315 Cole Rd · Sandy Lake, PA 16145

$100,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 980 sqft · Manufactured · 38 Days on market

Built 1980 1.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.8/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Beautifully updated 14' x 70' manufactured home situated on 1.79 acres across two parcels. This property offers a comfortable and accessible layout with thoughtful updates throughout. Home features newer windows and vinyl siding for easy maintenance composite covered front porch with ramp access. Small back deck, also with ramp for convenience. Updated bathroom and newer flooring throughout most of the home. An addition on the back provides a laundry area. Detached garage for storage or parking. Well and septic system on-site. Second mobile home behind the main residence, previously used for storage.

Key facts

• Small back deck
• Laundry area
• Newer windows

Tags

• UPDATED BATHROOM
• NEWER WINDOWS
• VINYL SIDING
• COMPOSITE COVERED FRONT PORCH
• SMALL BACK DECK
• LAUNDRY AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $23 ($272/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $88k (12.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#438 in PA, #4,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools D-, amenities F.
• Lakeview SD (rural): math 45% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #143 of 539 in PA (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 6 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 62 units permitted in Mercer County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($691 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.6% local appreciation)).
• Mercer County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $87,500 (12.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.97%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.58% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.22×
• Total profit: $6,182
• Equity at exit: $37,190

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.06×
• Total profit: $29,638
• Equity at exit: $51,875

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16145

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 6
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $875 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$102 /mo · $1,230/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$184
• Net cashflow: $23

Break-even live

Break-even rent $846

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $79	-5% $51	+0% $23	+5% $-6	+10% $-34
Rent	-10% $-46	-5% $-12	+0% $23	+5% $57	+10% $92
Rate	-1.0pp $73	-0.5pp $48	base $23	+0.5pp $-3	+1.0pp $-30

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3334 N Main St Unit 3338-3 Sandy Lake, PA	3.0	2.0	700	$875	$1.25	44d	1	1.32mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-24
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-17
   listed $100,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,230 · $102/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,405 · $117/mo
• Expected delta: +$175/yr (+$15/mo · 14.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,500
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$1,230
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$840
• − Management: −$840
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable loss: −$1,421
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$341
• After-tax cash flow: $613/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lakeview SD
• NCES district ID: 4213080
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $49,023
• Composite: 45.12/100
• National rank: #2686
• State rank: #143 of 539 in PA

Livability — Sandy Lake

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #438
• US rank: #4011

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,674

Population outlook (Mercer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 108,341 people
• By 2030: 104,269 · -3.8%
• By 2040: 94,624 · -12.7%
• By 2050: 84,891 · -21.6%
• By 2075: 65,094 · -39.9%
• By 2100: 47,657 · -56.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 5% Romanian 3% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Mercer

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.2) · D 34.5% · R 64.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.9pp toward R · 2008: -0.3pp · 2024: -30.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.2 2020: R+26.0 2016: R+25.0 2012: R+2.5 2008: R+0.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.58%
• Current HPI: 136.729
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Pending — GEBOR
• 2026-03-17 Listed $100,000 GEBOR

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,230 · +11.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.