4079 Mossy Spring Ln · Houston, TX 77388

$205,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,251 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 2010 3,741 sqft lot Est $216k · 5% under $37/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.2/30.0
• ARV discount +9.9/15.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Looking for a home in the Klein School District? Look no further. This classy, well lighted home is located on a corner lot and is not far from the freeway and local shopping venues. It has high ceilings with an open floor plan that opens up to the living room. Perfect for entertaining.

Key facts

• 3,741 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 2010

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community managed by First Service Residential; Annual association fee of $440; Community amenities include picnic area and playground

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story entry (all main rooms listed on first floor)
• Construction: Built in 2010; Cement siding with stone accents; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Private fenced backyard; Corner lot in a subdivision; Concrete road/drive surface

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas cooktop; Gas oven; Microwave; Garbage disposal
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms total; Primary bedroom on first floor (approx. 15x10); Two additional bedrooms on first floor (each approx. 10x10)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Interior features: High ceilings; Kitchen/family room combo; Kitchen/dining combo; Tub with shower; Ceiling fan(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $205k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-32 ($-386/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $199k (2.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $205k).
• Recommended offer: $199k (2.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Klein ISD (suburban): math 41% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #213 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Zwink El (math 44% / reading 46%, grade D-, #1,133 of 4,322 statewide, top 27%, 948 students, 56% FRL); Schindewolf Int (math 31% / reading 43%, grade F, #756 of 1,662 statewide, top 47%, 1,152 students, 55% FRL); Klein H S (math 58% / reading 67%, grade B-, #234 of 1,632 statewide, top 14%, 3,352 students, 45% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 330 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $199,323 (2.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.72%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $216,423
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21831 Mossy Field Ln	0.17mi	3/2.5	1,271 (+2%)	0mo	$220,000	$173	87
4071 Mossy Place Ln	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,199 (-4%)	6mo	$200,000	$167	85
21755 Mossy Field Ln	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,199 (-4%)	9mo	$222,500	$186	80
3938 Falvel Shadow Creek Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,394 (+11%)	4mo	$229,500	$165	74
3962 Mossy Place Ln	0.23mi	3/2.5	1,388 (+11%)	3mo	$199,900	$144	67
22102 Falvel Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,208 (-3%)	9mo	$199,000	$165	66
21531 Roseville Dr	0.48mi	3/1.0	1,196 (-4%)	6mo	$190,000	$159	61
3927 Falvel Cove Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,434 (+15%)	4mo	$259,000	$181	56
21507 Meadowhill Dr	0.71mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,188 (-5%)	2mo	$217,000	$183	52
3327 Haydee Rd	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,335 (+7%)	8mo	$224,900	$168	49
3323 Hartfield Ln	0.74mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,190 (-5%)	9mo	$218,000	$183	45
3702 Acorn Way Ln	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,435 (+15%)	6mo	$249,000	$174	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-41,134
• Equity at exit: $30,566

10-year hold

• IRR: -26.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.06×
• Total profit: $-61,096
• Equity at exit: $17,725

Cash invested: $57,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77388

• Home prices YoY: -34.8%
• Rents YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 330
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,065 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax from tax record: −$399 /mo · $4,792/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$37
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$434
• Net cashflow: $-32

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,105

Max offer price $199,323

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $84	-5% $26	+0% $-32	+5% $-90	+10% $-148
Rent	-10% $-195	-5% $-114	+0% $-32	+5% $49	+10% $131
Rate	-1.0pp $71	-0.5pp $20	base $-32	+0.5pp $-85	+1.0pp $-139

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,250
• Closing costs: $6,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4018 Falvel Shadow Creek Dr Spring, TX	4.0	2.0	1458	$1,960	$1.34	13d	1	0.09mi
4209 Spring Stuebner Rd Unit 4246 Spring, TX	2.0	2.0	1277	$1,950	$1.53	1d	1	0.13mi
4209 Spring Stuebner Rd Unit 3228 Spring, TX	3.0	2.0	1584	$2,221	$1.40	0d	1	0.13mi
4209 Spring Stuebner Rd Unit 4242 Spring, TX	3.0	2.0	1584	$2,210	$1.40	13d	1	0.13mi
4209 Spring Stuebner Rd Unit 424 Spring, TX	2.0	2.0	1277	$1,966	$1.54	9d	1	0.13mi
4209 Spring Stuebner Rd Unit 2228 Spring, TX	2.0	2.0	1277	$2,001	$1.57	0d	1	0.13mi
21771 Mossy Field Ln Spring, TX	3.0	3.0	1631	$2,150	$1.32	45d	1	0.16mi
3880 Farm to Market 2920 Spring, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1037	$2,536	$2.45	0d	26	0.60mi
4114 Farm to Market 2920 Spring, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	964	$2,146	$2.22	1d	23	0.62mi
3899 Farm to Market 2920 Unit 2920 Spring, TX	2.0	2.0	1149	$1,796	$1.56	14d	1	0.68mi
3869 Farm to Market 2920 Unit 2920 Spring, TX	2.0	2.0	1056	$1,774	$1.68	26d	1	0.69mi
3402 Almondwood Dr Spring, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,795	$1.27	14d	1	0.81mi
3607 Nutwood Ln Spring, TX	3.0	3.0	1299	$2,399	$1.85	45d	1	0.87mi
4703 Owens Creek Ln Spring, TX	3.0	2.0	1662	$1,920	$1.16	21d	1	1.24mi
21330 N Tangle Creek Ln Spring, TX	3.0	2.0	1231	$1,836	$1.49	45d	1	1.26mi
21400 Big Spring Valley Ave Spring, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1074	$2,370	$2.21	4d	67	1.28mi
5222 Farm to Market 2920 Unit SOSG Spring, TX	2.0	2.0	1173	$1,548	$1.32	14d	1	1.28mi
2953 FM 2920 Rd Spring, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	996	$2,280	$2.29	0d	23	1.36mi
4703 Fleming Downe Ln Spring, TX	3.0	2.0	1490	$1,950	$1.31	26d	1	1.37mi
3789 Spring Cypress Rd Spring, TX	2.0	2.0	1126	$1,589	$1.41	14d	1	1.44mi
5498 Farm to Market 2920 Unit 2920 Spring, TX	2.0	2.0	975	$1,419	$1.46	26d	1	1.49mi
3223 Spring Cypress Rd Spring, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	999	$1,739	$1.74	45d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $37 · $444/yr

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $205,000 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $205,000 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $205,000 Active 16 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $205,000 Active 15 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $205,000 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $205,000 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $205,000 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $205,000 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $205,000 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $205,000 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $205,000 Active 2 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    remarks 459-char remark
13. 2026-06-01
    listed $205,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,792 · $399/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,792 · $399/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,776
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,483
• − Property taxes: −$4,792
• − Insurance: −$1,822
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,982
• − Management: −$1,982
• − HOA: −$444
• − Depreciation: −$5,964
• Taxable loss: −$3,693
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$886
• After-tax cash flow: $501/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Klein ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825740
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $78,288
• Composite: 40.91/100
• National rank: #3615
• State rank: #213 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 53,425
• Household income: $102,323
• Rent vs Own: 32.8% rent · 67.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1419.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Hispanic / Latino 25% Black 18% Two or more races 12% Asian 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -121.68%
• Current HPI: 228.128
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.08%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+121.1% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $205,000 HARMLS
• 2014-11-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-11-07 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2014-10-19 Pending — HARMLS
• 2014-10-09 Pending — HARMLS
• 2014-10-02 Price Changed $122,700 HARMLS
• 2014-09-03 Listed $125,000 HARMLS
• 2010-07-27 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2010-06-15 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2010-06-14 Listed $92,730 HARMLS

Property tax history

+18.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,792 · -6.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.