3757 Deep River Rd · Lincoln, MI 48658

$99,500

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,420 sqft · SingleFamily · 73 Days on market

Built 1933 1.12 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.3/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This home has a lot of old time charm but with many wonderful modern features! A handicap ramp, new roof, new hot water tank, solar panels, new generator and many newer features! It's a must see!

Key facts

• Pole barn
• Quiet rural setting
• Spacious lot

Tags

• POLE BARN
• SPACIOUS LOT
• QUIET RURAL SETTING
• PEACEFUL SURROUNDINGS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential; Structure style: 2 Story; Acreage: 1.12 acres; Roads: Country; Frontage approx. 315 ft; Zoning: Residential

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage with 4 parking spaces; Additional parking for 3 or more vehicles
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic system; Natural gas; Electrical service available
• Home design: Residential 2-story home; Built in 1933; Corner lot (house on corner of Johnsfield Rd and Deep River Rd); Facing east (side of street: E)
• Construction: Wood construction; Basement foundation; Year built: 1933
• Exterior features: Wood exterior; Deck; Porch; Pole barn outbuilding; Rural property setting; Large lot (65+ ft. frontage); Road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on main level (12 x 15) with laminate flooring; Range/Oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Main-level bedroom (8 x 11) with laminate flooring; Second-level bedroom (9 x 14) with carpet; Second-level bedroom (approx. 9' wide) with carpet; Second-level bedroom (12 x 8) with carpet
• Flooring: Laminate in bedroom 1, bathroom, and kitchen; Carpet in living room and multiple upstairs bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level) with laminate flooring
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: 7 total rooms; Main floor full bathroom; Basement (block foundation)
• Laundry & utility: Basement present (block)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $350 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $94k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.5% vs local median 3.1% in Lincoln — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#428 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Standish-Sterling Community Schools (rural): math 37% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #168 of 540 in MI (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Standishsterling Central Elementary School (math 38% / reading 41%, grade F, #606 of 1,397 statewide, top 48%, 636 students, 67% FRL); Standishsterling Central Jrsr High School (math 36% / reading 63%, grade D, #154 of 713 statewide, top 25%, 694 students, 58% FRL).
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 30 units permitted in Arenac County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $688 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Arenac County population projected at -32% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($94k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $59k; list at $100k implies a 69% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1933 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $93,530 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1933 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.09%
• DSCR: 1.67
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.22×
• Total profit: $6,197
• Equity at exit: $14,836

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.23×
• Total profit: $34,149
• Equity at exit: $8,603

Cash invested: $27,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48658

• Home prices YoY: -29.6%
• Active inventory: 41
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,283 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$522
• Tax from tax record: −$100 /mo · $1,204/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$270
• Net cashflow: $350

Break-even live

Break-even rent $840

Max offer price $99,500

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $407	-5% $379	+0% $350	+5% $322	+10% $294
Rent	-10% $249	-5% $300	+0% $350	+5% $401	+10% $452
Rate	-1.0pp $400	-0.5pp $376	base $350	+0.5pp $325	+1.0pp $298

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,875
• Closing costs: $2,985
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $99,500 Active 73 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $99,500 Active 72 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,500 Active 70 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,500 Active 69 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,500 Active 68 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,500 Active 67 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,500 Active 65 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $99,500 Active 64 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,500 Active 61 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $99,500 Active 60 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,500 Active 59 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,500 Active 58 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $99,500 Active 55 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,500 Active 54 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,500 Active 53 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,500 Active 52 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,500 Active 51 DOM
18. 2026-04-21
    price $99,500
19. 2026-04-09
    listed $99,900 Active
20. 2017-06-23
    soldstatus $59,000 195-char remark

    Show marketing remark (195 chars)

    This home has a lot of old time charm but with many wonderful modern features! A handicap ramp, new roof, new hot water tank, solar panels, new generator and many newer features! It's a must see!

21. 2017-06-23
    soldstatus $59,000 195-char remark

    Show marketing remark (195 chars)

    This home has a lot of old time charm but with many wonderful modern features! A handicap ramp, new roof, new hot water tank, solar panels, new generator and many newer features! It's a must see!

22. 2017-06-23
    soldstatus $59,000

    Show marketing remark (195 chars)

    This home has a lot of old time charm but with many wonderful modern features! A handicap ramp, new roof, new hot water tank, solar panels, new generator and many newer features! It's a must see!

23. 2016-09-19
    listed $64,900 195-char remark

    Show marketing remark (195 chars)

    This home has a lot of old time charm but with many wonderful modern features! A handicap ramp, new roof, new hot water tank, solar panels, new generator and many newer features! It's a must see!

24. 2016-09-19
    listed $64,900 195-char remark

    Show marketing remark (195 chars)

    This home has a lot of old time charm but with many wonderful modern features! A handicap ramp, new roof, new hot water tank, solar panels, new generator and many newer features! It's a must see!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,204 · $100/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,368 · $114/mo
• Expected delta: +$164/yr (+$14/mo · 13.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,401
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,574
• − Property taxes: −$1,204
• − Insurance: −$498
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,232
• − Management: −$1,232
• − Depreciation: −$2,895
• Taxable income: $2,768
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$664
• After-tax cash flow: $3,540/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Standish-Sterling Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2632940
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $39,526
• Composite: 36.76/100
• National rank: #4573
• State rank: #168 of 540 in MI

Livability — Lincoln

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #428
• US rank: #11892

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,806

Population outlook (Arenac County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 14,036 people
• By 2030: 13,189 · -6.0%
• By 2040: 11,309 · -19.4%
• By 2050: 9,616 · -31.5%
• By 2075: 6,776 · -51.7%
• By 2100: 4,997 · -64.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 17% Lithuanian 12% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · South Korea, Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Arenac

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.6) · D 29.1% · R 69.7% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -44.9pp toward R · 2008: 4.3pp · 2024: -40.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.6 2020: R+35.7 2016: R+33.1 2012: R+4.9 2008: D+4.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.68%
• Current HPI: 186.6558
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+53.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $99,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-09 Listed $99,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2017-06-23 Sold (Public Records) $59,000 Public Records
• 2017-06-23 Sold (MLS) $59,000 REALCOMP
• 2017-06-23 Sold (MLS) $59,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2016-09-19 Listed $64,900 REALCOMP
• 2016-09-19 Listed $64,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

+6.3%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,204 · +15.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.