6111 Blue Paloma Ct · Memphis, FL 34221

$306,800

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,870 sqft · SingleFamily · 30 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $164/sqft · 30% below area Est $440k · 30% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.6/30.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This spacious two-story home features a contemporary open floorplan among the kitchen, living room and dining room on the first floor, perfect for hosting guests. The second floor contains a versatile loft that can double as a media room, as well as all four bedrooms, including an expansive owner's suite with a lavish private bathroom.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026
• Listed 30 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $307k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-37 ($-450/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $301k (1.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $264k (14.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $264k (14.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.9% in Memphis — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#745 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: James Tillman Elementary Magnet School (math 65% / reading 34%, grade D, #1,088 of 2,144 statewide, top 53%, 520 students, 74% FRL); Buffalo Creek Middle School (math 59% / reading 51%, grade B-, #180 of 571 statewide, top 32%, 1,127 students, 44% FRL); Palmetto High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,100 students, 61% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-3.0%/yr); 1452 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 53d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 82% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($302k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $263,639 (14.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.52%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $440,486
• List price: $306,800
• Delta: -30.35%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3415 70th Ct E	0.65mi	4/2.5	1,784 (-5%)	7mo	$395,000	$221	56
3209 77th Ct E	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,878 (+0%)	11mo	$460,000	$245	56
6325 35th Avenue Cir E	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,952 (+4%)	3mo	$406,000	$208	50
3425 70th Gln E	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,656 (-11%)	2mo	$415,000	$251	40
6324 35th Avenue Cir E	0.73mi	4/2.0	1,693 (-10%)	13mo	$330,000	$195	38
3212 77th Ct E	0.62mi	4/2.0	2,121 (+13%)	15mo	$381,000	$180	34
3303 63rd St E	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,767 (-6%)	18mo	$355,000	$201	34
3212 70th Ct E	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,656 (-11%)	17mo	$425,000	$257	33
3409 77th Ct E	0.68mi	4/2.0	2,121 (+13%)	13mo	$375,000	$177	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-59,788
• Equity at exit: $45,745

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-84,833
• Equity at exit: $26,526

Cash invested: $85,904 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 13 active · 14 under contract
• Months of supply: 3.7 mo (27%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $318,340 ($172/sqft)
• Median days on market: 44 d
• This list price: 31% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +37.2% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34221

• Rents YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 1452
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,636 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,609
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$384 /mo · $4,602/yr
• Insurance: −$128
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$554
• Net cashflow: $-37

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,684

Max offer price $301,377

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $175	-5% $69	+0% $-37	+5% $-143	+10% $-250
Rent	-10% $-246	-5% $-142	+0% $-37	+5% $67	+10% $171
Rate	-1.0pp $117	-0.5pp $41	base $-37	+0.5pp $-117	+1.0pp $-198

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,700
• Closing costs: $9,204
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6115 Blue Paloma CT Palmetto, FL	5.0	2.5	2217	$2,825	$1.27	32d	1	0.02mi
6045 Bird Key Pl Palmetto, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	986	$2,448	$2.48	17d	203	0.02mi
9940 Mahaffey DR Palmetto, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1106	$2,044	$1.85	73d	1	0.02mi
6010 33rd Dr E Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1287	$2,115	$1.64	52d	1	1.00mi
2789 89th Street Cir E Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.0	2150	$2,450	$1.14	73d	1	1.13mi
4014 84th Ct E Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1555	$2,516	$1.62	70d	1	1.25mi
2305 50th Street Cir E Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.5	1996	$2,545	$1.28	16d	1	1.26mi
2706 89th Street Cir E Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.0	1637	$2,400	$1.47	35d	1	1.28mi
3303 54th St E Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1285	$2,000	$1.56	52d	1	1.31mi
7127 48th Ave E Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.5	2110	$1,800	$0.85	47d	1	1.32mi
4117 84th Ct E Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1448	$2,466	$1.70	70d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-08
   pricedays on market $306,800 Active 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $306,400 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   pricedays on market $306,400 Active 25 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $314,340 Active 24 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   pricedays on market $314,340 Active 23 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,637
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,186
• − Property taxes: −$4,602
• − Insurance: −$1,534
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,531
• − Management: −$2,531
• − Depreciation: −$8,925
• Taxable loss: −$5,672
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,361
• After-tax cash flow: $912/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $9,350–$28,050 screening

This spacious two-story home features a contemporary open floorplan and is in good condition with minimal repairs needed. It has a good resale and rental value with potential for further improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Modern appliances improve the home's appeal to potential buyers ↑
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Upgraded fixtures can increase the home's value ↑
• Both Flooring replacement — New flooring can improve the home's appearance and add value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 44/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary James Tillman Elementary Magnet School D FL #1,088/2,144 Nat'l #12,785/41,679 Middle Buffalo Creek Middle School B- FL #180/571 Nat'l #2,482/14,009 High Palmetto High School F FL #456/667 Nat'l #11,621/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

C Composite livability gradescore 63/100

Livability — Memphis

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #745
• US rank: #16072

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 447,342 people
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 56,208
• Household income: $77,712
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 22% Black 14% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -383.53%
• Current HPI: 302.1458
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.98%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B