400 E Pomelo St · Lake Alfred, FL 33850

$250,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,696 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 334 Days on market

Built 1962 0.28 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

BACK ON THE MARKET!!! Great opportunity on a great home in Lake Alfred, Fl. This Block home has more potential than can be stated. All the big items are done. Newer roof, Newer HVAC, partial new flooring and a brand new kitchen that is 95% complete including appliances. Inside, the home boasts a functional layout with cozy living spaces, ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. This could be a 4 or even 5 bedroom home with the right kind of creativity. Perfect for a large family needing some room or anyone with a need for a home office or even if you are looking for an investment property, this home offers a fantastic opportunity in a well-established neighborhood. On a dead end roa

Key facts

• Brand new kitchen
• Newer roof
• Partial new flooring

Tags

• NEWER ROOF
• NEWER HVAC
• PARTIAL NEW FLOORING
• BRAND NEW KITCHEN
• WELL-ESTABLISHED NEIGHBORHOOD
• DEAD END ROAD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot is in city limits, paved road access; Lot dimensions approximately 91 x 135 (about 0.28 acres); Zoned R-1A
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer and septic tank; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; South-facing; Homestead property
• Construction: Block construction; Metal roof; Slab foundation; Built on 1 floor
• Exterior features: Private above-ground pool with deck; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Solid surface counters; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Indoor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $125 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (19.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $200k (19.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#363 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lake Alfred Elementary School (math 43% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,403 of 2,144 statewide, top 67%, 821 students, 49% FRL); Jere L. Stambaugh Middle (math 23% / reading 26%, grade F, #522 of 571 statewide, top 93%, 1,127 students, 65% FRL); Auburndale Senior High School (math 25% / reading 31%, grade F, #464 of 667 statewide, top 70%, 1,716 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools at 56% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 280 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 334 days — a 12% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $250k implies a 285% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $200,213 (19.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 334 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.14%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-32,712
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-18,822
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33850

• Home prices YoY: -8.5%
• Active inventory: 280
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,002 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$42 /mo · $503/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $125

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,844

Max offer price $250,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $266	-5% $195	+0% $125	+5% $-232	+10% $-319
Rent	-10% $-34	-5% $45	+0% $125	+5% $204	+10% $283
Rate	-1.0pp $250	-0.5pp $188	base $125	+0.5pp $60	+1.0pp $-6

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
505 Interlock St Lake Alfred, FL	3.0	2.0	1443	$1,919	$1.33	4d	1	0.63mi
515 S Nekoma Ave Lake Alfred, FL	3.0	2.0	2029	$2,095	$1.03	12d	1	0.75mi
709 Mosley Rd Lake Alfred, FL	2.0	1.0	1980	$1,250	$0.63	25d	1	0.94mi
234 Cattail Way Lake Alfred, FL	4.0	2.0	1689	$1,911	$1.13	15d	1	1.20mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $250,000 Active 334 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $250,000 Active 331 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $250,000 Active 330 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $250,000 Active 329 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $250,000 Active 328 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $250,000 Active 326 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $250,000 Active 323 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $250,000 Active 322 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $250,000 Active 321 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $250,000 Active 320 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    status $250,000 Active 317 DOM
12. 2026-05-22
    status Pending
13. 2025-07-09
    listed $250,000 Active
14. 1995-07-05
    soldstatus $65,000
15. 1974-09-01
    soldstatus $26,300

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $503 · $42/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,075 · $173/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,572/yr (+$131/mo · 312.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,026
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$503
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,922
• − Management: −$1,922
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$2,848
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$684
• After-tax cash flow: $2,178/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lake Alfred

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #363
• US rank: #6406

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Alfred, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 9,757
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 9,757
• Household income: $61,622
• Rent vs Own: 27.2% rent · 72.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 431.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 24% Black 11% Asian 9% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 15% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -32.91%
• Current HPI: 353.941
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+850.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-09 Listed $250,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1995-07-05 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 1974-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $26,300 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $503 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.