6552 W 11 1/2 Mile Rd · Elk, MI 49644

$125,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 860 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1974 1.18 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.0/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover this charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath ranch-style cottage tucked back off the road on a private, wooded 1.18-acre parcel in Irons, MI. The setting is peaceful and secluded, yet conveniently located just off N Brooks Road and only moments from Dublin. The home is an older mobile that has been thoughtfully added onto over the years, creating a more spacious layout with both front and back decks and even a small atrium off the shower--perfect for plants or a cozy spa-like touch. While the home does need some TLC, it's priced accordingly and offers loads of potential for the right buyer. Bring your paintbrush and tools, and with a little sweat equity you can transform this cottage into a delightful up-north retreat worth significantly more. A great opportunity to invest in a quiet, wooded setting close to all the recreational amenities the Irons area is known for.

Key facts

• Front and back decks
• Quiet wooded setting
• 1.18 acre lot

Tags

• PRIVATE WOODED PARCEL
• FRONT AND BACK DECKS
• SMALL ATRIUM OFF SHOWER
• QUIET WOODED SETTING
• RECREATIONAL AMENITIES

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Well water; Propane water heater
• Home design: Ranch-style single-family home; One-story
• Construction: Built in 1974; Wood siding; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Wooded lot; Shed(s) on the property

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Wall unit cooling
• Interior features: Insulated windows; 6 total rooms; Crawl space basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-54 ($-644/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $116k (7.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $86k (31.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $86k (31.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Baldwin Community Schools (rural): math 21% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #618 of 760 in MI (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 85% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Baldwin Elementary School (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,203 of 1,397 statewide, top 87%, 224 students, 97% FRL); Baldwin Junior High School (math 2% / reading 22%, grade F, #466 of 493 statewide, top 95%, 99 students, 98% FRL); Baldwin Senior High School (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #481 of 713 statewide, top 81%, 119 students, 96% FRL).
• Market conditions: 65 active listings in the ZIP; 30 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Lake County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $86,243 (31.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.84%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.85×
• Total profit: $64,594
• Equity at exit: $112,610

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.51×
• Total profit: $192,775
• Equity at exit: $242,848

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49644

• Home prices YoY: 12.6%
• Active inventory: 65
• Price-to-rent: 12.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $862 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$27 /mo · $329/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$181
• Net cashflow: $-54

Break-even live

Break-even rent $930

Max offer price $115,519

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $17	-5% $-18	+0% $-54	+5% $-89	+10% $-124
Rent	-10% $-122	-5% $-88	+0% $-54	+5% $-20	+10% $14
Rate	-1.0pp $9	-0.5pp $-22	base $-54	+0.5pp $-86	+1.0pp $-119

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $125,000 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $125,000 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 2 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   remarks 699-char remark
6. 2026-06-16
   listed $125,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $329 · $27/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,127 · $94/mo
• Expected delta: +$798/yr (+$67/mo · 242.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,349
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$329
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$828
• − Management: −$828
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable loss: −$2,899
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$696
• After-tax cash flow: $52/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baldwin Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2603810
• Math proficiency: 21% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $27,638
• Composite: 22.56/100
• National rank: #13447
• State rank: #618 of 760 in MI

Livability — Elk

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,846

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,933 people
• By 2030: 10,503 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 9,470 · -13.4%
• By 2050: 8,526 · -22.0%
• By 2075: 7,160 · -34.5%
• By 2100: 5,634 · -48.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Iranian 4% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.2) · D 33.2% · R 65.4% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -44.5pp toward R · 2008: 12.3pp · 2024: -32.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.2 2020: R+26.2 2016: R+22.9 2012: D+5.0 2008: D+12.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 26.53%
• Current HPI: 236.7989
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listed $125,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-06-15 Listed $125,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-06-15 Listed $125,000 SW Michigan MLS

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2024): $329 · +4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.