal for guests or extra sleeping space. The loft provides even more accommodations with a queen bed and two single beds, along with a convenient half bath. The well-appointed kitchen overlooks the inviting living room, com

Key facts

• Lake views
• Mountain living
• Hookups for two rvs

Tags

• LAKE VIEWS
• MOUNTAIN LIVING
• WELL-APPOINTED KITCHEN
• EXPANSIVE FRONT AND REAR DECKS
• HOOKUPS FOR TWO RVS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located on a cul-de-sac; Has a view; Lot approximately 0.35 acres; Paved road access

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Asphalt driveway; RV/boat parking with RV access; Garage door opener
• Utilities: Electricity available; Propane; Public water available; Public sewer available
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two levels / two-story
• Construction: Frame construction with wood siding; Composition roof; Concrete perimeter foundation; Built on level topography
• Exterior features: RV hookup; Deck; Shed(s); Partial fencing; Other fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Wood stove heating; Attic fan for cooling
• Interior features: High ceilings with vaulted areas; Double-pane windows; Window treatments; Wood burning stove
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Washer hookup; Basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $485k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $367 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $425k (12.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $425k (12.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 1.2% in Lake Almanor Peninsula — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#781 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Plumas Unified (rural): math 21% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #306 of 517 in CA (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 240 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 39 units permitted in Plumas County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (1.4% local appreciation)).
• Plumas County population projected at -42% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $136k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($470k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $425,000 (12.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.24%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $646,309
• List price: $485,000
• Delta: -24.96%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
624 Deep Forest Rd	0.46mi	3/3.0 (+1)	2,236 (-7%)	10mo	$624,500	$279	52
638 Peninsula Drive Dr	0.61mi	3/3.0 (+1)	2,610 (+9%)	7mo	$1,875,000	$718	44
604 Cedar Canyon Road Rd	0.65mi	3/2.0 (+1)	2,221 (-7%)	12mo	$845,000	$380	40
215 Peninsula Drive Dr	0.62mi	3/3.0 (+1)	2,117 (-12%)	14mo	$570,000	$269	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.38% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.30×
• Total profit: $41,269
• Equity at exit: $175,159

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.23×
• Total profit: $167,706
• Equity at exit: $240,373

Cash invested: $135,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96137

• Home prices YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 240
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,250 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,543
• Tax from tax record: −$246 /mo · $2,946/yr
• Insurance: −$202
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$892
• Net cashflow: $367

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,786

Max offer price $485,000

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $121,250
• Closing costs: $14,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
601 W Burnt Cedar Rd Westwood, CA	3.0	3.0	2100	$4,250	$2.02	44d	1	1.17mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $485,000 Active 42 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $485,000 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $485,000 Active 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $485,000 Active 39 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $485,000 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $485,000 Active 36 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $485,000 Active 35 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $485,000 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $485,000 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $485,000 Active 31 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $485,000 Active 30 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $485,000 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $485,000 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $485,000 Active 25 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $485,000 Active 24 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $485,000 Active 23 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $485,000 Active 22 DOM
18. 2026-05-07
    listed $485,000 Active 1151-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,946 · $246/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,686 · $307/mo
• Expected delta: +$740/yr (+$62/mo · 25.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥89°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 21 unhealthy d/yr today · 25 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $51,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,168
• − Property taxes: −$2,946
• − Insurance: −$2,425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,080
• − Management: −$4,080
• − Depreciation: −$14,109
• Taxable loss: −$3,808
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$914
• After-tax cash flow: $5,312/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Plumas Unified
• NCES district ID: 0631170
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $46,935
• Composite: 27.89/100
• National rank: #6870
• State rank: #306 of 517 in CA

Livability — Lake Almanor Peninsula

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #781
• US rank: #22469

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Almanor Peninsula, CA
• Population (ZIP): 2,717

Population outlook (Plumas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,564 people
• By 2030: 14,014 · -10.0%
• By 2040: 11,197 · -28.1%
• By 2050: 9,069 · -41.7%
• By 2075: 5,573 · -64.2%
• By 2100: 3,392 · -78.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8% Native American 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Plumas

• 2024 margin: R (+16.9) · D 39.9% · R 56.9% · Other 3.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.0pp toward R · 2008: -12.0pp · 2024: -16.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.9 2020: R+16.7 2016: R+21.0 2012: R+17.2 2008: R+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.38%
• Current HPI: 153.1005
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Listed $485,000 PAR

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,946 · -0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.