30 Moonlight Hl · Hazard, KY 41701

$35,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 701 sqft · SingleFamily · 80 Days on market

Poor condition 0.34 ac lot $50/sqft · 65% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Three bedroom one bath home with covered porch located in Perry County.

Key facts

• 0.34 acre lot
• Listed 80 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $35k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $870 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $35k).
• Recommended offer: $33k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 36.1% vs local median 4.9% in Hazard — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#196 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Perry County (rural): math 23% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #96 of 165 in KY (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 56 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $242 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Perry County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($33k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $32,900 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 36.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 106.54%
• DSCR: 5.74
• GRM: 2.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $99,929
• List price: $35,000
• Delta: -64.98%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
30 Moonlight Hl	0.00mi	3/1.0	700 (-0%)	11mo	$8,000	$11	90

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.08×
• Total profit: $49,764
• Equity at exit: $5,219

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 12.71×
• Total profit: $114,774
• Equity at exit: $3,026

Cash invested: $9,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41701

• Home prices YoY: -14.4%
• Active inventory: 56
• Price-to-rent: 2.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,408 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$184
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$44 /mo · $525/yr
• Insurance: −$15
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$296
• Net cashflow: $870

Break-even live

Break-even rent $306

Max offer price $35,000

Occupancy floor 33%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,750
• Closing costs: $1,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $35,000 Active 80 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $35,000 Active 79 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $35,000 Active 78 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $35,000 Active 77 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $35,000 Active 75 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $35,000 Active 74 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $35,000 Active 71 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $35,000 Active 70 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $35,000 Active 69 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $35,000 Active 67 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $35,000 Active 65 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $35,000 Active 64 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $35,000 Active 63 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $35,000 Active 62 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $35,000 Active 61 DOM
16. 2026-03-30
    listed $35,000 Active 71-char remark

    Show marketing remark (71 chars)

    Three bedroom one bath home with covered porch located in Perry County.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,890
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,961
• − Property taxes: −$525
• − Insurance: −$175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,351
• − Management: −$1,351
• − Depreciation: −$1,018
• Taxable income: $10,509
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,522
• After-tax cash flow: $7,918/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 11 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive repairs and maintenance, including new siding, windows, and flooring. Fresh paint can significantly improve its curb appeal and value.

Repairs flagged

• Major siding — Exposed insulation and weathered
• Major windows — Missing windows
• Major flooring — Damaged and debris

Value-add opportunities

• Resale exterior paint — Fresh paint can significantly improve curb appeal
• Resale interior paint — Fresh paint can improve the home's appearance and value
• Both windows — New windows can improve energy efficiency and increase both resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
siding · Exposed insulation and weathered	Major	$15,000–50,000
windows · Missing windows	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · Damaged and debris	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$45,000–150,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale exterior paint — Fresh paint can significantly improve curb appeal ↑
• Resale interior paint — Fresh paint can improve the home's appearance and value ↑
• Both windows — New windows can improve energy efficiency and increase both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Perry County
• NCES district ID: 2104770
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -19.00%
• Median HH income: $32,540
• Composite: 26.53/100
• National rank: #7196
• State rank: #96 of 165 in KY

Livability — Hazard

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #196
• US rank: #9701

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 16,646

Population outlook (Perry County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,976 people
• By 2030: 23,390 · -6.4%
• By 2040: 20,270 · -18.8%
• By 2050: 17,547 · -29.7%
• By 2075: 12,599 · -49.6%
• By 2100: 9,358 · -62.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 4% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Vietnam
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Perry

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+59.5) · D 19.7% · R 79.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.5pp toward R · 2008: -32.0pp · 2024: -59.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+59.5 2020: R+54.3 2016: R+57.0 2012: R+58.5 2008: R+32.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -24.13%
• Current HPI: 143.629
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Listed $35,000 ImagineMLS